Nick Bunker
@nick_bunker
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economics at @indeed . working dad of two. ❤️ 📈 (he/him)
Pinellas County, FL
Joined October 2008
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Just showed this graph to someone for the first time. Don't think I did enough to prepare them for what they were about to see.
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Some exciting real-time data: got word this afternoon that there is no more cancer in my body!
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Wife peeks over at my laptop and asks, "What is that ancient website you're looking at?"
Folks, it was STATA.
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HAHAHAHAHA
After we all expected a terrible payrolls number, payrolls up by 467,000 and unemployment rate at 4%
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I thought the new BoJack Horseman season was released today. It drops next Friday.
I haven’t been this sad since the last time I watched BoJack Horseman.
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'Unretirements' continue to rise. As of April 2022, 3.3% of workers who were retired a year earlier are now employed.
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Folks, it's not a very good "conspiracy" if adding the misclassified data makes the decline look *BETTER*
Put another way, last month's unemployment rate "should" have been 19.5%, and this month's "should" be 16.3%, adjusting for misclassifications.
So a decline of -3.2pp instead of -1.4pp.
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I am shocked — SHOCKED — to see that fast wage growth made work more attractive for more people and that the corresponding increase in supply cooled wages down a bit.
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Some regrettable personal news: I have skin cancer. And I'm having surgery tomorrow meaning I won't be online when JOLTS is released.
But I'm optimistic that this will soon be behind me and my family and I can go back to puzzling you all with Beveridge Curve graphs soon.
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We interrupt our usual labor market graphs with some personal news:
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Ben Bernanke hit the career trifecta:
A Nobel Prize, a Fed Chairmanship, and being portrayed by Paul Giamatti in an HBO movie.
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I am thrilled to share our family’s good news: earlier this week we welcomed Lewis McKenna Bunker (right) and Henry McKenna Bunker (left) to the world.
They are both absolute delights. The babies and Mom are all doing well!
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Nice graph from
@JosephPolitano
: "Salary growth is highest in the service sectors while price growth is highest in the goods sector—the exact opposite of what a wage-price spiral would predict."
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A positive sign for labor force participation: retirees are returning to work.
More people continue to 'unretire' as the labor market situation improves. The pickup is happening for all workers and those 65 years or older.
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If you're also seeing this graph for the first time, it's a
@calculatedrisk
classic from the Great Recession that's been revived this year.
He updates it every jobs day
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Hey now! Wages and salaries grew by 1.5% OVER THE QUARTER in Q3!
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*through gritted teeth* wow, making this graph in Excel was much easier than it was with ggplot
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August 2022
#JOLTS
Report:
📉 WHOA! A huge drop in job openings. Down by over a million.
📉 Quits rate at 2.7%, private sector rate down to 3%
📈 Layoffs rate still low, but up at tick to 1%
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It’s not just Tom Brady: more and more former retirees are returning to work
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🚨 Attention users of CPS microdata 🚨
According to this guidance from Census, “2022 data for a household will not be able to be matched to any 2021 data.” In other words: no year-over-year CPS flows data for 2022.
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Who’s getting wage increases? Mostly new hires in low-wage service jobs.
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What if I told you that the surge in people quitting their jobs was because they were taking new ones?
I mean, I have. Repeatedly.
But
@emmabgo
does a great job of detailing that story in this piece.
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The 'unretirement' rate rose again in February and is now very slightly above its pre-pandemic average.
We could see this pickup continue if the labor market remains tight, suggesting employment rates of older workers have room to run.
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ZERO JOBS added in leisure and hospitality. 41.5k jobs lost in food services and drinking places.
That has delta variant written all over it
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April 2021
#JOLTS
: WHOA, those headline numbers!
📈 Job openings up to **9.3 MILLION**
📈 Quits rate up to an all-time high of 2.7%
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🚨 📉 New from the Indeed Hiring Lab:
Growth in wages advertised in
@Indeed
US job postings was elevated at 6.5% in November, but down substantially from 9% back in March.
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Dune — a movie about the importance of commodity production for the continued maintenance of supply chains — is truly a film for our times
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Well that doesn't look like a recession!
Payrolls up 528,000 in July, unemployment rate down to 3.5%, employment-to-population ratio up to 60%
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'Unretirements' picked up again in January. While not quite at pre-pandemic level, the unretirement rate is steadily approaching those rates.
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No statistically significant difference in employment rate growth across states that cut off expanded UI early and those who kept it. Another piece of evidence that pandemic-era UI was *not* the major impediment to employment growth.
(From new Sept CPS microdata)
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“[T]he [labor force] participation gap largely disappears once we control for population aging, indicating that participation has recovered a great deal since the large shock induced by the pandemic.”
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“You’re supposed to tweet about the jobs numbers AFTER they come out!”
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Huge revisions as well with the baseline update.
December 2021 growth is now 510k added when the first read was 211k. Nov growth up to 647k.
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Props to the Fed for releasing a Python version of FRB/US. EViews ain't cheap!
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Roughly 81% of the job losses in March were in low average-wage industries.
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👀 📈 Wages growth is picking up according to the
@AtlantaFed
's Wage Growth Tracker.
Median wage growth jumped to 6.7% in June from 6.1% in May.
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Revise your population growth estimates up, everyone! Twins heading our way.
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Yes, inflation is higher than it has been in recent memory. But inflation-adjusted wages for private sector workers are up since the fourth quarter of 2019
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Why are so many unemployed workers feeling less need to jump into a job right now? Among the unemployed, fear about going to workplaces in-person while COVID-19 is still with us is the most commonly cited reason for not searching urgently.
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I’m now firmly in the stage of life when I say “oh, wow, these socks are great” with total sincerity.
Merry Christmas!
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The unemployment rate went up, but that was driven by higher labor force participation.
Employment to population ratio is up to 59.7%
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📉 New data from the Indeed Wage Tracker 📉
Posted wage growth in the US has returned to its pre-pandemic pace.
March data shows annual wage growth of 3.1%, equal to 2019's average.
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Another BIG acceleration in wage growth for workers in leisure & hospitality sector.
Wages & salaries were up 2.4% over the second quarter!
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Who has the best hypothesis for why the goods share of consumption hasn't shifted back to the pre-pandemic trend?
We also now have four years of data on the elevated share of goods spending and the corresponding decline in the services share. Many economists expected these shares to normalize, but thus far, the goods share remains elevated relative to both pre-pandemic levels and trend. 7/
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*whispers* Because ADP only covers the private sector. Mulvaney is asking for data that doesn’t exist.
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Ahead of tomorrow's JOLTS report, here's the latest data from the
@Indeed
Job Postings Index:
Job postings continue to decline and are now down 5.7% month-over-month as of March 3rd. New postings are dropping as well, down 3.9% m-o-m.
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'Unretirements' continue to rise. As of May 2022, 3.4% of workers who said they were retired a year earlier are now employed.
(New from the latest May CPS microdata)
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2021 was the year of the Great 'Resignation from Your Old Job Caused by You Finding A New One.'
Data recently released from the US Census Bureau shows the job-switching rate in Q3 of last year hit 4.5%, the highest since 21 years prior.
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Yes, that means at a time when understanding wage growth trends will be vital, one of the most cited metrics of wage growth might not be available.
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🚨 📉 The latest US data from the Indeed Wage Tracker:
Posted wage growth came in at 3.3% in February, getting closer and closer to its pre-pandemic pace of 3.1%
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'Unretirements' continued to rise in March, with 3.2% of workers who were retired a year earlier now employed. This rate has now passed its pre-pandemic average.
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Wages keep accelerating 💸🔥
Big rise in wage growth according to ECI data for Q2. Year-over-year growth for private sector workers up to 5.7% from 5% last quarter
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May 2022
#JOLTS
Report
💥 Quits rate down a tick to 2.8%
💥 Job openings down slightly to 11.3 million
💥 Layoffs rate flat at 0.9%, just above all-time low
📊 📉 📊 incoming
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🚨 📉 The first read of the Indeed Wage Tracker in 2024:
Posted wage growth came in at 3.6% in January, continuing its steady decline over the past two years. Looking under the hood, we continue to see signs of downward momentum.
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Tech sector layoffs are grabbing headlines, but in total layoffs are still very low.
The layoffs and discharges rate has now been below the pre-pandemic low for 20 straight months.
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~20% of workers without a high school degree are constrained by a noncompete agreement.
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943k jobs added in July, big drop in unemployment to 5.4%. Almost all of the drop in U3 was from a rise in employment.
Love to see it!
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Never been prouder: my wife yelling “JOLTS!” when a woman on The Bachelor announces she quit her job to stay on the show.
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"Replacing the expiring $600-a-week supplements with a percentage of a worker’s former wages could take most states eight to 20 weeks to implement"
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A reminder that monthly jobs reports are first drafts of data and that revisions can be large in recessions:
* When released on 4/3, March report says payrolls down 700k
* Current vintage says March decline was almost *TWICE* that size, 1.37 MILLION.
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A professional football team ran this as a play. I use the term play lightly.
http://t.co/uZbZ5DhnfE
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.
@AtlantaFed
Wage Growth Tracker now up to 4.2%. Last time this metric hit that level was Nov 2007.
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The debate is over: wages are slowing down. It's just a question of when and how this deceleration ends.
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Wage growth continues to slow down, according to new data from the Indeed Wage Tracker.
Year-over-year posted wage growth is running at a 3-month average of 4.3% as of September. It has now retracted more than 80% of its surge from its pre-pandemic pace.
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England vs. Sweden: Battle of the oldest central banks! Get excited!
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November 2022
#JOLTS
Report:
The US labor market is still coming in hot 🔥🔥
📊 Job openings at 10.5 million in November, which is steady from a revised 10.5 in October.
📊 Quits rate ticks up slightly to 2.7%, private sector up to 3%
📊 Layoffs still steady at 0.9%
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👀 Check out the jump in job switcher wage growth! 5.4% in Sept, up from 3.4% just back in May.
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There's roughly 1 job opening for every unemployed worker in the US. Looking at the core unemployment rate shows essentially the same ratio.
Job seekers have the upper hand in the labor market right now.
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Glad to see that Chair Powell and others at the Fed find the
@Indeed
Wage Tracker useful. I did a double take when looking at this figure from Powell's speech this morning.
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The prime-age employment-to-population ratio bounced back to its May level of 80%. Good to see that and hopefully there's more progress in the months ahead.
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After years of rapid growth, US wage growth is headed toward pre-pandemic levels.
The latest data from the Indeed Wage Tracker shows that US posted wages grew 4.5% year-over-year in August 2023, less than half their recent top speed of 9.3% in January 2022.
🧵
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June 2022
#JOLTS
Report:
📉 Big drop in job openings to 10.7 million, from 11.3 in May. Biggest declines in retail and wholesale trade
📊 Quits rate unchanged at 2.8%, private sector steady at 3.1%
📊 Layoffs still very low at 1%
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Thanks for the well wishes, folks! Truly appreciated.
Surgery went well. The melanoma was on my right arm, so I’m in a sling for 2 weeks. Apologies for any typos in near future.
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Literally no study has ever shown the stimulus reduced growth. Not a SINGLE one.
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Wow, big drop in unemployment rate to 8.4%.
And that was for good reasons as LFPR went up.
EPOP up by 1.4 percentage points!
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🚨 It's back!🚨
The latest data from the Indeed Wage Tracker shows posted wages grew 5.3% year-over-year in May
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My new favorite COVID-era "wait, what?" labor market graph: the fairly stunning disconnect between aggregate wages & total employment
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The Indeed Job Postings Index continues to trend down. As of May 3, it's fallen almost 14% over the past year and is down 31% from its peak at the end of 2021.
If openings continue to track postings, there were 8.2 million openings on May 3, down from 8.5 million on Mar 29.
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Alaska Permanent Fund is closest thing to a UBI in US. Impact on the labor market? New from
@mioana
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The descent of posted wage growth is picking up. 💰 📉
Posted wages grew 4.7% year-over-year as of July, according to the latest data from the
@indeed
Wage Tracker. That’s down from 5.1% in June and 6.2% at the beginning of the year.
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Is there a German word for “not a labor shortage, but a situation in which employers might have a harder time hiring than they’d expect due to transitory, pandemic-era reductions in labor supply?"
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Happy birthday to FRED, a truly wonderful resource. You don’t look a day over 25!
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Very clear slowdown in wages and compensation for the private sector according to the Q3 ECI.
Total compensation growth down to 1.1% from 1.5% in Q2, Wages growth down to 1.2% from 1.6%
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Online job postings aren't falling like they were earlier this year. In fact, they aren't falling at all.
The Indeed Job Postings Index has moved sideways over the past 3 months.
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One reason I don’t like the term the “Great Resignation” is that it implies quits are people ‘opting out’.
When really the pickup is quits in being driven by stronger demand for workers.
Quits remain high--just as you would expect in a hot labor market where workers have lots of options (as evidenced by the high number of openings). This picture updates the analysis Willie and I wrote up back in June.
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The labor market is no longer moderating. It's moderated.
The October 2023 JOLTS report adds more fuel to the soft landing fire.
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