Then (2021):. 1. Money was free.2. Stimulus everywhere.3. Tech always wins.4. Bonds hedged stocks.5. “Set it and forget it” worked. Now (2024+):. 1. Money is expensive.2. Austerity is back.3. Tariffs rising.4. Bonds bleed with stocks.5. Lazy portfolios get punished

Overexposure is a funny thing until it's not funny anymore. The ones leaning on 2021 mega-gains will be the poorest coming soon. This isn't a guess, it's mean-reversion

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Risk first, more money second. I never did see Tommy again.

Diversification is mandatory to lower vol and enhance overall longterm returns. It also helps defeat timing risk as we reduce risk as we age. However, this is done inefficiently in most retirement accounts like 401ks and IRAs.

Exposure to bonds isn't safe right now. Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said recent market trends show investors are moving away from the U.S. as the safest place to invest. And it's clear from price action.

Black Swans are rare events. but not as rare as you think. On a normal curve, we'd see these "fat tailed" events occurring far more frequently than the math. or you and I. would predict. These events are often more common that many throw out the normal curve altogether

This is the pinnacle of luxury

I've discovered there's a "crazy to crazy scale" for investors. On one extreme it's memecoiners. On the other it's DCA Bogleheads. Both are nuts - they're completely dogmatic and have tunnel vision. The world. and the market. is far more nuanced

I've discovered there's a "crazy to crazy scale" for investors. On one extreme it's memecoiners. On the other it's DCA Bogleheads. Both are nuts - they're completely dogmatic and have tunnel vision. The world. and the market. is far more nuanced

The uproar from tariffs blurs a much more profound reason for why stock prices are declining and why it's not temporary. * Not investment or tax advice.

While I selectively meet people with foresight and proactive thinking when it comes to managing risk - it's not too late for you to do the same. The "market always comes back", just not on your timeline. * Not tax or financial advise.

Respect risk and you will stay rich for a very, very long time. In mass uncertainty, the average person shouldn't take a strong view or add to their position. They're information (and capital) poor. *Not financial or tax advice.

Respect risk and you will stay rich for a very, very long time. In mass uncertainty, the average person shouldn't take a strong view or add to their position. They're information (and capital) poor. *Not financial or tax advice.

In a world where proficiency is rare - it's easy to stand out.

New money versus old money - what's the real difference?

Your savings account - high yield or not - doesn't outpace inflation after taxes. You will get poorer over time in lost purchasing power. A savings account is for an emergency fund. Money in a savings account isn't "invested" - you should assume it won't be serving you later.

Millionaires next door ($1-$3M) always have the chance to stay millionaires forever. From a portfolio standpoint, it comes down to three core strategies. 1. Enhance real rate of return.2. Hedge and diversity (to reduce downside risk).3. Plan guaranteed income

Ever hear a friend brag about their portfolio being up 15% in a week?. What they might not mention is the possibility of being down 20% the next. This is the effect of market volatility, where rapid price swings can impact gains and losses dramatically.

The bond fund in your portfolio isn't what you think it is. While individual U.S. Treasuries held to maturity are safe, bond funds fluctuate with market conditions. Entry and exit timing in bond funds affects gains or losses—just like stocks.

The millionaire next door may know a thing or two about keeping their wealth. It's not with aggressive, volatile stock picking. It's with diversity and stability. That's why when I look at portfolios - they have more assets than the "active" investors.