Natan
@nataninvesting
Followers
6,615
Following
305
Media
1,046
Statuses
4,602
22y old finance student 👨🏼🎓 | Diving into the stock market and sharing my insights along the way
My portfolio (free) & Tips ⬇️
Joined January 2021
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
オーロラ
• 341828 Tweets
Joost
• 296472 Tweets
CHAWARIN ON STAGE
• 179982 Tweets
FOURTH SINGING TIME
• 119373 Tweets
#withMUSIC
• 97434 Tweets
自分これ
• 59310 Tweets
Fulham
• 58418 Tweets
#不破湊3Dライブ
• 49014 Tweets
#العين_يوكوهاما
• 33172 Tweets
太陽フレアのせい
• 30241 Tweets
カクレンジャー
• 27304 Tweets
PERTHCHIMON LIVE x TARO
• 27040 Tweets
Gvardiol
• 26712 Tweets
マリノス
• 24951 Tweets
Buju
• 20838 Tweets
#FULMCI
• 16235 Tweets
自分の魚
• 15328 Tweets
HeavenlyVoice WithMrC
• 15150 Tweets
わたしの誕生魚
• 14385 Tweets
Dremo
• 13867 Tweets
ホールツアー
• 10079 Tweets
Pinned Tweet
WEEK 18 PORTFOLIO RECAP
My portfolio: +3.28% ☑️
*Benchmark: +3.61% ✅
S&P 500: +0.55% ❌
TOP 5 POSITIONS (total performance)
1) 21.8% $PDD (+63%)
2) 20.0% $PYPL (+9%)
3) 18.5% $BABA (-19%)
4) 15.1% $META (+154%)
5) 6.7% $HOOD (+38%)
BEST PERFORMER OF THE WEEK:
$NIO (+24%)…
5
1
47
🟠 ALIBABA $BABA STOCK IS REALLY UNDERVALUED FOR THE NEXT 5 REASONS:
1) Revenue is growing in the range of 6-10% with a bad Chinese macro environment (during the first months of 2024 it's improving).
2) The business is incredibly diversified as you can see in the pictures, the…
166
144
902
What is the best investment opportunity in the list?
$BABA Fwd PE: 8
$PYPL Fwd PE: 13
$AAPL Fwd PE: 25
$TSLA Fwd PE: 57
$PLTR Fwd PE: 68
$SOFI Fwd PE: 88
215
52
519
🟠 ALIBABA $BABA 2014 VS 2023
ALIBABA IN 2014
- Revenue: RMB 76B
- Free cash flow: RMB 32B
- Cash on hand: RMB 128B
ALIBABA TODAY
- Revenue: RMB 869B (12X)
- Free cash flow: RMB 166B (5X)
- Cash on hand: RMB 524B (4X)
12X revenue, 5X FCF, 4X Cash in 10 years but meanwhile…
57
74
406
🟠 MY SIMPLIFIED $BABA VALUATION MODEL IN 3 MINUTES.
ASSUMPTIONS:
2023 Revenue: $130.45B
5Y Revenue CAGR: 8%
Terminal Profit Margin: 16%
Terminal PE Ratio: 15
Buybacks Yield: 4%
VALUATION:
2028 $BABA MARKET CAP =
130.45*(1.08)^5*0.16*15*(1.04)^5=
$560B
You can now choose the…
52
59
378
What is the best long term opportunity in the list?
$BABA
$PLTR
$SBUX
$AAPL
$TSLA
$META
225
28
369
COMPILATION OF ALL MY SIMPLIFIED VALUATION MODELS OF LAST DAYS + PRICE TARGET
$BABA $127 | Strong buy ✅
Potential upside: +84%
$PDD $174 | Strong buy ✅
Potential upside: +53%
$JD $37 | Buy ✅
Potential upside: +45%
$SBUX $96 | Buy ✅
Potential upside: +9%
$PYPL $92 |…
29
55
368
What is the best investment opportunity in China? 🇨🇳
$BABA Fwd PE: 8
$JD Fwd PE: 8
$PDD Fwd PE: 14
$TCEHY Fwd PE: 14
$BYDDY Fwd PE: 35
$BIDU Fwd PE: 10
161
48
344
✅ At 75$ Alibaba $BABA is below my 145$ fair value, it implies a potential upside of 93%.
I don't think my assumptions are too optimistic, look for example at PE ratio and at the share buybacks+dividend assumption.
I'll be patient here.
$PDD $JD $NIO $TCEHY $YUMC $HSI $KWEB
46
38
333
✅ At 73$ Alibaba $BABA is below my 145$ fair value assuming a 9% discount rate, the potential upside is 99%.
If consumer spending in China rebound this stock could outperform the market over the next years.
I don't think my assumptions are too optimistic, look for example at…
41
40
321
What do you think about my portfolio allocation? What would you change and why?
22% $PYPL
20% $PDD 🇨🇳
18% $BABA 🇨🇳
15% $META (Increased at $415 💪🏻)
7% $HOOD
7% $BTG
6% $BILL
3% $PLTR (new position 🔥)
2% $NIO 🇨🇳
223
18
322
🟢 MY SIMPLIFIED STARBUCKS $SBUX VALUATION MODEL IN 3 MINUTES.
ASSUMPTIONS:
2023 Revenue: $35.98B
5Y Revenue CAGR: 8%
Terminal Profit Margin: 13%
Terminal PE Ratio: 20
Buybacks+Dividend Yield: 4%
VALUATION:
2028 $SBUX MARKET CAP =
35.98*(1.08)^5*0.13*20*(1.04)^5= $167B
You can…
28
38
299
$COST Costco FCF for 2023 $6.7B
$BABA + $JD FCF of last 12 months $30B.
Market Cap of Costco $300B
Market Cap of Alibaba + JD $205B
Who is expected to grow faster in next years? Alibaba and JD.
You can't tell me that market is correctly valuing these companies.
$HSI $NIO $PDD
58
24
259
YOU CAN BUY $BABA ALIBABA AT 70$ WITH CURRENT METRICS:
LTM EBITDA growth: 83%
LTM FCF Margin: 17%
Forward PE ratio: 8
Net Cash/Mkt Cap: 33%
Company is still growing the revenue at 7-8% rate in a bad macro scenario.
Moreover profitability is increasing + International division…
56
36
260
🔵 MY SIMPLIFIED PAYPAL $PYPL VALUATION MODEL IN 3 MINUTES.
ASSUMPTIONS:
2023 Revenue: $29.77B
5Y Revenue CAGR: 8%
Profit Margin: 15%
PE Ratio: 20
Shares outstanding: -4%/year
VALUATION:
2028 $PYPL SHARE PRICE = 148$
You can now choose the discount rate that you prefer, for…
31
33
247
ALIBABA IS BACK TO $80, WE'RE ""ONLY"" DOWN 74% FROM $310 ATH IN 2020 🥹
29
13
237
✅ $BABA is reducing shares count 5.1% Y/Y and 2.6% Q/Q (in Q1).
❌ $AAPL is reducing shares 2.4% Y/Y.
During last 3 months Alibaba buybacks were bigger than Apple LTM buybacks (relative numbers as % of the company).
How is it possible?
$BABA is trading at 8 Fwd PE
$AAPL is…
28
30
233
✅ $HSI HANG SENG INDEX HAS STRONGLY BROKEN OUT THE DOWNTREND CHANNEL AND NOW IS UP 20% FROM THE MINIMUM OF 14800.
IS IT THE START OF A NEW BULL MARKET? 🐂
Let me know what you think...
$BABA $PDD $JD $BIDU $KWEB
29
27
232
🟠 ALIBABA $BABA STOCK IS REALLY UNDERVALUED FOR THE NEXT 5 REASONS:
1) Revenue is growing in the range of 6-10% with a bad Chinese macro environment (during the first months of 2024 it's improving).
2) The business is incredibly diversified as you can see below in the picture,…
14
40
231
$BABA VS $JD VS $PDD 🏟️
which is the best company to pick for the long term?
$BABA
10Y revenue growth CAGR: 7%
Long term profit margin: 17%
Terminal multiple (PE): 15
Buyback+dividend rate: 3%
2033 fair value: $344
Annual expected return: 16.8% ✅
$JD
10Y revenue growth CAGR:…
54
36
215
✅ At 75$ Alibaba $BABA is below my 145$ fair value assuming a 9% discount rate, the potential upside is 93%.
I don't think my assumptions are too optimistic, look for example at 7% revenue CAGR and at 15 PE ratio for one of the best quality company in China.
That's a long term…
17
28
205
🟠 MY SIMPLIFIED $BABA VALUATION MODEL IN 3 MINUTES
ASSUMPTIONS:
2023 Revenue: $130.45B
5Y Revenue CAGR: 8%
2028 Profit Margin: 16%
2028 PE Ratio: 15
Shares outstanding: 2.434B
Shares reduction: 4%/year
VALUATION:
2028 $BABA SHARE PRICE =
130.45 * (1.08)^5 * 0.16 * 15 / [2.434…
18
28
192
IS THE HANG SENG INDEX $HSI FINALLY BREAKING OUT OF THE 1Y DOWNTREND CHANNEL? 👀
$BABA $JD $PDD $BIDU $NIO $TCEHY $HSTECH $KWEB
19
17
180
Which is the most undervalued stock in the list?
$TSLA
$SOFI
$PYPL
$BABA
$JD
$GOOGL
126
15
174
$BABA buyback amount was huge in Q1
Alibaba's big buyback:
$BABA easily buys back more stock in Q1 than U.S. & Chinese comps did in their most recent quarters.
30
60
445
11
13
165
$BABA ALIBABA IS UP 4%
The last time it happened I was still in my mother's belly 😂
24
9
161
OKAY, THE $AAPL $110B BUYBACKS PLAN IS IMPRESSIVE BUT:
$PYPL is reducing share outstanding at 5.5% rate per year, $AAPL at 2.5-3%.
WHY?
Because of the different forward multiples.
$PYPL 13X PE
$AAPL 25X PE
VALUATION MATTERS!
20
18
160
🔵 $PYPL ANALYSIS - PART 1
1) COMPANY OVERVIEW
PayPal $PYPL is a globally recognized financial technology company that revolutionized online payments, enabling secure and convenient transactions between individuals and businesses. Serving as a digital alternative to traditional…
19
20
158
$BABA Q4 2023.
Business segments revenue growth rates:
❌ China Commerce up 1.6%
✅ International Com. up 43.8%
✅ Local Services up 13.2%
✅ Cainiao Logistics up 23.7%
❌ Cloud Group up 2.6%
✅ Digital Media up 18.3%
$PDD $JD $NIO $BIDU $TCEHY $KWEB $YUMC $HSI
13
26
152
MY 1Y PRICE TARGET FOR $BABA $JD AND $PDD 🇨🇳
$BABA
1Y TARGET: $142
POTENTIAL UPSIDE: 82%
MY RATING: Strong buy ✅
$JD
1Y TARGET: $41
POTENTIAL UPSIDE: 32%
MY RATING: Buy ✅
$PDD
1Y TARGET: $195
POTENTIAL UPSIDE: 51%
MY RATING: Strong buy ✅
Do you own one of these companies?
29
15
153
Top 5 positions in my portfolio and (total returns):
1) 19.7% $PYPL (-3%)
2) 18.1% $META (+202%)
3) 15.7% $BABA (-29%)
4) 12.3% $PDD (+179%)
5) 8.8% $JD (-29%)
Follow me:
@Elkingnatinho
22
10
144
5 good quality companies that you can buy today at a interesting price IMO:
1) $ZTS Fwd PE: 25
5Y performance: +47%
2) $SBUX Fwd PE: 20
5Y performance: +10%
3) $UNH Fwd PE: 16
5Y performance: +96%
4) $PYPL Fwd PE: 12
5Y performance: -41%
5) $BABA Fwd PE: 8
5Y performance:…
36
12
146
$BABA
That was my recap after Q4 earnings, Alibaba is still a big opportunity based on my analysis:
🟠 REVENUE:
After a flat year revenue is recovering the growth trend during 2023 despite the struggling chinese economy.
Alibaba revenue is up 7% on a trailing Y/Y basis,…
9
23
140
China shares are flying today 🇨🇳✈️
$BABA +2.3%
$JD +5.5%
$PDD +7.6%
$TCEHY +5.2%
$NIO +5.8%
16
6
139
🟢 MY SIMPLIFIED STARBUCKS $SBUX VALUATION MODEL IN 3 MINUTES.
ASSUMPTIONS:
LTM Revenue: $36.53B
5Y Revenue CAGR: 7%
2029 Profit Margin: 13%
2029 PE Ratio: 20
Shares outstanding: 1.135B
Shares reduction: 2%/year
VALUATION:
Q1 2029 $SBUX SHARE PRICE =
36.53 * (1.07)^5 * 0.13 *…
29
14
123
✅ Good trading session for China ecommerce companies today.
JUST TO REMEMBER YOU MY PRICE TARGETS:
$BABA: 145$ (99% upside)
$PDD: 210$ (75% upside)
$JD: 47$ (74% upside)
13
12
122
What is the most attractive Chinese investment opportunity?
$BABA | EV/EBITDA: 4.4
$JD | EV/EBITDA: 3.1
$PDD | EV/EBITDA: 13.5
$BIDU | EV/EBITDA: 3.2
$TCEHY | EV/EBITDA: 14.9
$BYDDY | EV/EBITDA: 9.9
39
18
119
$BABA
EV/SALES: 0.99
EV/EBITDA: 4.32
EV/FCF: 4.92
Reasonable multiple should be:
EV/SALES: 2.5
EV/EBITDA: 10
EV/FCF: 13
That's 2.5x actual multiples and fair value = 70 * 2.5 = 175$
Yes exists the China risk and in fact I didn't use high multiples...
17
18
116
🔴 $NVDA IS LOSING $200B MARKET CAP IN ONE DAY, MORE THAN THE ENTIRE MARKET CAP OF $BABA
17
9
117
$HSI HANG SENG INDEX IS UP 23% FROM THE MINIMUM OF JANUARY 🐂
STOCK PERFORMANCES OF TODAY:
$BABA +2.6%
$JD +5.0%
$TCEHY +3.7%
$BYDDY +4.7%
$NIO +21.1%
$HSI +2.4%
$HSTECH +4.4%
Are you buying?
16
8
114
$PYPL Q1 REPORT:
🟢 Revenue is up 9% Y/Y
🟢 Non GAAP EPS is up 27% Y/Y
🟡 Active accounts are down 1% Y/Y but up Q/Q
🟡 Monthly active accounts are up 2% Y/Y
🟢 Transactions per active account are up 13% Y/Y
🔴 Transaction margin is 45.0%, down from 47.1% in Q1 2023.
(Braintree…
10
20
112
MY 1Y PRICE TARGET FOR $BABA $JD AND $PDD.
$BABA ALIBABA
1Y TARGET: $142
POTENTIAL UPSIDE: 85%
MY RATING: Strong buy ✅
$JD JINGDONG
1Y TARGET: $41
POTENTIAL UPSIDE: 38%
MY RATING: Buy ✅
$PDD PDD HOLDINGS
1Y TARGET: $195
POTENTIAL UPSIDE: 51%
MY RATING: Strong buy ✅
13
20
106
$BABA is accelerating the shares repurchase program, impressive!
$BABA HKeX filing updates on Q1 2024 buyback. $4.8B buying back 65mm ADRs 2.6% of shares outstanding! From Q1 2023 to Q1 2024 the company has bought 1.057B shares/5.1% of shares outstanding.
20
49
306
2
8
95
At $140 $TSLA is becoming an opportunity based on my valuation model.
MY UPDATED RATING: Hold - - > Buy ✅
HERE YOU CAN READ MY TESLA VALUATION IN 3 MINUTES.
ASSUMPTIONS:
2023 Revenue: $96.77B
5Y Revenue CAGR: 16%
Profit Margin: 12%
PE Ratio: 35
Shares outstanding: 3.174B…
22
8
86
I bought 11 shares of $BABA and 6 shares of $PDD during today session.
🟠 $BABA is down 26% in the last year and the NTM PE is 8.6X
🔴 $PDD is up 68% in the last year and the NTM PE is only 13.5X
Have you bought any Chinese company recently?
29
1
84
$HSI HANG SENG INDEX CLOSED GREEN FOR 6 CONSECUTIVE DAYS.
Rebound or start of a new bull market for China? 🇨🇳
$BABA $JD $PDD $BIDU $KWEB
9
5
84
$PDD is now my biggest position after a 12% jump in 2 days.
Other positions: $PYPL $BABA $META $HOOD $BTG $BILL $PLTR $NIO
What do you think about my portfolio allocation?
18
5
82
We're approaching the PayPal Q1 earnings report, $PYPL is my biggest position and this is an easy valuation model:
MY SIMPLIFIED PAYPAL $PYPL VALUATION MODEL IN 3 MINUTES.
ASSUMPTIONS:
2023 Revenue: $29.77B
5Y Revenue CAGR: 8%
2028 Profit Margin: 15%
2028 PE Ratio: 20
Shares…
8
6
80
🔵 $PYPL COULD BE A 5X BAGGER IN 2030 REACHING 300$ BASED ON THE FOLLOWING ASSUMPTIONS:
- 10% Revenue CAGR reaching 58.01B in 7 years (above estimates but definitely achievable).
- 20% Profit Margin = 11.60B of Net Income in 2030 (actual margin is around 15% but it's not…
12
10
79
$PYPL 10Y DCF MODEL
FAIR VALUE: 107.92$
TODAY PRICE: 58.12$
POTENTIAL UPSIDE: 86%
IRR: 15.6%/Year
MY RATING: STRONG BUY ✅
ASSUMPTIONS:
- Free cash flows are obtained from revenue future estimates and hypothetical margins, I'll maybe share the entire table in the future.
-…
15
7
78
🔴 MY SIMPLIFIED $JD VALUATION MODEL IN 3 MINUTES.
ASSUMPTIONS:
2023 Revenue: $149.79B
5Y Revenue CAGR: 5%
Terminal Profit Margin: 3.5%
Terminal PE Ratio: 12
Buybacks+Dividend Yield: 4%
VALUATION:
2028 $JD MARKET CAP =
149.79*(1.05)^5*0.035*12*(1.04)^5= $98B
You can now choose…
19
8
76
I ADDED A NEW SMALL POSITION TO MY PORTFOLIO, WHO CAN GUESS?
Option 1: Tesla $TSLA
Option 2: Palantir $PLTR
Option 3: Enphase $ENPH
Option 4: Starbucks $SBUX
46
7
76
🟠 Alibaba $BABA is up 4% during this trading week.
✅ Company is trading below my 145$ fair value, that implies a potential upside of 91%.
Calculation: (145-76)/76
Follow me:
@Elkingnatinho
$PDD $JD $NIO $TCEHY $YUMC $HSI $KWEB
9
9
71
🔵 MY SIMPLIFIED $ASML VALUATION MODEL IN 3 MINUTES.
ASSUMPTIONS:
2023 Revenue: 27.56B€
5Y Revenue CAGR: 12%
Profit Margin: 32%
PE Ratio: 30
Shares outstanding: 0.394B
Shares reduction: -1%/year
VALUATION:
2028 $ASML SHARE PRICE =
27.56 * (1.12)^5 * 0.32 * 30 * (1.01)^5 /…
5
5
73
What is the best investment opportunity in this list?
$SOFI
$HOOD
$PYPL
$TSLA
$GOOGL
$BABA
44
6
70
I bought $BABA and $PDD when they crashed respectively 15% and 30% on October 24th of 2022.
I perfectly understand that investing in China is risky but if I accepted the risk of buying in that scary moment why should I sell my China stock positions now?
$JD $KWEB $NIO $HSI
14
4
69
🔵 MY SIMPLIFIED $META VALUATION MODEL IN 3 MINUTES.
FAIR VALUE: $491
MY RATING: Buy ✅
ASSUMPTIONS:
2023 Revenue: $134.90B
5Y Revenue CAGR: 11%
2028 Profit Margin: 35%
2028 PE Ratio: 24
Shares outstanding: 2.625B
Shares reduction: 2.5%/year
VALUATION:
2028 $META SHARE PRICE…
9
9
68
My actual performance on China companies investments:
- $BABA -28% (own 100%)
- $JD -31% (own 100%)
- $NIO -22% (own 100% - it's just a small bet)
- $PDD +185% (still own 78%)
Overall: +0.2% or - 27% no considering pinduoduo position.
I'm positive for the future ✅
16
4
64
🔵 MY UPDATED PAYPAL $PYPL VALUATION MODEL IN 3 MINUTES.
FAIR VALUE: $92 - - > $95 ✅
ASSUMPTIONS:
LTM Revenue: $30.43B
5Y Revenue CAGR: 8%
2029 Profit Margin: 15%
2029 PE Ratio: 20
Shares outstanding: 1.072B
Shares reduction: 4%/year
VALUATION:
Q1 2029 $PYPL SHARE PRICE =…
11
9
66
Lot of hedge funds and big investors increased their position in $BABA during Q4.
Is the trend inversion coming? 👀
EXCLUSIVE: KEN GRIFFIN'S HEDGE FUND CITADEL ADVISORS HAVE INCREASED THEIR $BABA POSITION 835%
THEY NOW OWN MORE THAN $230M IN THE STOCK
FOLLOW
@DAILYCOMPOUNDNG
FOR MORE EXCLUSIVE NEWS TO DROP TODAY
31
105
579
8
9
61
MYSTERIOUS CORRELATION WITH $PYPL and $BABA.
PayPal has been insanely more correlated to Alibaba stock than to S&P 500 during the last 3 months.
I noticed that because I hold both the stocks and 90% of the days the two companies were trading in the same direction.
Any idea to…
16
6
61
@DividendTalks
After the drop $META is at 21X considering a 20.4 estimated EPS.
So it's the cheapest in the big 7 basket
5
0
55
Yesterday I asked you which stock between $TSLA $PLTR $ENPH $SBUX you think I added to my portfolio and the correct answer is...
✅ $PLTR Palantir: I decided to start this position not because it's a value play but because I think it's probably the best positioned stock in the…
17
2
54
🔴 MY SIMPLIFIED TESLA $TSLA VALUATION MODEL IN 3 MINUTES.
ASSUMPTIONS:
2023 Revenue: $96.77B
5Y Revenue CAGR: 16%
Profit Margin: 12%
PE Ratio: 35
Shares outstanding: 3.174B
Shares dilution: 1%/year
VALUATION:
2028 $TSLA SHARE PRICE =
96.77 * (1.16)^5 * 0.12 * 35 / [(1.01)^5 *…
17
3
54
At the current multiples $PYPL can buyback 5% of the company per year (net of SBC):
5B buybacks - 1.6B SBC = 3.6B
3.6B / 65B = 5.5%
$AAPL mathematically can't do it because of the high multiples.
90B buybacks - 10B SBC = 80B
80B / 3T = 2.7%
✅ PayPal is expected to grow faster
11
5
53
CHINESE COMPANIES ARE EXTENDING GAINS AFTER A STRONG HONG KONG SESSION
$BABA $PDD $JD $HSI
7
5
51
Can Starbucks $SBUX rebound on this support?
Forward PE ratio is at 20x not bad for a solid growth business like Starbucks.
Dividend Yield at 2.65% has reached an ATH.
Do you own $SBUX or are you planning to start a position? ☕
13
6
49
Will Hang Seng Index $HSI breakout this channel during next trading sessions? Has we finally reached a bottom or the worst hasn't passed yet?
$BABA $PDD $JD $BIDU $TCEHY $NIO $LI $BYDDY $KWEB
7
4
49
I think that $PYPL deserves at least a 20x PE multiple, change my mind.
10
3
48
🟠 ALIBABA HAS 60% PROBABILITY OF GOING TO 0!
HERE'S WHAT MARKET EXPECTS:
$BABA forward PE valuation is 8 but a company with 900B active users, in the ecommerce/tech sector, should trade around 20X multiple in my opinion.
Actually, market is assigning to $BABA only 40% (8/20)…
10
5
48
3 GIFTS IN ACTUAL MARKET FOR THE LONG TERM 🎁
$PYPL Fwd PE 12
3Y expected revenue CAGR: 8%
$BABA Fwd PE 8
3Y expected revenue CAGR: 8.5%
$PDD Fwd PE 13
3Y expected revenue CAGR: 34%
Do you own these companies in your portfolio?
13
7
47
CHINA YES 🟢 OR CHINA NO 🔴
I'm bullish for the long term and today could be a good day for starting/increasing positions in the China stocks $BABA $PDD $JD
Personally I have around 35% allocation in the China ecommerce sector because I consider it as a big opportunity, in…
27
2
47
🔵 PAYPAL $PYPL STOCK IS UNDERVALUED FOR THE NEXT 5 REASONS IMO:
1) Paypal has a long track record of growth and revenue is still increasing at 8% rate in the last quarters, numbers are not reflecting the narrative of "DEAD COMPANY WITH NO MOAT".
$PYPL is focusing on the active…
5
6
48
Q4 $JD SUMMARY AND VALUATION
✅ They announced a Dividend of 0.76$ per ADS (DY = 3.2%).
✅ They approved a $3B shares repurchase program over the next 3 years (2.7%/year) but they'll spend around 2B in SBC so the total value returned to shareholders will be around 1%/year.…
4
8
44
What is the best long term opportunity in this list? Are you buying the dip of this week?
$NVDA +54% YTD
$META +36% YTD
$PLTR +19% YTD
$NFLX +14% YTD
$BABA -11% YTD
$AAPL -14% YTD
$TSLA -41% YTD
10
3
46
What is the best big tech to buy today?
$MSFT Fwd PE 33
$AAPL Fwd PE 25
$NVDA Fwd PE 38
$GOOGL Fwd PE 24
$AMZN Fwd PE 43
$META Fwd PE 21
25
2
46
$BABA
Based on my model, if you buy Alibaba stock at 75$ in next 10Y you'll get:
🔴 6.9%/year (worst s.)
🟡 16.4%/year (average scenario)
🟢 25.1%/year (best s.)
My rating: STRONG BUY ✅
Price target 1Y: 155$
$JD $PDD $NIO $KWEB $HSI $ENPH $PYPL
Follow me:
@Elkingnatinho
4
6
44
Tomorrow's I'll post my valuation models of $TSLA, $VISA and $ENPH.
5
0
44
I'll post my $META valuation tomorrow but I can anticipate you that for me is a BUY ✅
3
3
44
WEEK 17 PORTFOLIO RECAP
My portfolio: 6.02% ☑️
*Benchmark: 6.06% ✅
S&P 500: 2.67% ❌
TOP 5 POSITIONS (total performance)
1) 21.8% $PYPL (+10%)
2) 20.0% $PDD (+57%)
3) 17.7% $BABA (-25%)
4) 15.3% $META (+131%)
5) 6.8% $BTG (-3%)
BEST PERFORMER OF THE WEEK:
$NIO (+18%)…
12
2
44
$PYPL
Based on my model, if you buy PayPal stock at 65$ in next 10Y you'll get:
🔴 5.8%/year (worst s.)
🟡 13.8%/year (average scenario)
🟢 21.1%/year (best s.)
My rating: STRONG BUY ✅
Price target 1Y: 107$
$SQ $SOFI $COIN $UPST $GOOG $DIS $BABA
Follow me:
@Elkingnatinho
6
7
41
🔴 MY PINDUODUO $PDD VALUATION MODEL IN 3 MINUTES.
ASSUMPTIONS:
2023 Revenue: $34.27B
5Y Revenue CAGR: 20%
Terminal Profit Margin: 25%
Terminal PE Ratio: 20
Buybacks Yield: 0%
VALUATION:
2028 $PDD MARKET CAP =
34.27*(1.20)^5*0.25*20 = $426B
You can now choose the discount rate…
10
6
42
I should have bought more $META back at the end of 2022.
If I consider only the last purchase (picture) it's my first 5X 🥹
12
3
41
🔵 MY SIMPLIFIED UNITEDHEALTH $UNH VALUATION MODEL IN 3 MINUTES.
ASSUMPTIONS:
2023 Revenue: $371.62B
5Y Revenue CAGR: 9%
Profit Margin: 6%
PE Ratio: 20
Shares outstanding: 0.922B
Shares reduction: -1.5%/year
VALUATION:
2028 $UNH SHARE PRICE =
371.62 * (1.09)^5 * 0.06 * 20 *…
10
8
41
2027 FORWARD PE OF MAGNIFICENT 7:
$MSFT 23
$AAPL 20
$NVDA 20
$AMZN 22
$GOOGL 13
$META 17
$TSLA 32
- Google is very cheap compared to others.
- Meta presented incredible results and is still a good pick after a 5X in 16 months, insane!
- Nvidia is not a bubble based on future…
7
7
40
Paypal $PYPL is reducing shares outstanding at 5.5% rate Y/Y and, at current prices, they can continue like this because of the strong FCF generation (At least 5B per year considering 1.5B in SBC).
4
3
39
✅ $PYPL IS UP 9% DURING THE LAST TRADING WEEK
What is your fair value for the company? Please write it in the comments
I'll start: 98$ 🎯
10
3
39
As a $PYPL shareholder I did my part for today purchasing my italian train pass with PayPal BNPL.
+1 MONTHLY ACTIVE USER FOR THE NEXT 3 MONTHS 😂🚀
8
0
39
$BABA
3 important considerations on Alibaba company, in particular on revenue, P/FCF ratio and shares outstanding.
⬇️⬇️⬇️
🟠 REVENUE:
After a flat year revenue is recovering the growth trend during 2023 despite the struggling chinese economy.
Alibaba revenue is up 7% on a…
3
6
38
👀 HANG SENG INDEX $HSI is trading at the top of the 1Y downtrend channel, is finally the time for a strong breakout?
$BABA $PDD $JD $BYDDY $TCEHY $BIDU $XPEV $NIO $LI
6
6
39
$BABA
✅ Alibaba is up 2.5% in the Asian session.
👀 Are we potentially ready for a strong pattern reverse?
🟠 Based on fundamentals my fair value is around 150$ so it's possible, I have already discussed on my profile why the price is actually depressed and the numerous risks…
4
5
37