Growth of private consumption expenditure is an important metric: it directly reflects the spending by households. It is also an indicator of consumer confidence. The analysis below shows how annualized real growth of monthly per capita consumption expenditure has improved in the

This year’s Economics Nobel Prize- one half goes to Joel Mokyr and the other half jointly to Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt. Great choice! They show how new technology can drive sustained growth. Sharing my article from 2018 which draws on the fascinating work of Joel Mokyr.

‘Law and Manners’ - by Lord Moulton, first published in 1924. A recommended reading for everyone who believes that he/she has the divine and absolute right to free speech. https://t.co/26iUk5QCPv

“The power to hurt is bargaining power. To exploit it is diplomacy- vicious diplomacy, but diplomacy.” Thomas Schelling

The Ukraine war has catalysed exceptional growth in the US defense industry - with record exports, orders, valuations & profits, and an unprecedented expansion of the ecosystem. Excellent essay by ⁦@jaibal⁩

'How economic planning stifled India’s growth and talent' Shamika Ravi @ShamikaRavi, member, Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister, writes #ThePrintOpinion https://t.co/wTiFsbfkeO

The real challenge of Indian enterprises is large presence of micro firms & few very large firms. There is a “missing middle”. This is primarily due to protection of the smallest and the largest. Real reforms needed to make the economy competitive & let the mid size firms emerge.

We shd discuss tariff & trade vis a vis massive current account surpluses of some countries. These countries are forcing the common citizens to save, while the Govts use these savings to buy massive US debt. In return cheap access to credit is forcing US citizens to consume more.

At some point in time, the real burden of US imposed tariffs will be on low income US households. They will no longer have access to cheap global goods, made available by cheap credit which the surplus countries are willing to provide. Economic forces move in mysterious ways.

Sometimes indifference to rants & petulant remarks, hurt more than a hateful response. Becoz a response no matter how hateful is still an acknowledgment but being indifferent implies a total lack of recognition. Thus, indifference might be more hurtful than a hateful response.

India’s export of Goods to the US is ~1.95% of the GDP( for Vietnam its 30%). The impact of tariffs on growth might not be as important. However, the self imposed uncertainty by over thinking, over discussing, and over analysing it might be more problematic, so time to move on.

Double Counting of Investment - by Robert Barro. Very useful article. Clearly shows that countries with artificially high levels of investment might be exaggerating their GDP numbers. #RecommendedReading

There r arguably 2 approaches to academic inquiry: “either you are a seeker of truth or pretend to be a possessor of truth.” Most activist academics r the latter. Before v claim to be speaking truth to power, we should 1st ask with humility whether we know the truth in 1st place.

An excellent column from @amitabhk87 - on how India can fulfill the long held promise of the apparel sector. We must start with zero-duty imports of raw material for manmade textiles… let’s get our own house in order. https://t.co/CBkGSBk3xY

There is a major resurgence of female LFPR across India, specially in rural areas, since 2017-18. This is a significant developmental phenomenon which needs thorough measurement & documentation. We provide highly disaggregated LFPR trends for all states of India: across urban &

Unfortunately the estimates in this paper are not very reliable as they depend on sampling weights which grossly underestimates the current population by >15%.

My heart aches as I share the news of Bibek Debroy’s passing. Besides being a scholarly giant, he was an incredible storyteller. He was my most trusted source for institutional memory & administrative history. The stories have paused… but he has left behind a treasure trove of

The things you discover in Diwali Mela! IFFCO Kisan Drones - super impressive that farmers have been renting drones for precision spraying of fertilizers and insecticides over their crops…. & many of the trained operators are women. Well done @IFFCO_PR !

“This may be the greatest farce in modern medicine.” The study showing that HRT causes breast cancer does not show that HRT causes breast cancer! It is the most expensive clinical study in history- known as the Women’s Health Initiative. The NIH had spent approx $1B in taxpayer

Recent HCES data from 2022-23 challenges the narrative of rising inequality. The Gini coefficient indicates a decrease, with a significant drop in the percentage of the population below the poverty line. Dr @bibekdebroy writes.