"Outliers are those who have been given opportunities and who have had the strength and presence of mind to seize them". Outliers.

-vs exports (can only push it that far, depreciate rmb; global policy reactions to export dominance-> trade fictions).

Balance sheet recession.-China's Japanification (~30yrs ago): individuals and corporates paying down debts ~building back up savings (US fiscal stimulus vs China during covid).-tax cut (no use) vs fiscal stimulus (govt help finish RE construction projects that have started).

Oh be a fine guy/girl kiss me.

commodity exporters.- moving up the value chain or stuck?.- look at complexification of economy, investment in social development, domestic equality, global integration.- domestic political and international geopolitical issue vs IMF, World Bank only.

Dutch East India Company/spice trade/Africa/"created" dual economy/Apartheid state vs Homeland/cheap labors/1976 Soweto uprising. English East India Company/textile trade monopoly/India/looting/growing opium to sell in China. underdevelopment in Africa/India=>European development.

both state centralisation (fear of creative destruction and toppling of political status quo) and the lack of it could suppress inclusive political and economic institutions and hence prosperity.

american cre market stress.- maturity wall.- private credit funds vs regional banks.- different factors at play vs 2008 gfc (distressed asset buyer rode the recovery vs local developer owner operator types, question: are they still healthy cash flow/income generating assets?).