Michael Kahn, CMT
@mnkahn
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Senior Market Analyst, @LowryResearch / @CFRAResearch . Barron's alum. Jargon buster.
New York
Joined November 2008
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Here come the comparisons. The last two times we saw 6% gains in the Nasdaq were the ends of the 2020 and 2018 bear markets. However, it happened twice in October 2008 and that was not the bottom. Ditto May 2002, Apr 2001, Dec 2000....you get the point.
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For all you bull market fans - the QQQ without technology ETF.
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The most bullish thing a market can do is get overbought and stay that way - Alan Shaw, CMT (Smith Barney, ret.)
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Big buying into the close. Just for kicks, the market bottomed the Friday before the election in 2016.
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Not forecasting but the last time the S&P 500 retraced more than 50% of its then-bear market, it was supposed to be a 100% chance the bull was back.
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@WalterDeemer
Just a warning to the minions that a 90% downside day (with points) is not a guarantee of capitulation.
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"The most bullish thing a market can do is get overbought and stay that way." - Alan Shaw CMT
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@AntithetosCptl
@WalterDeemer
We have no studies showing that back-to-back 80% upside days mean anything more than a temporary surge in buying. As you point out, a major selling day (90% downside) just before these upside days is a different story as it shows the exhaustion of Supply and return of Demand.
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If this is not the best reason to use technical analysis, I don't know what is. No data revisions, no data guesses.
@CMTAssociation
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@WalterDeemer
Obviously, I cannot give away the store but this is the first 90% Downside Day since November. An isolated 90% Down doesn't tell us much more than volatility in a downtrend at this point.
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Something we find troubling. $DIA on top, NYSE Adv-Dec on bottom.
@LowryResearch
@cfraresearch
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If this is supposed to be a surge of buying, then why is volume not only mediocre, but potentially the lowest of the week, so far?
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For those interested, the July 7 80% Upside Day had very low total volume. Investors put a toe in the water but there was no money behind it. That speaks to sentiment that is not washed out, despite the surveys.
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Everyone is looking at the 10-year. Here is the 30-year with a breakout. $TNX $TYX
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Insert your own caption. Oil stocks on top, solar ETF on bottom. $XOI $TAN
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R2K ticked 2K. More importantly, that is the top of a year and a half range.
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@WalterDeemer
Or as Paul Desmond wrote, multiple 90% down days spark additional 90% down days.
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A breakdown here probably would be bad for more than just this transport ETF $IYT
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@WalterDeemer
Officially an 80% Upside Day. We got the 90+% points but our official volume was 89.84%. The end of day WSJ data did beat 90% at the close but they keep updating for hours. The closing diaries page today also shows sub-90%.
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Do you remember what you learned in technical analysis school? Support becomes resistance. $RUT
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@WalterDeemer
We show that this was the first back-to-back 80% Up in 2023. The last 90% Down was March 9. Keep in mind that an 80-80 Up is not meaningful unless following a 90% Down and in a downtrend.
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Dow $DJI and NYSE Composite $NYA now below their Feb. 2020 pre-pandemic highs.
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Before you all disappear for the long weekend of drink and debauchery, I would like to say thank you for reading my charts and various other brain dumps.
#GoodHealth
and
#HappyNewYear
#dontdrinkanddrive
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They call this the offense/defense index. (tech and discretionary over health and staples)
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Just another example - surprises happen in the direction of the trend. $PYPL earnings miss. Now, whether will this be climactic is to be determined.
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Nothing like an all-time high in big caps when the small caps were down over 1%. Breadth sucked.
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Time to fill up the Strategic Natural Gas Reserve, if only one existed. Or does it? $NG
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Today's worst chart. Financials were a top sector, too. $KBE
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Pattern breakout failure often leads to test of the opposite border. $RUT
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"Investors added the most money on record to equity funds last week " - BAML Sure, 9 years into the bull market, what could go wrong?
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Get those insane bids ready. $AMZN 1750, $TSLA 500 $GOOG 1775 $NVDA 115
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@WalterDeemer
Friday's official Lowry numbers - 92.00% Volume 96.50% Points. (Sorry, but implications must be reserved for clients.)
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Not a forecast! But what if the perfect storm of competition, supply chain, and management distraction happens? $TSLA
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Traders looking at oversold levels "I dare you to cross this line (Sam crosses).......OK, I dare you to cross THIS line..."
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Considering how much we depend on nat gas for power, this is notable. $UNG
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Seems to me that an upside breakaway gap should be followed by further price gains. The longer $NVDA sits there, the more it looks like an exhaustion gap.
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When someone asks what a downside breakaway gap looks like. $ADBE
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Just a little proud papa news. My son in the end credits of the new Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles movie.
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Today's jobs number prove that economists are non-essential.
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Media, please stop! "Dow and S&P 500 are on the brink of exiting correction territory" How about saying they gained back half of their losses?
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@billmonness
@WalterDeemer
1- very early into a decline, like near the highs, it says to watch out.
2 - after the decline, a 90% Up (plus a few other Lowry things) says Supply is exhausted and Demand is roaring back.
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If only they understood what there were writing about.
Headline - Boeing, Nike and 3M pacing Dow gain. The top gainers on the Dow by points, not percentages, are UNH, BA and HD. The Dow is price weighted, not equal weighted (or cap weighted).
#stupidmedia
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Nat Gas loves its island gap reversals $UNG. This one, however, began at firmly overbought levels.
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Perspective. The NYSE Composite is just four trading days since its all-time high. $NYA
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$SPX Golden Cross the day of the high (to date). Often these crosses (Golden and Black) are good short-term fades.
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@WalterDeemer
Heavy selling begets heavy selling. I would be surprised to see an upside day anytime soon. Of course, 2020 did not follow that rule.
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We lost the walking encyclopedia of technical analysis yesterday. My colleague, and new mentor 30 years into this business, Dick Dickson, has passed. We here at Lowry are devastated.
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Just a reminder of what cable looked like before the recent nonsense. $FXB (yes, I know this the ETF)
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