My reflections on the administration's claims of "foreign invasion!", and how these are poised to continue as a typical authoritarian means of curtailing civil liberties and expanding executive power.

Hoy #15May nos vemos obligados a pausar nuestras operaciones. Esta difícil decisión afecta a más de 12.000 niños que se benefician con nuestros comedores. Pero nuestro compromiso con los venezolanos más vulnerables no se acaba: se transforma, se adapta y seguirá abriendo caminos

Insights on what happened in Miami Dade? Democrats lost 150,000+ votes compared to 2020. Trump gained 50,000.

Quienes pensábamos que un fraude de totalización de este tamaño no era posible, temíamos mucho amedrentamiento y violencia durante la votación del 28 de julio (6am-6pm). Eso no pasó. El conteo y la totalización de los votos también empezó con normalidad... hasta las 7:30pm.🧵

An update on the fraudulent Venezuelan election: https://t.co/hj8PoPFxzB

This @CaracasChron clip is about the true scale of the opposition win in Venezuela. The win is bigger than the landslide reflected in Edmundo’s 67%. Share with your friends abroad.

Maduro is blocking X/Twitter in Venezuela for ten days. He claims Elon Musk and X are “promoting fascism”. Venezuelans have been using Twitter for information and organizing for years –as censorship and surveillance have grown– and where people have shared the current repression.

🧵Aplicando conocimiento académico #EleccionesVenezuela2024 Sabemos cómo funcionan mecánicas / procesos fraude electoral @BMagaloni F Lehouq @AndreasSchedler @AlbertoSimpser T Eisenstadt G Helmke D Kronick @a_rozenas y sobre todo Francisco Cantu Se ha estudiado científicamente

Con razón el desespero de Lacava. Carabobo es el estado donde el chavismo perdió mas votos.

Data published by @MariaCorinaYA and prepared by @rusosnith: The frequency of last digits in votes for Gonzalez and Maduro are uniformly distributed, which is expected if numbers are not invented "by hand". Let's see what pops up with official data... if they publish it.

Al comparar los resultados de las elecciones del 28J según actas publicadas por @ConVzlaComando con las elecciones regionales de 2021 nos encontramos con que el voto de la MUD y aliados se más que se cuadruplica mientras el chavismo se estanca en cerca de 4 millones de votos.

This still feels different. Gonzalez and Machado called for supporters to engage in peaceful civic participation tomorrow and the government called for counter-protests. Hoping, praying, for the best. (5/5)

There need to be good, credible, off-ramps but I think achieving this requires collaboration between historical Chavista allies and the US (unlikely but not impossible?). (4/5)

Second, what is the ideal response from the intl community? Cutting off diplomatic ties hurts Vzln immigrants leaving them without consular services and limiting channels of communication w/ potential defectors. They have symbolic value which isn't trivial but at what cost. (3/5)

Did the inefficiencies from corruption catch up to them? Did civilians adapt and learn to effectively falsify their preferences? Were their internal actors that prevented the communication of accurate information from the bottom up? (2/5)

Going to bed ruminating on 2 things. First, how on Earth did the regime miscalculate this? They have an incredibly sophisticated and experienced surveillance apparatus, as @NSC shows. And a very localized/organized party infrastructure that has delivered for decades. (1/5)

Also seen at least 5 videos of self-proclaimed malandros touting guns and threatening colectivos (non-state armed militants). They're a tiny minority but it's surprising to hear pro-democracy rhetoric from criminal groups. Not something to celebrate but something to watch. (3/3)

Reports of at least 4 killed dozens injured. Also a handful of instances of military/police refusing to repress. The hope is mass defection from at least some factions but the collective action problem is brutal. Today’s defectors will likely suffer grave consequences. (2/3)

Here we go

Also: Gone are the days of antagonizing Chavistas. Gonzalez & Machado - who was staunchly anti-compromise for a long - have had a consistent message of reconciliation & compromise. A public effort to mitigate the commitment problem. Seems obvious, but this took decades.