
Matthew Howells-Barby Ξ mhb.eth
@matthewbarby
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VP Growth @krakenfx. Investing/advising in crypto. 🎙 Host: @decryptopodcast. Prev: @DecentralGames / @HubSpot / cofounder @tttseocommunity (acq by @semrush)
London
Joined December 2010
Mark your calendars each week - we'll continue to stream every Thursday right here. @ustinKnight and I have run the podcast since 2017 and had some incredible guests on over the years. Each week, we'll discuss the markets, new projects, and the latest crypto news.
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This is pretty wild. ETH validator queue exit queue has a wait time right now of >46 days. (as a result of Kiln exiting all of their validators due to an API exploit)
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What do we think happens next week when/if the Fed cuts by 25bps?
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🔔 LIVE NOW: Eyes on the Rate Cut, Hyperliquid's Stablecoin, & Crypto IPO Szn
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🔔 LIVE NOW: Eyes on the Rate Cut, Hyperliquid's Stablecoin, & Crypto IPO Szn
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Be live in just over 10 mins 🔔
Join me and @ustinKnight in a few hours where we’ll discuss what’s next after today’s CPI read, Hyperliquid’s new stablecoin + more. Live here on X.
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What do we think happens next week when/if the Fed cuts by 25bps?
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Core CPI hits expectations @ 0.3% MoM. Jobless claims coming in with the highest rise in four years, too. Bond yields responding but seems like equities/crypto are relatively flat (need to see how today ends). This likely means a 25bps cut. Calls for 50bps will be a little
INTEL: 🇺🇸 United States CPI (MoM) (Aug) $USD Actual: 0.4% 🟢 Expected: 0.3% Previous: 0.2% 🇺🇸 United States CPI (YoY) (Aug) $USD Actual: 2.9% Expected: 2.9% Previous: 2.7% 🇺🇸 United States Initial Jobless Claims $USD Actual: 263K 🟢 Expected: 235K Previous: 236K
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Join me and @ustinKnight in a few hours where we’ll discuss what’s next after today’s CPI read, Hyperliquid’s new stablecoin + more. Live here on X.
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Here’s how JPMorgan’s trading desk have modelled out different scenarios for tomorrow’s Core CPI print. Based on the history of PPI<>CPI this year, going long now feels like an interesting risk/reward play (NFA). Every time we’ve had a downside surprise in PPI, Core CPI has too
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Fed Funds futures now showing a 10% chance of a 50bps cut 👀
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Foundation models are stuck in the past, but they intentionally produce natural-sounding and varied responses. These can lead to hallucinations. We explore the limitations of foundation models and how RAG can address these so chat, search, and agentic workflows can all benefit.
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⚠️ Downside surprise of 0.2% on PPI. Send it! 🚀 🚀 🟢
Big day today. PPI data released in 45 mins. PPI is kinda like the middle child of inflation data, but it's taking the spotlight this month due to coming out (unusually) before CPI. Every month this year (except August), Core CPI and PPI have matched on whether there's an
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Big day today. PPI data released in 45 mins. PPI is kinda like the middle child of inflation data, but it's taking the spotlight this month due to coming out (unusually) before CPI. Every month this year (except August), Core CPI and PPI have matched on whether there's an
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Something else to pay close attention to is the credit spreads across both high-yield OAS and high-yield lower quality bonds. This tracks the difference in yield between the risk free rate (tbills of the same duration) and corporate bonds. When we see the credit spreads
We’re in an awkward spot from a macro perspective. Going into last week, a downside surprise on the payrolls number sounded bullish (due to rate cut lock-in). The scale of the downside and the revision to June data has now created real questions about the strength of the US
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We’re in an awkward spot from a macro perspective. Going into last week, a downside surprise on the payrolls number sounded bullish (due to rate cut lock-in). The scale of the downside and the revision to June data has now created real questions about the strength of the US
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Wow. 22k NF Payrolls (vs 74k est). Nothing stops the rate cut now.
ADP employment data came way below the estimate (54k vs 73k est). Jobless Claims also dropped today and came above est. Would be surprised if we don’t see these too employment exact same tomorrow with NF Payrolls. Tomorrow could end up being a very green day for risk.
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We are LIVE! Join me, @Dentoshi and @Tradermayne now while we discuss where the markets are and where they’re going 🚀 https://t.co/NXGwbrEyZU
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