Marshall Gramm
@marshallgramm
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Here are the Del Mar last cycle odds movements and pct of total handle for Thursday.
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So far so good at Del Mar. Last cycle odds changed of the winners of the first five races. Last column is the percent of overall win handle bet in the last cycle. It averaged 15% over the first two weeks.
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In the last book there were zero races written for the Wilson chute. In the new book there are 30. 😩.
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Nanci Griffith dropped from 18/1 to 6/1 late. Just $10k was bet on her before the final flash, then $25k more poured in—36% of the last $69k in the win pool. She jumped from 4.4% to 11.4% in win and 4.7% to 11.6% in exacta. Not just a win plunge.
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Late odds changes for all races at the current Del Mar meet: 15% of win pool was bet in the final cycle, down slightly from 16.1% last year. 40 winners had odds drop late; 30 saw odds drift. Last column shows % of final cycle bets on the winner.
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RT @theTDN: "Retail players are losing the money that CAW is winning, which in the long run is unsustainable.". How does NYRA's Tote operat….
thoroughbreddailynews.com
Last month, Rhodes College economics professors Marshall Gramm and Nick McKinney published in these pages a study showing the estimated impacts at Aqueduct over the past four winters from CAW players...
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Diving into the tote data that my colleague Nick McKinney and I have collected since 2019. Put words around the table I posted a few weeks ago. Thanks to the TDN for publishing it. Hopefully more to come.
With worsening CAW encroachment within these betting pools has come growing attrition from racing's average punters, turned away from the sport by the competitive imbalance. Gramm-McKinney Study Shows Late CAW Activity in NY Pools is Growing.
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Imputed Belmont odds from the two day double. $351k bet.
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Last-cycle bet share proxies CAW activity. NYRA data shows CAW participation/growth, as CAWs aren’t allowed in Win, Late P5, or P6 pools. The early vs. late P5 gap is the clearest signal. Below is avg last-cycle share by pool at the Aqu winter meet, sorted by change from ’22–’25.
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Implied edge from the difference between the Preakness win and imputed double odds. Journalism paid $2 per dollar wagered and had an estimated 46.07% win probability from the doubles so his expected return per dollar was -7.8c. Sandman reduced takeout by 4.6% (5.3% in the Derby).
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RT @PatCummingsNTA: Here's four parts on the Preakness exacta pools. Read the 4 images below. Pari-mutuel betting can be great, but real….
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Imputed Preakness win odds from the Black Eyed Susan-Preakness double. $1.044mm in the pool. The actual win odds will be flatter. The $15 will pay to Journalism equates to just over evens given the $7 payout on Margie’s Intention.
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My 82yo dad is still hard at work. Here he is on the Remnant podcast with Jonah Goldberg discussing his new book.
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RT @PatCummingsNTA: Breakage to the penny is coming to New York effective 9/1/25! Expect an extra ~$10 million/yr back in hands of players.….
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Implied edge from the difference between the win and imputed double odds. Sovereignty paid $8.98 per dollar wagered and had an estimated 13.4% win probability from the doubles so his expected return per dollar was 20c. Sandman reduced takeout by 5.3%.
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The Good Cheer -Journalism double is paying a pretty awful $14.86 for $2. The win parlay will pay better if Journalism is greater than 2.1 to 1.
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Imputed Derby win odds from the Oaks/Derby double. $3.3m bet.
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RT @CarsoniSoK: The Sport of Kings Pod is up! @derby1592 and I are joined by Marshall Gramm @marshallgramm to handicap the Late Pick 5 at O….
sport-of-kings-podcast.simplecast.com
A discussion of the most interesting races every Saturday between Scott Carson, Chris Larmey, and special guests.
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