📢Announcing *new* monthly series of quits and layoffs reported by households! We see a notable sign of labor market softening: layoffs have risen steadily and significantly since January 2024. Do I have your attention #JOLTS and #jobsday fans? #econtwitter 🧵1/n

Next month marks one year of QL and we will take a deep dive into our thoughts on the current moment. Watch Kathrin present the research forming the foundation for our views in the NBER CRIW livestream on July 14: /end.

I have been saying for years: the hot labor market brought in many who otherwise wouldn't have worked. Watch what they do as the market cools. Looks like they're exiting to non-participation: not counted as unemployed & leave more room for others to find jobs as hiring slows. 3/4.

Our main quit and layoff series show unquestionable steady cooling. Yet unemployment has been fairly flat, consumer spending is fine, what's up? I think it is because the economy has been coming from a position of historic strength. 2/4.

Thoughts to add to @KathrinPhD #QLmonthly update. 1) Epop is particularly useful for gauging the market's trajectory. 2) The current situation isn't "good" or "bad", just different because the economy and labor market were so unusual after the pandemic. 1/4

#QLmonthly has been noting increased labor force exits after layoff. Check out the exit blip in today's #jobsday release. Don't want to make much of a single month but it backs up the waning attachment we have been seeing in QL and helps account for the flat u-rate reading.

Rest of data here FAQ including why we prefer the prime age series and how we think this complements JOLTS coming soon. @KathrinPhD and I are busy giving talks on what we think the data mean. Can't wait to see why other researchers use these data for! 2/2.

#QLmonthly now with April data and on FRED! 🎉Pleasure to work w/ the team @stlouisfed to ease access to these data. Check out share of workers leaving the labor force after a layoff climbing ever higher. Worry or return to trend? 1/2

RT @tradewartracker: this is good @MinneapolisFed

FYI we've switched the .github repository in which we store our data. Check the google site for the change. ‼️Teaser: we will be up on every economist's favorite data site very soon‼️.

Hot off the #QLmonthly presses: the odds a laid off worker exits the labor force altogether is reaching an all time high! Could unemployment rates be artificially low? Check out @KathrinPhD thread and our monthly briefing. (1/2)

📣#econtwitter Each fall, Mpls Fed hosts scholars within 8 years of their PhD for an Early Career Workshop focused on papers **in development** This year's deadline is April 11. Retweet & help us find the best new 💡 from PhD's 2017-2024!

Lots of skepticism of the Michigan Survey out there from the econ nerds. I'll add the chart below, comparing to CPS quits that @KathrinPhD and I construct. Thanks to my (fantastic) RA @SaraCanilang for showing this to me yesterday.

tldr: Quits weaker in level & momentum than other indicators. In forecasting, quits add most info about urate in medium run (+2 quarters). Still, we think current unusual pessimism in quits could reflect increased uncertainty about the future rather than material risks. 7/7.

2) Quits normally strongly co-move with job finding expectations but have diverged over the last year, falling much more than job finding expectations have fallen. 6/n

In the monthly brief ( we compare our series to FRBNY's Survey of Consumer expectations. Charts of note: 1) Layoff expectations lead layoffs and are actually falling at the moment. 5/n

Not much month over month movement in job finding rates for the prime age which are at a fairly neutral level. 4/n

Here's the puzzling one. Usually quits and layoffs move in opposite directions. Lately, quits have been declining steadily while layoffs have been fairly flat. (read on for more analysis on this) 3/n

Layoffs to non-employment still moving a bit opposite of movements from employment to unemployment (EU) as a greater share of prime age workers who are laid off exit the labor force. 2/n

#QLmonthly updated with February data. No material weakness in the labor market but quits are flashing a contradictory signal. This month we explore how quits relate to worker expectations and to forecasting. 1/n.