Larry Sukernik
@lsukernik
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Did a light analysis of the cryptoasset market. It's surprising how few projects are actually tackling novel ideas. P.S. assigning a sector to projects was a guesstimate, at best. Most of the projects are all over the place in their marketing.
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Will defi projects consolidate like the banking industry has?
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Playing around with crypto Robinhood, and I’m getting a bit worried. It feels like a video game; something about giving addicts crack feels wrong.
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Five years ago, you could spend 20 hours a week and you'd be fully up-to-date on the crypto industry.
Now, you could spend 100 hours a week and you'd still be catching up.
That's how specializations form in markets.
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I get really excited when markets tank (bitcoin, Dow, alts). It means folks get antsy and stop thinking clearly. That’s often when the best opportunities can be found.
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1/ I rarely write tweetstorms because I prefer the longform written word for topics of weight.
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Nothing but respect for Coinbase for playing fair and square and winning the long-run game.
It's really hard to do the right thing when competitors are playing dirty. But it pays off in the end.
Losers lose, winners win.
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The elephant in the room is just how few users most dapps have
When you consider that projects spent millions of dollars on token-based incentives and still have so few users, the only reasonable conclusion I could come to is the product isn't good
Many are too nervous to pivot
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Seeing outsiders call out Terra, Celsius, and Stepn, and I can’t help but think crypto insiders who knew this all along should have been more vocal about the bad actors
Traditional wisdom says it’s bad for business to punch down. But maybe it’s worth calling out bad actors early
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Engineer quits an ICO project after disagreements. This is how the beginning of the end will look.
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Was randomly Googling this morning — Apple has outperformed bitcoin over the last five years.
Buffett undeniably the GOAT.
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Seeing a disturbing trend where DAOs focus on ~vibes~ over output
The long-term impact from this is troubling
You essentially promote the ~vibers~ and demote the doers
Over time, the doers will leave for productive organizations and you’re left with only the vibers
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most defi protocols are features, not products
incredibly excited for the consolidation over the next 2-5 years
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Most of the time, you get very little “alpha” from following established people
They generally have many relationships in the industry and won’t say true but potentially offensive things
Undiscovered people w/ no relationships generally see things more clearly + speak the truth
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I think about Cisco's price chart frequently.
It's probably the most well-known example of investors overpaying for "infrastructure" plays.
20 years later, and it still hasn't grown into its dot-com valuation.
Many lessons here for crypto investors.
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In 2014, Stellar received a $3M loan from Stripe in return for 2B lumens (worth $1.8B today). Wonder if Stripe still owns the XLM.
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People are still sleeping on DAO governance.
There are literally *billions of dollars* waiting to be put to use by tokenholders.
It would be the equivalent of Stripe saying "our balance sheet is publicly available for you to fund your best ideas."
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People love to hate announcement tweets.
But announcements are a necessary thing. You have to tell people what you're up to.
Last year,
@derek_hsue
and I left our jobs to work on DAOs full time.
And we liked working on DAOs so much we started
@hi_Reverie
.
What's Reverie?
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What bitcoin taught me. Interesting things tend to start at the fringes of society. Most journalists don’t know what they’re talking about. Herds follow true believers. Question everything.
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The only way to access billions sitting in project treasuries is through "governance"
Unfortunately until now, there was almost no coverage of what's actually happening in the governance "boardrooms" of projects
@derek_hsue
& I are starting a podcast to bring governance to life
Excited to announce a new project
@lsukernik
and I have been working on - "I Pledge Allegiance", a podcast about interesting discussions/proposals happening in crypto governance.
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Like parties, DAOs have a ratio problem: too many dudes and not enough of them putting in work
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Literally the only takeaways I had from Buffett’s bitcoin comments are (i) you can’t be well-versed in every topic but you can still do very well, and (ii) someone’s disbelief is your opportunity.
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As far as I’m aware, this is the first time a network self-reported its quarterly financials, including an income statement and balance sheet.
Tokenholders have claim on tokenholders’ equity!
Yearn community members have created an informal quarterly report that you can view below. This report does not constitute financial advice, and has not been audited by a third-party professional accounting firm.
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the talent exodus out of Coinbase is insane
we may see a second cohort of the "Coinbase Mafia"
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DAOs need to figure out if they’re dealing with the wisdom of the crowds or too many cooks in the kitchen.
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BitMEX Research continues to deliver best in class cryptoasset analysis. Latest piece on Ripple is worth reading.
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Something big is brewing in project governance.
I wrote a short piece on what that big thing is.
Read on for a quick thread 👇
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Noticing people/teams who have historically only focused on Ethereum start exploring Solana
Watching this development closely
While I think ideology/tribalism will always be around in crypto, think its influence is on the decline
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Now that we’re all settled into the new year, now seems like a good time to announce I’ve left
@DCGco
to work on something new (more on that below).
Over the last three years, I had a chance to make 100+ investments for DCG. Incredibly lucky to be in the role for that long.
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Who every crypto company wants to hire: a crypto-native person who knows how to do B2B sales
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I’m very clear on the ETH2 bull case. (ETH is by far my largest position).
But I’d like to better understand the bear case. Has anyone written anything good on it?
E.g.,
- Fees down (less defi and NFT trading)
- L2 economics as a known unknown
- Diff in expectations vs reality
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Feels like a special time in crypto
- people are fed up with ideology/speculation and are ready for tech/products that masses will want to use
- old guard that often owned the narrative is increasingly being challenged
- incumbents are being challenged from all sides
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I was curious about bitcoin price volatility, so I did some quick research.
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Crypto is slowly making people reconsider things from the ground up.
- Money (doesn’t have to be government-issued)
- Art (the physical element isn’t that important)
- Social contracts (they can change)
Rare to see something bring about both technical and social change.
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At
@hi_Reverie
, we love nothing more than getting into the weeds with DAOs.
Having been working with several DAOs for a while now, I published several musings on the state of DAO operations.
Highlights below👇
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Highly sophisticated analysis of what's going on in the cryptoasset world. Ok not really, but it is kind of sad.
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The government of Venezuela is having a token pre-sale. No words.
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26/ Censorship resistant value is new. It’s innovative. It’s disruptive to government-issued value. And it can win.
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Yikes. Wouldn't want some of those names on my balance sheet!
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Also why there’s no use in arguing with people online. “Religious beliefs and political movements are built upon needs and impulses beyond the reach of intellectual attack.”
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Accounts of the dot com bubble like this one are always educational. Seems like hodlers existed back then too.
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Had a founder tell me DeFi isn’t for banking the unbanked and that it’s much better for unbanking the banked.
That’s a cool way of looking at it.
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The signaling game becomes a bit more interesting when you stop looking at the signals and start looking at why the person sending the signal wants to send the signal
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What are the strongest brands on Ethereum?
Etherscan and Uniswap?
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20/ But what they allow for is one attribute that traditional database technology doesn’t have: censorship resistance. It’s a killer app.
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Maybe I’ve read too much about value investing (Graham / Buffett / Klarman), but I feel best in bear markets. Cheap, bargain prices because of blood in the streets.
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24/ Big blocks would make this more difficult. Small blocks are cockroaches. They will always exist. Squash one and 20 more show up.
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Satoshi wrote the code for bitcoin before writing the whitepaper.
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I’m with Satoshi on this one (yeah, yeah, appeal to authority). There’s a lot of talk about governance, but what we’re essentially doing is re-recreating political systems that have existed forever.
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I think the regulatory discussion changes overnight if a crypto app launches and gets >500K DAU's quickly. And it can't just be a trading app
Mainstream appeal is how we win over the long-term
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Have you wondered how the largest crypto funds think about DAO governance?
@derek_hsue
and I brought on
@_jamico
from
@a16z
to talk all-things protocol governance.
If you’re into governance, this one’s a can’t-miss.
Three highlights below👇🏼
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Recorded an absolute banger episode of I Pledge Allegiance with
@hasufl
and
@derek_hsue
this morning.
We covered many areas, including governance of Bitcoin and Ethereum, why DeFi projects are failing to scale, and other DAO-related musings.
Episode dropping next week.
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Always surprised by how few people watch crypto conference presentations/panels
Goldmine of information + often higher quality than a podcast
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I find it hilarious that John Oliver does more diligence than most crypto investors. Curious how EOS will respond.
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The crypto industry hasn’t internalized this yet, but unless you get lucky, you won’t be successful if you’re building technology in search of a customer.
Steve Jobs in 2006 on why it’s tough to make tech products people want:
“A lot of companies do things because it’s technically possible. But in the end, nobody cares. Nobody wants to buy them.”
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Crypto advisor culture is getting out of hand, with certain “advisors” advising nearly a dozen projects. Early stage founders advising other projects is also counterproductive. The frothy market forces everyone close their eyes and ignore the issues, of course.
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Wonderful podcast with
@cryptodemedici
, who also happens to be one of my favorite contrarian investors in the space.
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25/ That is why the status of Bitcoin as a censorship resistant store of value (digital gold) should not be threatened.
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@cryptodemedici
Folks are chasing too many opportunities. Opportunities always existed and will continue for exist. Commit only to the great ones.
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The truth is most defi teams have been checked out for the past year and a half
And with no investors on the board, there was no one to keep teams accountable
So many just rested and vested
Kudos to the few teams that held themselves accountable to tokenholders and themselves
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27/ What people now need is a fungible digital cash. It will not be bitcoin. I would advise companies begin looking for it.
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The future of governance / DAO’s is specialization by function.
Projects will have committees for functions like:
- Treasury management
- Sales and marketing
- Business development
- Product and engineering
It works, and it’s the path of least resistance.
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This was a revelation had by Dee Hock in the late 1960’s / early 1970’s. He was the founder and CEO of Visa.
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me as a VC: the company is operating in a space with high barriers to entry, which makes them impervious to competition; product is best-in-class
me as an angel: the vibes are good, the product sort of makes sense, the team knows can hire
think the angel checks will win
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This latest cohort of ex-Coinbase founders is impressive.
Most have enough money to make a risky bet (starting a startup) + most are frustrated with the bureaucracy of working at large company, so they want to move quickly.
Excited for all of them.
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In the last year, bitcoin is up 3.9x while Silvergate is up 4.6x.
I remember sitting at Silvergate's roadshow presentation, munching on a burger and (soggy) fries, listening to investors hating the stock at ~$12-$15.
Nobody knew what would happen. 🙃
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Average returns with minimal time = diversify.
Outsized returns with 100 hour work week = concentrated bets.
I don’t understand what all the fuss is about. This should be obvious.
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Let's call a spade a spade. Projects are calling themselves decentralized, but there's nothing decentralized about them.
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14/ All scaling would do is make sending around your digital gold cheaper. It wouldn’t make people spend bitcoins.
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The court of social opinion is not a scalable governance framework
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One observation about company vs DAO decision-making.
Company: typically top-down, e.g., CEO thinks X is good to pursue, so capital + resources allocated there.
DAO: bottoms-up, e.g., community finds problem X and swarms the forums/Discord to solve it.
Local gov't vibes.
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Incredible chronology of the key ideas that allowed for Bitcoin.
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Many defi projects are in a weird place. They have a product that works, but they're worried what happens if liquidity mining is turned off.
Many are also unsure about where to go next. Adding incremental features isn't enough, and building adjacent products is hard.
Tough.
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Friendly reminder: you shouldn’t be actively managing your treasury (cash/tokens) if you’re a DAO or company.
You should be holding cash and focusing on finding product market fit/growing users.
People selling active treasury management are selling snake oil.
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Usually a big Dalio fan, but I’m about halfway through Principles and I’m struggling. Agree with most of it, but the writing style is just so dry. Anyone else?
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Younger people have an asymmetric advantage in crypto. They have more time to study it and are less set in their ways. Long term bull case is us.
1/ Seven stats that highlight the positive relationship between Millennials and Bitcoin: More than 1 in 4 prefers Bitcoin to stock market
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The Decred community is awesome. It’s dubious of marketing campaigns that pump prices.
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Over the next 6-12 months, expect to see hundreds of governance experiments being run.
Most experiments will fail. The ones that work will set a standard for what decentralized governance should look like.
Governance is a type of technological innovation. It too needs R&D.
Right now it’s murmured that “decentralized governance” slows down decision-making.
What if that’s a temporary truth?
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It’s interesting how someone’s work style can be so heavily influenced by a prior boss/employer.
It’s the equivalent of parental conditioning, but in a work setting.
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16/ If I were running a bitcoin business, I would give up on BTC for payments and pick another coin (which has supply inflation).
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Still in shock how few people really *get* crypto.
But then I’m reminded that many people didn’t *get* the internet either.
Foundational technology doesn’t need to be understood to be used.
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5/ This is for two reasons. a) it makes no sense to spend something today that will be worth more tomorrow.
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Somewhat surprised we haven’t seen more dual class tokens yet, which would function like dual class shares.
Class A: 1 token, 1 vote (for public, investors)
Class B: 1 token, 10 votes (for team)
Over time, make Class B to convert to Class A.
Progressive decentralization!
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13/ Layer 2 scaling (lightning network) would theoretically give improved scaling. Strong engineers hate level 1 scaling. It’s inelegant.
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DAO activity is heating up fast.
- Million-dollar enterprise contracts (
@compoundfinance
and
@OpenZeppelin
)
- Significant M&A (
@feiprotocol
and
@RariCapital
)
- Grants (
@dydxprotocol
)
All powered by tokenholder governance.
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Fascinating to think about what happens when communities start using their treasuries as a company would use its balance sheet.
- Diversification
- Growth incentives
- Investments and acquisitions
- Advertising/marketing
- Borrowing against assets
Early days.
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The era of money growing on trees for crypto projects is likely over. That means no more spraying and praying.
Now, teams need to think hard about what internal initiatives to invest in.
To help teams develop a mental model for spending, I wrote a piece on capital allocation👇
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Crypto people are almost always night owls
Need to start a morning mafia crew to compete 😈
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One of the most magical parts of crypto is how rarely you run into someone for who crypto is just a 9-5 job.
Instead, the feeling is always manifest destiny.
Hard to explain the feeling to those who aren’t part of an industry that has this feature.
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3/ To cut to the punch, I believe SegWit2x is antithetical to Bitcoin. This is for ideological and economic reasons.
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