overdie
@losesomewin
Followers
438
Following
24K
Media
125
Statuses
1K
I win some lose some | @zscdao member
Joined January 2017
**U.S app isn’t even out of beta
95
82
417
is this the easiest NO on Polymarket? since 1927 women rarely win title (it was actually "Man of the Year" until 1999). the short list: Elizabeth II (1952), Aquino (1986), Melinda Gates with Bill Gates and Bono (2005), Merkel (2015), Greta (2019), Kamala Harris with Biden
12
1
35
Golden Globes is coming up. "Best Actor Drama" looks decided > the leader: Wagner Moura (74.5%) - The Secret Agent our guy Pablo Escobar from Narcos just made history: first brazilian ever nominated in this category. why the market thinks it’s a lock: - HFPA loves
4
0
21
MicroStrategy insider detected? > trader arme created a fresh account today > started buying YES 16h ago at 43c ($38k size) on the mstr purchase market > 30 mins ago microstrategy confirms: 10,624 btc acquired > market odds flew straight to >99% > arme is currently sitting on
5
0
19
monsters in Hawkins vs. monsters in Hollywood the 1st spot is a no-brainer: Stranger Things 5. but who takes silver? it might seem obvious, but i’m backing Sean Combs: The Reckoning for the 2nd slot. here is the logic: > it captures the biggest music industry scandal of the
the most stress-free play on Polymarket the market closes this sunday dec 7, giving us 5 days of data to analyze. Stranger Things 5 is currently dominating every single regional chart i’ve looked at. the only potential competitor is "Sean Combs: The Reckoning". true crime docs
4
0
14
the most predictable market of the year on Polymarket it’s december 7, just 18 days until Christmas. i think we can all hear that sound... every December, it's the same script: > get the tree out > buy gifts > play Mariah Carey facts: > she takes #1 Global every single year >
5
0
22
OpenAI odds are waking up exactly as predicted since my last post, the sentiment shifted a little: > "best model end of 2025": 10.4% → 21% > "second best model end of dec": 9.5% → 28.5% Google is still leading the main markets, but the coding sector just got flipped. OpenAI
OpenAI vs Google wars are heating up 3 years ago Google panicked over ChatGPT. now Sam Altman is reportedly declaring "code red" because Gemini is crushing it. rumor is a new reasoning model is dropping soon to flip the momentum. i doubt they beat Gemini 3 fundamentally.
6
0
17
finally the market we all needed is live on Polymarket i read the Cloudflare incident logs for 2025 so you don't have to. it’s literally a crime scene. 13 critical (red) incidents this year. the most critical ones: > june 12. broad outage. workers KV dependency failed,
20
0
20
the most stress-free play on Polymarket the market closes this sunday dec 7, giving us 5 days of data to analyze. Stranger Things 5 is currently dominating every single regional chart i’ve looked at. the only potential competitor is "Sean Combs: The Reckoning". true crime docs
6
0
23
Pokemon cards trending again? I have a better idea! Like this post if you want one too
152
68
296
everyone is betting on AI, but the market is missing a huge edge crowd is betting on AI as a concept. history shows Time does this occasionally: "the computer" (1982), "endangered earth" (1988), "you" (2006), "the protester" (2011). > Artificial Intelligence (37%). the logic
5
0
17
just discovered Polymarket also has markets for the 2nd and 3rd largest companies let’s run the numbers current caps: > NVIDIA - $4.44T > Apple - $4.16T > Alphabet - $3.82T > Microsoft - $3.55T the gaps here are massive. Apple is ~330B ahead of Google. Google is ~270B ahead of
Polymarket is betting on the world's largest company by dec 31. today is dec 3. only 28 days left. the gap is tight, but market momentum is king. let’s look at the math. first, let's clear the noise: Alphabet (Google) is out. the court rejected the DOJ's breakup demands,
6
0
22
Google employees are trading their own data on Polymarket caught two traders with suspicious activity trader 1: 0xafEe (previously AlphaRaccoon but he changed it today thinking we wouldn't find him haha nice try) > previously won $100k+ predicting the exact gemini 3 release
11
1
36
Polymarket is betting on the world's largest company by dec 31. today is dec 3. only 28 days left. the gap is tight, but market momentum is king. let’s look at the math. first, let's clear the noise: Alphabet (Google) is out. the court rejected the DOJ's breakup demands,
8
0
26
OpenAI vs Google wars are heating up 3 years ago Google panicked over ChatGPT. now Sam Altman is reportedly declaring "code red" because Gemini is crushing it. rumor is a new reasoning model is dropping soon to flip the momentum. i doubt they beat Gemini 3 fundamentally.
8
0
26
we nailed the previous TSA market, so let’s run it back. dec 1 data is already out: 2,889,561. this was the post-thanksgiving peak. dec 2-7 is officially the "dead week" before christmas. volume drops hard here. napkin math: 2.89m (mon) + ~13.8m (6 days of ~2.3m avg) =
looking at the "Number of TSA passengers November 23-30?" market. we don't need to snipe a single day record here, the goal is to predict the total flow for the entire 8-day holiday marathon. here is my logic: if we sum up the same 8 days from last year we get a baseline of
6
0
27
Wealthfront is officially launching its IPO it was just announced that the company has started its investor roadshow, signaling that a listing is imminent. IPO details: • price: 12-14 • valuation: ~$2B • raise: aiming for up to $485M the best part: in 2022, UBS tried to buy
8
1
28
we are witnessing the death of "breaking news" in real time 2020: refresh Google to know what’s happening 2025: check Polymarket to know what will happen legacy media sells attention. prediction markets sell accuracy. the competition is embarrassing: • Google gives you 10
8
0
19
someone on Polymarket is betting like it's a done deal in the last 30 minutes, two new traders aggressively deployed massive amounts on a fed rate increase (25+ bps) for december. one user, "okurage", created their account yesterday and just deployed over $645k on this outcome.
4
0
24