Yosemite Valley

Putuoshan, China

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Half Dome

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Key Differences: Nuclear deterrence, globalized trade (e.g., China’s role in 30% of global manufacturing), and fluid alliances (e.g., India’s neutrality) distinguish 2025 from 1939. China’s calculated coercion (e.g., Taiwan drills) contrasts with Germany’s rapid conquests.

The “Phoney War” lull persists, with Taiwan and Korea as potential triggers akin to Germany’s 1940 invasions. X posts amplify fears, with users citing China’s “decline” as a catalyst for war.

1939 Analogy Reassessed:.Strengthened Parallels: China’s demographic and economic pressures, paired with Xi’s ideological ambition, mirror 1939’s economic strains (e.g., Japan’s resource scarcity) and leadership-driven aggression (e.g., Hitler’s Sudetenland).

but 2027’s Taiwan milestone and economic desperation elevate medium-term concerns. Urgent diplomacy, economic dialogue, and deterrence are critical to prevent escalation.

The 1939 “Phoney War” analogy is strengthened by these pressures, echoing pre-WWII economic and leadership-driven aggression, but nuclear deterrence, global trade, and diplomacy reduce the likelihood compared to 1939. Short-term risks are 15–20% (1–2 years).

Demographic decline and economic strain create urgency for Xi to act on Taiwan before 2035, while his legacy-driven nationalism heightens miscalculation risks, potentially linking to Korean, Ukrainian, and Middle East flashpoints.

Interesting analysis i did with @Grok .The final estimate:. China’s shrinking population, severe economic problems, and Xi Jinping’s aspiration to be Taiwan’s “liberator” increase the risk of a World War III-like conflict to 30–40% within five years (by 2030), up from 25–35%.

Hallstadt, Austria

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Early morning view of Yosemite Valley

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מסלול טיסה מהיום. נראה שמישהו מספר סיפורים על פגיעה משמעותית. כששמים לב לניסוח של הרמטכ"ל "הדגמנו יכולת לפגיעה משמעותית." הוא לא אומר פגענו משמעותית בחותים. ��ותם הבלים של לפני . 7.10 חוזרים

RT @leshem_amir: Yosemite