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Lacrosse Reference: It's like FiveThirtyEight, but for lacrosse.
✅Live Win Probabilities during games
✅Projections for each and every game
✅Innovative Team and Player Rankings
✅Graphs, charts, and other eye candy
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We are 34 days away from counts-for-real college lacrosse.
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Final
@TerpsMLax
opponent-adjusted rankings (i.e. gold standard):
Offense: 1st
Defense: 1st
Save Pct: 1st
FO Win Rate: 1st
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There is real-life-college-lacrosse this month. The wait is almost over.
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Now for the QBs. These are the players with the highest share of their team's assists.
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I'm going to run a season-long challenge around win totals. I'll set a win total for every D1 team. You pick over or under. Winner is the one with the most correct O/U predictions over the course of the season.
Who's in?
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A picture is worth a thousand words...
The
#1
player in college lacrosse, men’s and women’s, is Charlotte North. We don’t even need to discuss it, the proof is all around us😂
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Do I think
@CornellLacrosse
is 41 percent better than the next best defense in Division 1 Men's lacrosse? Probably not.
Is Cornell currently the best opponent-adjusted defense in the country? Yes, yes they are.
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I love the 2023 season. Here's where the D1 MLAX computer rankings have ended up after this weekend's games.
Moving Up:
@NDlacrosse
,
@DukeMLAX
,
@RUmlax
,
@UMBC_MLax
,
@SpiderMLAX
Moving Down: Yale, Delaware, UMass
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Here's my Top-20 entry for the
@College_Crosse
MLAX poll. I think this is the most movement I've ever had in the LR rankings
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Your top expected-goals-added (EGA) performances from the week that was in D1 MLAX.
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Here are the top-20 individual statistical performances of Week 3 in men's D1 lacrosse, ranked by EGA.
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Here are the top-10 individual EGA performances of the past week in D1 MLAX.
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GB-per-game leaders are skewed by the willingness or scorers to award a GB or not. What we really care about is GB win rate.
@NDlacrosse
is the best GB team in the country.
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As of this moment, if we measure each team's collections of wins and losses, the most impressive records are
1
@RUmlax
2
@OhioStateMLAX
3
@HoyasMLacrosse
4
@TerpsMLax
5
@UVAMensLax
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This 10-game run by
@NDlacrosse
, beginning after their loss to UVA last March 26th, has been pretty incredible, both in terms of results and statistically.
As of this morning, the Irish have the
#1
SOR in D1 MLAX.
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Here are your top-10 individual EGA performances of the past week in D1 MLAX.
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The Faceoff Elo model adjusts a player's faceoff win rate to account for the strength of the opposing FOGOs; here's the current top-10 from DI MLAX.
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1/ Just to put this "Rutgers shouldn't get in" stuff to rest: the Knights are the 4th best opp-adjusted offense in MLAX. They are the 10th best D. They played the 9th toughest schedule and have the 9th best resume.
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The faceoff Elo ratings for D1 MLAX show the top rated FOGOs across the country. It's likely an opponent-adjusted faceoff win rate.
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Here are the 3 stars for Feb 18th in Division I MLAX
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Here's the final LacrosseReference rankings for the 2022 Division 1 Men's lacrosse season
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Justin Wietfeldt's big day in the
@UMichLacrosse
win over Maryland was enough to push him to the top of the D1 MLAX faceoff Elo ratings.
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My opponent-adjusted efficiencies got the
@LacrosseNetwork
treatment. Shout out to the design geniuses
@joekeegs
and
@LiamMurphy_603
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Here are the top-10 individual MLAX EGA performances of championship week.
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Here's your first LacrosseReference Top-20 for the D1 MLAX season. How badly does the model hate your team?
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These are the snipers. The 10 players with the best shooting percentage (min 30 shots taken) so far this season.
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What a week that was. Here are the top individual EGA performances of the last 7 MLAX days.
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Here's the final LacrosseReference computer rankings from the past week of DIII Men's lacrosse.
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These were the top-10 most impressive statistical performances of the past week in D1 MLAX. Big day for the
@UMichLacrosse
offense...
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Here are the 3 Stars for April 9th in Division I Men's lacrosse.
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Here are the top-10 defenses in the early going as measured by opponent-adjusted EGA.
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We've had a shake-up in the DIII MLAX computer ratings.
Moving Up:
@DenisonLacrosse
,
@Tufts_Lacrosse
,
@KenyonMensLax
,
@Saints_MLax
In:
@AmherstMLAX
,
@JCUmlax
,
@CabriniMLAX
Moving Down: Cortland, Lynchburg, Elmhurst, Dickinson
Out: Ithaca, Saint Vincent, Ohio Northern
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Quick look at the Men's lacrosse Efficiency Matrix. BU looks like they belong in that top-tier. What do you think?
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Here's my current Bracketology. This is as-of-right-now resumes, not projecting anything going forward.
Safely In: GTown, Yale
Last two in: Nova, Denver
First two out: Penn, Rutgers
Next two out: Cuse, UNC
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Here are your 10 most impressive MLAX performances as measured by overall production plus individual efficiency.
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Here are the top-10 best resumes in D1 MLAX based on how impressive their win total is given the schedule they played.
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Kavanagh's A:TO ratio for
@NDLacrosse
is the best in all of D1 MLAX going back to 2015.
Pat Kavanagh ('23) - 3.46
Michael Sowers ('20) - 3.10
Ryan Drenner ('16) - 2.88
Grant Ament ('19) - 2.82
Matt Schultz ('16) - 2.75
Jonah Moore ('17) - 2.75
Stephen Rehfuss ('21) - 2.64
@NDlacrosse
@NCAALAX
- This isn’t a typical lacrosse stat, but I think it’s gotta be up there for a single season performance. Am I crazy?
@laxreference
- any insight?
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Here are the 3 Stars for March 12th in Division I Men's lacrosse
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New look for the weekly EGA leaders. Here are the top statistical stat lines from the past week in D1 MLAX.
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CJ Kirst ( vs BRWN ) had the most impressive statistical performance of the past week in DI MLAX
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Updating the Statistical Tewaaraton race after week 3:
Ament (PSU): 16.5 EGA
O'Keefe (PSU): 14.1
Solomon (UNC): 13.5
Bernhardt (MD): 13.2
Grillo (PROV): 12.5
Gray (UNC): 12.3
Sopko (BUCK): 12.2
Madsen (STJohns): 12.2
Wisnauskas (MD): 12.1
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Here are the 3 Stars for March 8th in Division I Men's lacrosse.
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Congrats to
@SHUmenslax
on being the first team in.
Here's what the RPI-based resume ranking looks like if the following teams win
Princeton
GTOWN
ND
PSU
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Checking in on the D1 MLAX specialists. As always, the upper right corner is where you want to be. You can see the impact of Staudt for
@LoyolaMLAX
, Wierman for
@TerpsMLax
and Knote for
@UMassMLacrosse
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Here are the 3 Stars for May 5th in Division I Men's lacrosse.
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1/ If you'll indulge a bit of LacrosseReference narrative...
I started this project as a hobby back in 2015 because I am stubborn and I didn't like the fact that I couldn't find a real-time win probability estimate for a game I was watching.
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Here are the 10 players from across DIII Men's lacrosse with the highest faceoff Elo ratings.
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First look at LacrosseReference Bracketology. This is the result of 1,200 simulations of the remainder of the DI MLAX season. To qualify as a lock, you must have made the NCAA tournament in every one. To qualify as a bubble team, you must have at least a 1% chance at an at-large.
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Here are the 3 stars for Division I Women's Lacrosse for Feb 18th, 2022.
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Here are your top-10 individual EGA performances from the past week in D1 MLAX. Visual version.
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Without further ado, your 3 Stars for Apr 8th in DI Men's lacrosse
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Everything they said is true. The good wins and the fact that there were no bad losses actually means that their resume was 13th best when measured using Strength-of-Record.
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Here are the 3 Stars for March 11th in Division I Men's Lacrosse
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Tuesday means Top EGA performances of the week that was. Here's the 10 best statistical performances of the past 7 days in DI MLAX.
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Lehigh is (deservedly) getting a lot of attention. Here's one reason they've been so successful this year. Here are the top 10 MLAX teams by possession margin.
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Johnny Hackett ( vs UMBC ) had the most impressive statistical performance of the past week in DI MLAX
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This is the current Faceoff Elo ratings. This algorithm adjusts each FOGO's win rate based on how good the opposing FOGOs were.
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Look at the gap between
@TerpsMLax
and everyone else. That is a chasm. Just in a separate class.
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Here are the 3 Stars for April 23rd in Division I Men's lacrosse
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As we inch towards Selection Sunday, let's check in on the top MLAX defenses. 100 = league-average
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By our new excess shooting % metric, the top 5 pure shooting teams of '20 were:
@CornellLacrosse
@PennStateMLAX
@LIUMLAX
@UAlbanyMLax
@MercerLacrosse
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If any college coaches would like to do a statistical debrief and see what the advanced stats have to say about your 2022 season, DM me.
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Here are the 10 most productive individual performances from the past week in Division I MLAX, as measured by expected-goals-added (EGA).
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Here is the D1 MLAX
#EfficiencyMatrix
heading into the weekend's games. Surprised by anyone's position?
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Here they are. The top-10 statistical performances from the past week of Division I Men's Lacrosse.
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In the revolving door that is the top of the faceoff Elo ratings, Justin Wietfeldt has regained the spot as the highest-rated faceoff specialists in all of DI MLAX.
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Here's the Efficiency Matrix for DI MLAX. Best defenses are on top; best offenses are to the right.
Top 3 Opponent-Adjusted Defenses: Ohio State, Richmond, Maryland
Top 3 Opponent-Adjusted Offenses: Notre Dame, Duke, Cornell
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Here are the LacrosseReference computer rankings after the weekend's DI MLAX games.
Moving Up:
@DU_MLAX
,
@YaleLacrosse
,
@PennStateMLAX
,
@UVAMensLax
In:
@LehighLacrosse
,
@SpiderMLAX
,
@Bryant_MLax
Moving Down: COR, BU, LOY, PENN
Out: UNC, MASS, PRIN
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With his 20 out of 21 game against Bucknell, Mikey Sisselberger has made his way back to the top of the faceoff Elo ratings.
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41
The D1 MLAX week is in the books; LacrosseReference computer ratings say...
Moving Up:
@JAX_MLAX
,
@YaleLacrosse
,
@UMBC_MLax
,
@ArmyWP_MLax
Moving Down: Princeton, Delaware, Penn, Robert Morris
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Merry Christmas everyone!
College lacrosse starts in 34 days...
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With the MD win, the Terps jump to the top of the SOR rankings. So far, the most impressive records are
1
@TerpsMLax
2
@RUmlax
3
@OhioStateMLAX
4
@HoyasMLacrosse
5
@UVAMensLax
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The most surprising thing about my Week 4 poll is that there are 3 Patriot league teams, none of whom are named Lehigh or Loyola. What do you think?
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Here are the current "best" MLAX resumes according to the Strength-of-Record rankings.
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Without further ado, your 3 Stars for Mar 29th in DI Men's lacrosse
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Here's where the rankings settled after this week's D1 MLAX games.
In:
@ArmyWP_MLax
,
@SpiderMLAX
Out: UNC, Nova
Moving Up:
@PennMensLax
,
@OhioStateMLAX
,
@DukeMLAX
,
@LehighLacrosse
Moving Down: Rutgers, GTown
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CareerHighAlert!
Skylar McArthur with a career high yesterday for both ground balls and caused turnovers. And her play share of 10.6% means she was all over the box score for
@CanisiusWLAX
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Here it is; the top individual player performances (by EGA) of the past week of games. Ashton Wood of
@MercerLacrosse
snags the top spot this week.
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Without further ado, your 3 Stars for Feb 24th in DI Men's lacrosse
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It's time for the weekly EGA leaders; here are the 10 players with the best combination of efficiency and production this week
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After yesterday's action, here's the current RPI top-10 in DI MLAX
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Justin Coppola is currently the highest-rated faceoff specialist in all of DI MLAX.
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Here are the 10 players from across DIII Men's lacrosse with the highest faceoff Elo ratings.
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