2025 Tasmanian Election Guide: Main Page #politas.

Current expected seat totals by readers of my site in my sidebar Not-A-Polls. Lib 12.1.ALP 12.4.Greens 4.9.IND 5.1.other 0.5. Not much movement since these started. #politas.

RT @kevinbonham: How To Best Use Your Vote In The 2025 Tasmanian Election. #politas.

One of the many things these people are missing is that while Labor's primary vote is modest it is becoming better and better distributed. Thus Labor led on primaries nationwide by only 2.74% but was ahead on primaries in 29 more individual seats than Coalition was.

Still way way way too many silly anti-preferencers on here clinging to their delusion that Labor only won the 2025 federal election because of preferences.

2025 Federal Post-Election Pendulum. We now have a federal pendulum skew like Victoria at state level; without redistribution the Coalition could need 51% 2PP just to put Labor into minority.

These increases are going to be significant for the count on election night; with postals also not being counted til well into the week it will be substantially less complete on the night than 2024. #politas.

RT @ElectionsTas: Friday 11 July: A network outage is currently affecting telephone voting and call centre services. We apologise for the i….

Earlier (corrected) the Liberals had registered a TassieDoc website!.

. also that he says that it was "unconstitutional" for Labor to refuse to form government with the Greens after the no-confidence motion. Way too much of this Hung Parliament Club nonsense out there, much of which seems to emenate indirectly from Underwood's 2010 reasons.

#politas After putting this up I was tipped off that Garland had appeared in a Michael Gray Griffith video. Video had none of what I expected to see after watching Griffith + Sladden and for nearly all of it Garland comes across very well. Except for claim below and . .

🍿🍿🍿.Paul Lennon registers business name "TasInsure", because the Liberals . did not do that. #politas.

Between him formally leaving the party and it deregistering, if he was still involved with the party would he then have been an Independent Independents for Canberra MP a la Independent Labor/Liberal ?.

Independents for Canberra deregisters as a party sometime after its sole MLA resigns from party and sits as an independent. #actpol.

Second one is that it is not correct the Greens, on any possible numbers, can force Dean Winter to be Premier. At least not for any period of time. Any person appointed Premier who did not wish to serve in the circumstances could simply resign.

Here is a statement of correct convention by Anne Twomey from The Veiled Sceptre. "unless he or she requests and is granted a dissolution". Rockliff requested and was granted. His actions were entirely in accordance with convention.

First thing here; there is not a convention that a Premier in whom a no confidence motion is passed must resign full stop. Many state Premiers in such a case (including Holgate 1982) have sought an election as an alternative. One (Lawson Vic 1921) even did so and won! #politas.

#DemosAU 59-41 to ALP with miserable Coalition primary. More evidence in favour of Labor still being in second honeymoon (re-elected govts don't always get one but they tend to if they overperform expectations).

Questions put in an agree/disagree format are prone to acquiescence bias, would be better to give respondents a choice of two statements. Breakdowns by party support are of some interest though. #politas.

Craig Garland just said I said he had no chance of winning in Braddon 2024. This was not true at any time, there were times I thought he was unlikely to get up. See postcount thread #politas.

RT @heidimur: For those asking - the next chapter in the Vic-Lib-on-Lib war will not tee off court at 9:30 as originally scheduled. Direct….