Julia Gray
@juliacartergray
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Joined November 2014
Without decisive action, the WTO risks drifting into irrelevance. This moment will define the next era of global trade. 6/6 #WTO #TradeCrisis #Multilateralism #InstitutionalChange
cambridge.org
Life, Death, Inertia, Change: The Hidden Lives of International Organizations - Volume 34 Issue 1
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Change: Members call an emergency meeting, suspend concessions to the US, and allow temporary waivers of nondiscrimination. This would allow countries to respond within the WTO framework, preserving legitimacy. But change requires leadership—an institutional entrepreneur. 5/6.
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The death path: Members abandon the rules altogether. Countries leave, dispute settlement collapses even further, and the WTO ceases to be a meaningful venue for trade governance. 4/6.
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Zombie path: countries retaliate unilaterally. Some stretch WTO rules, others raise tariffs on all to maintain MFN. No one exits, but the WTO enters its zombie phase—still standing, no longer effective. 3/6.
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Life path: the US backs down, giving the WTO time to adapt and retool for effective trade governance. Maybe. 2/6.
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Institutions move among four states: Life, Zombie, Change, or Death. The #WTO is at a crossroads. How it responds to US tariffs will shape the future of global trade. 🧵1/6.
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Draws from my @The_PEIO special issue on The Life Cycle of International Cooperation, along with other great research
link.springer.com
The Review of International Organizations - International organizations’ lives often extend far beyond the moment of their initial contracting. How IOs do adapt to shifting circumstances in...
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Global trade governance is giving _28 Years Later_: crippled, chaotic, and somehow still going. Is zombie internationalism the future of economic order? My latest at @GoodAuthority ⬇️.
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Global trade governance is giving _28 Years Later_: crippled, chaotic, and somehow still going. Is 'zombie internationalism' the future of economic order? My latest at @GoodAuthority ⬇️.
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Marriott 305, Friday at 8am, the worst. But as Nancy Pelosi said on the eve of the 2018 midterms, "I think I'm worth the trouble.".
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Featuring @DonnoDaniela @averellschmidt @MartinSteinwand @OFioretos @iBorzyskowski also Ayse Kaya, Tobias Lenz, Henning Schmidtke, Felicity Vabulas.
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Philly @APSAtweets who want perspective on the ups and downs of global cooperation, come learn about IO lifecycles -- and help me realize my elusive dream of having the audience outnumber the 10 fantastic roundtable participants (below)
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11/11 Look for my edited volume on life cycles, currently in progress. I've worked on this topic for over a decade (I presented the very 1st draft of my "Life, Death, or Zombies?" article at Princeton in 2012), and I've loved seeing so much new research in this important area.
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10/11 This issue started w @isanet Venture Research Workshop by me and @loricrasnic and hosted by @stefwalter__ in 2019, w a '21 follow-up at @EUI_Schuman. Its journey mirrored the very cycles we study, facing near-demise at points. I've truly lived this research! thx @DreherAxel.
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9/11 How does public opinion shape IO withdrawals? Felicity Vabulas and @iBorzyskowski find US mass support for multilateralism splits based on party ID, with IO exits framed as national interest boosting favorability. Spin matters, across party lines
link.springer.com
The Review of International Organizations - The United States has helped create and lead many international organizations (IOs). Yet in the last six years, the US announced its withdrawal from...
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8/11 Treaty withdrawals are a double-edged sword. @aschmidt shows they can hasten one treaty's reform but stymie progress elsewhere on a larger scale. The net effects on international law are negative -- which shows that IO exits have ripple effects,
link.springer.com
The Review of International Organizations - I argue that treaty withdrawal has two opposing effects on the development of international law. First, it directly impacts the treaty where it occurs by...
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7/11 When IOs falter, should we reform or replace them? @Mer29Eilstrup and Daniel Verdier highlight the tradeoffs that countries face. Successors might overcome old hurdles, but risk limited membership.
link.springer.com
The Review of International Organizations - Given high costs of negotiating formal international institutions, states are widely expected to adapt, reform, and repurpose existing institutions...
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6/11 (Related thread below: leaders only started showing up en masse to the UN in the last 25 years, and their incentives have changed the way that the UNGA does business.)
Ever wondered what world leaders talk about when they talk at the UNGA? Themselves, more or less. Alex Baturo and I have a new piece @the_peio, part of my special issue on the life cycles of international organizations. Thread (1/5)
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