Jon Ogg
@jonogg
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Investor with 30 years stock, bond, economic coverage. Financial newsletter for Advisors, Active/HNW investors looking for gains and income.
Texas
Joined December 2008
Bitcoin Dilemma $BTC via largest $IBIT ETF... Despite the significant pressure, open interest too old to use, but Monthly puts/calls expiring tomorrow... Jan. 30 was 27,024,546 shares short (1.98% of float) versus prior short interest of 23,743,001 shares. Call Open Interest
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And while some might say the same on every account, that is "supposed" to be private. The difference is that they are supposed to be serving the public and we are supposed to elect them. In a perfect system that is... and nothing is ever really perfect outside of math.
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While everyone should (I wish) know their own candidates, it's often impossible to keep up with who is who (or whom) and what angle they are coming from on national or out of state/precint lines. Many of their websites even have fuzzy lines that seem to hide in plain sight.
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Just raw data... Market Leaders percent down from 52-week high and up from 52-week low $ORCL -54.74% +31.65% $IBIT -48.41% +4.96% $MSFT -27.66% +16.55% $AMD -22.89% +169.27% $AMZN -22.82% +23.68% $AVGO -20.12% +139.80% $META -18.39% +35.43% $TSLA -16.39% +94.67% $NVDA -11.90%
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I said to @kylewhitegoat that $SOFI will deserve a fresh look if challenges $20. Hard to step in front of falling knives w/ hi-beta, crypto, fintech & bank had selloffs, but now -28% in 1 month & -40% since NOV/2025. Maybe time to take a closer look to decide yes/no.
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Anyone notice any trend here in global 2-year Treasury equivalent rates? That's 1.364% at very bottom to be clear.
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Versant's $VSNT public market reception has been awful. Lower ratings are one thing. Some questions: Does the public trust them? Do the personalities jive with public? Are the personalities activists or anchors? Should CNBC ask to leave? What about its stock chart?
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Jamie Dimon annual compensation approved for $43 million n 2025 vs $39 milllion for 2024. That said, $41.5M of 2025 is Performance-Based Variable Incentive Compensation (with $36.5 million in at-risk Performance Share Units).
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Am I alone in thing the financial markets are still greatly discounting (or as I see it, undervaluing) Post-Powell FOMC rate cuts from 3.5-3.75% today? Out to December/2026, largest bets are still just 3-3.25%... only 50 basis points lower.
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Better late than never... $BTC Bitcoin exposure restrictions were lifted yesterday to BofA/Merrill customers allowing customers to buy $IBIT $BITB $FBTC $BTC ETFs unsolicited and without review/approvals that had been in place since bit-etf inceptions.
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CME FedWatch Tool w/ Funds at 3.75-4% ahead expected @FOMC cut today has very low odds of Fed Fund cuts post-Powell over 2026. Trump's new Chairman predicated on rate cuts, Powell out in May/2026. DEC/2026 ODDS: 2.75-3.0020.8% 3.00-3.2531.2% 3.25-3.5026.3% What's missing?
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S&P 500 up 16%+ YTD, versus 8%-10% forecasts from a year ago. Wall Street consensus sees 2026 S&P500 $SPY rising another 11%.... Numbers may change ahead/after New Year but still very 2026 positive outlook as of now. https://t.co/asmyWp71g1
tacticalbulls.com
As 2025 comes to an end, longer-term investors have been planning how they want their assets positioned for 2026. Those who have not been making plans need to start making those plans […]
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The relative valuation metrics of $WMT vs $TGT are more than just out of whack. The problem is that one has major performance issues and it isn't even turning around yet. Tactical investors have trumped value investors. Where does it go from here? https://t.co/HZiOHFdNXo
tacticalbulls.com
The retail sector has faced many challenges throughout 2025. Tariffs, soft consumer spending and trends that are always difficult to nail perfectly. And then there is individual company execution...
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And now nearing noon the NASDAQ has swung nearly 900 points lower and into he red from the morning's highs. That's the stock market for you.
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Lows of the day on $NVDA isn't the world's best read for its share price action when technical damage was done as $VIX hit 25 two days ago. That said, hard to not notice about 20 analysts sticking with or raising higher price targets... https://t.co/h1aawDLFer
tacticalbulls.com
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) was posing a big risk to the market’s continual banking on endless A.I. growth and defying lofty valuations for it and all downstream players in A.I. The leader […]
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... and knowing that it would hurt personal investments in MSFT AMZN TSLA... and Anthropic and xAI... that's why it's a serious dilemma... And the AI programs all have AI listed as the top theme for "Top investment themes of 2026"... https://t.co/jlaAeLooaZ
tacticalbulls.com
At this point, there are now less than 45 days remaining in 2025. Stocks have so far outperformed almost all expectations heading into the year, with the S&P 500 (SPY) up over […]
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Serious investor/personal dilemma: Wanting the market to be able to start moving on $NVDA "NVIDIA & AI ONLY! ALL DAY EVERY DAY!" but knowing that moving on will mean the market indexes will all suffer and drag all related tech/growth down with it. NVDA +4% to +2% in AH trading
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Investing reality - If you have long-term "allocation" strategy in crypto $BTC $IBIT $ETH $XRP and physical metals like $GLD $SLV for gold/silver but did enter euphoria at recent all-time highs, why would you shit the proverbial bed even in the recent serious sell-off? Thoughts?
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Armchair opinion: whichever $PARA $CMCSA $NFLX win on Warner/Discovery $WBD buyout seems a $57 billion value may be way overpaying for what could have been acquired for much lower price had they negotiated harder w/ packages when mgmt was up against the wall over last 2+ years.
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A couple more days of selling may pressure the rest of the market, but I always wonder how crypto/AI forced liquidations occur at 10-15 percent selloff (ex-3X ETFs). Leverage can kill many investor dreams as most of us aren't good at extreme bets w/ specific timing.
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