https://t.co/8uZKsbTueo

As always, not every institution, source market, or program category will face the same dynamics, but in aggregate, that's the shape of the curve.

There are far fewer "finishers", "deferrers", and "workers" coming through the pipeline. On the flipside, universities will need to think about how they moderate their expectations for growth in international student enrolments for those same reasons.

But there is a downside - following the surge there must be a normalisation of student flows when the recovery is complete. My op-ed in The Australian outlines why the Australian Government has less to be concerned about in terms of international students adding to NOM figures.

For quite some time, we at @Navitas have been talking about the post-pandemic v-shaped recovery and catch-up rebound for international education. I've seen enough data to show that this is indeed how the recovery has played out.

@ethanfog Join us at our session where we unpack how international education will grow from 6m in 2019 to 9.8m students in 2030.

See you at AIEC this week. Looking forward to sharing the results of our Global Student Flows Model. Building off a decade of modelling by the British Council, my colleagues @ethanfog and Moji B have done an amazing job casting forward tertiary student flows.

Canada now has quite some work to do to deal with these three threats — unbalanced growth, overheating migration, and the turning on of taps — before too much damage is done to an otherwise thriving international education sector.

Threat 3: Turning on taps after COVID-19 — what we've seen in 2021-22 is an extraordinary rate of growth. For the most part, this growth hasn't been driven by "digging wells": improvements to the product offering, the student experience, and employment outcomes.

Threat 2: Overheating migration — our report highlighted the vicious cycle in post-study migration policy, and the risk that negative public sentiment and bad press will force the government to take a less favourable post-study migration stance.

Threat 1: Unbalanced growth — the recent coverage shows an extreme degree of concentration of students from India in public/private career colleges in Greater Toronto. Five public career colleges have 90% - 99% of international students from India; Fig 10

In 2020, my former Nous colleagues and I highlighed three key threats to Canada's success as an international education powerhouse. https://t.co/9QpQ5Y7ZyO All three threats appear to have played outmore significantly than we would have anticipated at the time.

CBC's Fifth Estate released a sobering story on international students in the Canadian career college sector. Worth watching: https://t.co/0ybQRKgcgO or reading: https://t.co/3Lwig7OPTF This follows another concerning report a few months ago:

"Citizenship is the best expression of that commitment and Tamworth is a great place to celebrate it. Tamworth is a living proof that Australia is, at heart, nation of immigrants." Speech from a Citizenship Ceremony Tamworth 3/3

"What is relevant is your commitment to our parliamentary institutions, to the rule of law, to freedom of speech, to our values of tolerance and a fair go for all in short, your commitment to Australia." 2/3

On the theme of citizenship, a final quote from PM Hawke 26 Jan 1989: "The way you look, the way you dress, the faith you observe, the place you were born they are all important things but they are irrelevant to the question of whether you are a fair-dinkum Australian."1/3

But Australia also has one of the lowest percentages of residents who are citizens.

Australia has amongst the highest rates of foreign-born residents in the world (according to the OECD)

Today, 17 Sept, is Australian Citizenship Day. As we engage in a new and necessary public conversation on migration, perhaps we should also reflect on what it means to complete the journey to become an Australian Citizen.

I find it quite amusing that at the first citizenship ceremony in Albert Hall in 1949, it made sense to make sure that PM Chifley got the first certificate.