 
            
              Aeternus Capital
            
            @inverse_DK
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              Fundamental investor trying to expand my circle of competence. I also like to code
              
              Joined November 2011
            
            
           The 26GW in total compute across the strategic partnerships OpenAI has announced with $NVDA $AMD and $AVGO will require roughly $1 trillion and will roughly 7-10x the compute available to OpenAI. This 26GW is more than the current total combined compute of the hyperscalers. It 
          
                
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             The $META and Blue Owl deal effectively turns what wouldve been an upfront CAPEX for the Louisiana data centre into an annual lease payment. The SPV owns majority of the data centre so the debt won't sit on Meta's balance sheet. This arrangement will reduce profit margins due to 
          
                
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             Increased number of leading edge foundries means more WFE spend which is why semicaps ( $AMAT $ASML $KLAC $LRCX ) are up on the $NVDA $INTC deal. $TSM is down due to more competition being priced in 
          
                
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             I sold out of $LULU for three main reasons: 1. Increased competition from rival brands eg Alo, Vuori: i'm not as convinced on this one as I felt $LULU's higher quality products vs its competitors was a key differentiator for consumers, but these fears have kept weighing on the 
          
                
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             Great day for $GOOGL shareholders. DOJ search remedies weren’t as bad as feared. Fears around what the remedies could be were an overhang on the stock so it’s a positive development. No divestiture of Chrome or Android. No exclusive agreements for Search, Gemini, Chrome, 
          
                
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             $FICO looks interesting here down ~40% from its ATHs. They are in a heavily entrenched position being the credit score of choice for majority of financial institutions, there are also high switching costs for large financial institutions to change their underwriting and credit 
          
                
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             Great day for $GOOGL shareholders. DOJ search remedies weren’t as bad as feared. Fears around what the remedies could be were an overhang on the stock so it’s a positive development. No divestiture of Chrome or Android. No exclusive agreements for Search, Gemini, Chrome, 
          
                
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             $FICO looks interesting here down ~40% from its ATHs. They are in a heavily entrenched position being the credit score of choice for majority of financial institutions, there are also high switching costs for large financial institutions to change their underwriting and credit 
          
                
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             Raymond James summing up my $FICO thesis: 1. Tri-merge requirement is bullish for FICO. 2. FICO is industry standard with network effects + little incentive for lenders to switch to VantageScore. 3. FHFA can’t regulate FICO pricing & can’t force GSEs to stop using FICO scores. 
          
                
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             The only way the privatization of $FNMA and $FMCC works out for the common equity holders is if the IPO proceeds are used to redeem a small portion of the preferred shares, and the remaining liquidation preference is considered forgiven, AND a small portion of the warrants are 
          
                
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             Jassy fumbled the ball on the $AMZN earnings call re AWS losing share to Azure/GCP but $AMZN deserves props for continuing to strengthen the moat of their retail business (30% more items delivered same-day vs last year), and crushing $TTD with their DSP business 
          
                
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             $TTD avoided answering the q about competition from $AMZN by saying $AMZN is a walled garden and thus not a real competitor 
          
                
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             $META now a 6-bagger for me, opportunities like this don’t come around often so glad I took the swing back in 2022 especially in the face of heightened uncertainty at the time 
          
                
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             Asking OpenAI’s o3 to come up a prompt regarding a company/industry you want to research (include quick dot points about areas you want to focus on) and then feeding that back into Deep Research is so good 
          
                
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             Bull case for $GOOGL: Google builds a new walled garden around AI Overviews, as AI responses are so good for users that they don't bother going to websites - making the digital real estate in AI Overviews very valuable and Google able to charge high CPMs as a result 
          
                
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             $AMZN offering aggressively lower fees for its DSP to take market share from $TTD 
          
                
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             No EV makers be earning excess profits on BYD's watch $BYDDY 
          
                
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             Bull case for $GOOGL: Google builds a new walled garden around AI Overviews, as AI responses are so good for users that they don't bother going to websites - making the digital real estate in AI Overviews very valuable and Google able to charge high CPMs as a result 
          
                
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             Am noticing Perplexity sometimes does weird hallucinations where it says a completely false sentence and then cites a source (and there’s nothing in the source regarding the false sentence). 
          
                
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