With 'Operation Sindoor', the Narendra Modi Government has set a new precedent in response to terrorism being cultivated on the soil of Pakistan. Across the last three days, several terror camps and critical military infrastructure was hit by the Indian Armed Forces.

Bhojpur region (46 seats) has long been a bastion of the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan, evident from its strong showings in the last two Assembly polls. However, NDA dominated these segments in recent Lok Sabha elections, and if the 2024 trend holds, NDA holds a clear edge this time.

From 2004–2014, India witnessed a spate of terror attacks while UPA responded meekly with dossiers and pressers. Terror struck cities and borders with impunity. Since 2014, India has stood firm against the perpetrators of terror even amid rising global and regional hostilities.

In Bihar’s 122 Phase 2 seats, the NDA has consistently done well, sweeping the 2019 and 2024 Lok Sabha polls, leading in over two-thirds of the segments, and maintaining its advantage in the 2020 Assembly elections by winning 66 seats against the MGB’s 49.

In the last three elections, both Lok Sabha and Assembly, the NDA has outperformed the MGB in 24 seats of Bihar’s Seemanchal region. In the 2020 Assembly polls, the NDA won 12 seats to MGB’s 7. As the region votes tomorrow, a repeat could significantly dent MGB’s prospects.

In Bihar’s 121 Phase 1 seats, the NDA swept both the 2019 and 2024 Lok Sabha elections. In the Assembly polls, however, the MGB edged ahead by one seat in 2020 and had a big lead in 2015 when JDU was part of it. A clear lead here for either alliance could prove decisive.

The Anga region of Bihar, with 23 assembly seats, has remained an NDA stronghold after the 2015 polls. The alliance won 16 of 23 seats in the 2020 Assembly election, led in all 23 segments in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, and retained its dominance in 2024, winning 21 of 23 seats.

Out of 122 seats voting tomorrow, the NDA had a decisive lead in these constituencies in 2020, winning 66 seats while the MGB managed 49. A repeat of that performance could put the NDA in a strong position for a comfortable victory again.

Bihar has registered a record voter turnout in Phase 1, with all 121 constituencies witnessing higher participation than in 2020. The overall turnout stands at 64.66%, a 7.45 percentage point increase from the 2020 election and the highest in the state’s electoral history.

As highlighted by PM Modi during his speech in Bihar, the NDA government has wiped out Red Terror from the state. The number of LWE-affected districts has reduced from 29 in 2013 to zero in 2025, paving the way for holistic and inclusive development across Bihar.

Bihar has voted in record numbers, with a turnout of 64.66% in Phase 1, the highest in three decades. While the Mahagathbandhan is interpreting it as a vote for change, the NDA is viewing it as continued support for its governance and welfare measures.

While Punjab leads the charts in stubble burning and records a far higher farm fire density than its neighbouring states, it continues to fuel the deadly smog over Delhi. Yet instead of accountability, the state points fingers at the Centre as the air turns toxic year after year.

Most of the 97 constituencies in Bihar where Muslim and Yadav voters make up over 25% of the electorate will vote in Phase 2. As the NDA pushes its model of governance and development, it will be interesting to see whether the RJD’s traditional base has hit its saturation point.

As voting concludes in Phase 1, the strike rate of leading parties across both alliances will play a decisive role in determining the election outcome. Of the 121 seats at stake, major parties face off in 87, with JDU and RJD contesting on 33 against each other, the highest.

MY factor remains one of Bihar’s strongest social coalitions, influencing outcomes far beyond Seemanchal. But with Muslim-Yadav voters forming over 20% of the electorate in 135 seats, RJD’s over-reliance has struggled against the NDA’s Sushasan pitch and welfare-driven outreach.

Seemanchal remains one of Bihar’s most politically sensitive regions, where Muslim voters play a decisive role. With the highest 72.4% share in Kochadhaman, they constitute over 20% of the electorate in 54 assembly seats, making demography a key factor in any political equation.

Bihar’s caste calculus defines its politics. The MGB draws strength from Yadavs and Muslims, who together form about 31% of the population, while Non-Yadav OBCs, EBCs, and General communities have largely backed the NDA, contributing to its long-standing dominance in the state.

Women voters played a crucial role in NDA's victory in Bihar in 2020, with NDA winning over 60% of the 119 seats where women outvoted men. In the 2025 elections also, the welfare measures taken by the NDA for women could prove decisive, leading them to another landslide victory.

Seemanchal has long mirrored Bihar’s sharp political divides, turning the region into a study of identity-driven politics where swing margins are rare and polarisation runs deep. Here, voting patterns tell a clear story that demography often decides democracy.

Phase 1 of the Bihar Assembly Election is set for a nail-biter and ready for poll on Nov 6th. In 2020, these same seats saw a razor-thin race as the NDA bagged 60 and the Mahagathbandhan won 61. With stakes even higher this time, Phase 1 could be a true test of ground strength.

As Donald Trump claimed Pakistan is conducting a nuclear test, India maintains a decisive edge, with superior nuclear range, dominance across sea & air, and a robust deterrent capability. Under the new doctrine, India is clear that it will not yield to any nuclear bluff.