Can we interpret on-chain prediction markets like Polymarket as a kind of “insurance” mechanism? . Yes, though with some important differences: . 1/ Shared DNA with Insurance. Risk Transfer: In insurance, you pay a premium to transfer risk (e.g., fire, flood) to the insurer. In.

前面讲的都是在不影响市场的前提下小资金量的策略，那如果我的资金量也已经达到了影响市场（交易对）了呢？那就需要考虑到“滑点”问题，也就是冲击成本（Impact Cost）。. 1/ 什么是冲击成本？. 当交易者下大单时，自己的交易会推动价格波动，造成“滑点”，这就是冲击成本。.

What do you want to know?.

大家似乎都很感兴趣仓位控制，是因为如果目标是长期稳健的分散投资，仓位管理几乎是必做功课。. 那我们再来聊一个公式：波动率目标仓位（Volatility Targeting Position Sizing）公式。它和凯利公式、风险回撤公式一样，属于仓位控制的核心思想，但更适合实盘资金管理和组合交易。. 1/ 核心概念.

RT @JarsyInc: $10M → $5B.$200M → $13B ARR. Anthropic and OpenAI’s ARR growth shows just how fast the AI sector is scaling. And luckily, Ja….

RT @JarsyInc: A big wave of crypto IPOs is hitting the markets. After years of regulatory uncertainty, the industry is finally entering a….

Why do people say that more liquidity increases the price of an asset?. Liquidity itself doesn’t determine the direction of an asset’s price (up or down), but it strongly affects how easily and at what cost prices can move. 1/ High Liquidity. Means lots of buyers and sellers,.

Let builders build - Uber Culture Number One. True for AI and Web3 today as well.

Is AI a bubble? . Yes and No. It is since we have not seen the full power of AI yet, but investors cannot wait for the goal rush. It is not since we have not seen the full power of AI yet, but builders cannot wait for the build rush.

感谢 @starzqeth 和 @rubywxt1 的对谈。希望一起共筑web3的未来。One World, One Chain. Always Day One Global !.

RT @JarsyInc: Crypto markets are heating up. And so is the race between U.S. CEXs. Different strengths, different strategies, and differe….

那中国呢？其实中国的社会经济结构和美国不同，但在房地产与区块链之间，也确实存在着两代人财富观念的差异。. 1/ 房地产：老一代的财富核心. 在过去 30 年里，中国的房地产是财富积累的绝对核心, 财富增值引擎。90 年代后期到 2015.

RT @JarsyInc: Thanks @WuBlockchain for interviewing Jarsy CEO @hqinjarsy . Jarsy’s vision is to bring the massive value that’s outside of….

那在币圈里，“炒币”和“合约”的风险和吸引力不同，是否意味着有最佳仓位分配选择？. 1/ 炒币（现货交易）. 定义：买入真实的币（BTC、ETH 等），放在交易所或钱包里，币价涨了就可以卖出赚钱，跌了就可能亏钱。. 风险：最多亏掉本金，但不会亏到负债。. 特点：.

我们来举一个风险回撤公式（Risk of Ruin, ROR）在币圈交易的实战例子，这样更直观。. 场景假设. 小王是一个做合约的加密交易员：. 本金： $10,000. 每笔交易风险：本金的 5%（也就是 $500 止损）. 交易策略历史数据：.胜率 p=45%.平均盈利 = 平均亏损 = 1:1. 1/ 第一步：计算优势 (Edge).

还有什��重要公式是交易员最需要知道的吗?. 今天我们讲一讲风险回撤公式（Risk of Ruin）， 它和之前谈到期望值公式、凯利公式一起，被称作交易的“生存三角”。. 1/ 核心定义. 风险回撤 (Risk of Ruin) 描述的是"在长期交易中，你的账户资本跌到无法继续交易（爆仓/心态崩溃）的概率"。.

Hyperliquid is the king and hard to copy. So we should long $HYPE right? . Well, it depends (I know, we all hate "it-depends") . 1/ Why Hyperliquid Could Stay King . Strong Network Effects, Superior Tech Stack, Brand & Narrative, and First-Mover Advantage in DeFi Perps 2.0. 2/.