holeyprofit
@holeyprofit
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I draw lines on charts that I think are useful. Shared for educational purposes. Not advice.
Joined March 2021
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I think the current conditions are optimal for a swing bear attempt now. Very little to risk with stops above the high entering here just under 5200 and potential for a big move.
If SPX rejects here, could see about 1,000 point drop.
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@Nerdtronics1
@michaeljburry
I'll translate. In 2002 we were in a clear bear market, but people still wanted to buy junk.
And that looks like now.
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"Alameda Research CEO Caroline Ellison’s personal account was in the hole by $1.31 billion in May 2022."
FTX apparently let a -1.3 billion account to continue to run positions. "An embarrassing mistake".
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I struggle to understand the thinking of anyone who's been in the market over 20 yrs and is currently swing bull. Quite literally, 100% of the times you've seen this in the last 50 yrs we crashed. We've never been off the high this long and not crashed.
Can anyone share logic?
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Ellison advocates for not using stops. Proclaiming them not to be the best method of risk protection.
They're not the worse, Caroline.
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@ByzGeneral
I can't believe all these assets with word "Moon" in them keep ending up like this.
If only there were signs.
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@MGuthner
@adamkhootrader
Awesome. 300% over the last 10 yrs with less DD than SPX. Beat the market risk adjusted.
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Jessie famously made millions in 1929 crash.
Far less famously, he also had a huge draw down in mid 1929 betting the crash was coming.
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@sqwidddd
@Nerdtronics1
@michaeljburry
>but I was raised on Fruit Loops and TikTok. Can you simplify this gibberish?
Sure. Delete TikTok.
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1/ The case for the impending $AAPL break.
Starting with the most simple thing everyone with any charting experience should see - we have a potential H&S like top here. Really flat neckline. These are ugly when they break.
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The most obvious sign we're in a really big bubble (At some point in it) is how many people have built huge brands/followings around speculative assets. Not products or services - literally just posting motivation quotes supporting the bull case for XXX
1/
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Icahn put 50 million into 4050 strike that expires on February 17th.
This is scarily similar to the puts I sold.
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Imagine spotting a clear bubble forming. Identifying 12 stocks that would go bankrupt. Being entirely correct about that - on every stock.
Betting $200 million short and covering that for a $600 million loss.
After that, all 12 companies go to zero.
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In Jessie Livermore's book he tells a story of in the late 1920s he was tasked with closing out a really large stock position for a client. One big enough to crash the market is that particular stock.
To achieve this without crashing the stock, Jessie did the following ... 1/
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5/
In summary, 100% of index crashes that dropped more than 75% had a bull trap that took longer than the initial break.
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Was involved in a car accident on Friday.
Was a passenger. Cyclist on other side of the road must have hit a pothole or something. Lost control and veered into traffic.
Car behind them swirved. Probably saving the cyclist's life but meaning he had to try to cut acorss a lane…
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@MGuthner
@adamkhootrader
Dunno why no one mentions this bit when they make posts like this about him.
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Free newsletter.
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I heard
@RJRCapital
mention on Spaces there's a theory going around the bear move is probably broken because in no previous bear market has the length of time the bull trap taken been more than the break.
I like that kinda stuff, here's what I found when looking into it.
1/
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Starting to feel confident the drop move is coming.
As always with big decisions I am spending 75% of my time thinking about ways I can be wrong and 25% planning for how to profit if I am right. Being confidently wrong sucks.
This is the most obvious bear setup I've seen.
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Implied move if this is a bull trap is massive.
We'd be looking at 2015 levels in the Nasdaq before any really serious support (And this might not be a low, it's just a good support).
This is the scale of what we can expect if we do break.
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Burry gets a lot of shit for a guy who's made billions by pretty much always being proven right in the end.
A lot of shit. From non-billionaires.
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When markets move fast, think slow.
Zoom out. Look for context.
This has not broken the downtrend yet. What we might have is a small chart trend about to slam into a bigger chart trend.
While we are close to breaking the downtrend is when you have best RR betting on it.
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A lot of bulls support their hypothsis of a low coming soon by pointing out everyone expects us lower and the market does not do as people expect - but what is truely the least expected thing is we've made a "Generational top". There's no generational buying op coming.
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But Jessie was done with the stock now. The call has been a means to get the market to buy from him. It was an exit ploy. The stock would crash, and it would not recover.
It seems this trick is just as effective in the market today as it was in the 1920s.
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Market crashes of over 50% in indices simply can not happen without the monthly charts first showing "Oversold" signals. Because a market becomes more volatile and the ATR increases in a down move, it's a requirement for it to become oversold before a crash can happen.
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@RetirementRight
With all due respect, we dropped 30% in 2020 and it was followed by the most enthusiastic retail buying I've ever seen.
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When a market breaks from a range based bearish butterfly it most often makes a strong trend leg to the 220 extensions of the rally/range of the butterfly.
Few understand this.
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Spent some time this weekend looking into the forgotten boom stocks of the
#DotCom
bubble.
This was the most successful IPO. It was up 1,000% during day one and closed up 600%.
What happened next is a sobering reminder of what remains when the mania is gone.
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I want to thank those of you who follow my work because you're interested in it and not because you want to see me fail. Especially those from the early Reddit days. I needed your support to get this to where we are now.
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Something big is coming. The market has most cautious people confused about short term PA and others far too overconfident. I'd expect in the not too far future someone is gonna get a smack.
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If today was not the low (And I don't think it was, but fuck what I think - I'm explaining the TA norms), this all goes really bad through the next low.
161 failure is a classic capitulation signal. I'm not using buzz words. It's observable and testable.
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Things to look for in a top.
Sharp rallies and follow through spikes.
Uncomfortable bears.
Range.
Victory laps from bulls.
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Reddit stalker dude showed up yesterday telling me I do not know what I'm talking about and $SPX is heading over 4,000.
Adding shorts.
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Have to laugh at people acting like Icahn is a failure because his 50M put closed OTM. Let's say we know it was speculative (And we don't), guy has 20 billion AUM. 50M is 0.25%.
Like losing $2.50 on a $1,000 account.
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1/ Have you noticed an increase in risk-seeking behavior during strong bull markets? It's largely due to the Peltzman Effect.
#PeltzmanEffect
#FinancialMarkets
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Last night while I was laying in bed it occurred to me how weird it is the guy in charge of a company at the centre of job displacement discussions is called "Altman".
I'm still trying to process the guy in charge of the crypto exchange being called "Bankman".
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Every time I look at the SPX rally last week I feel more bearish and I also feel more silly for it.
I can fully understand bulls perspectives here but I think it's gonna rug. I really do.
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@sqwidddd
@Nerdtronics1
@michaeljburry
Look for people who are looking up and straight ahead. They're usually not infected.
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I've not been on here much over the last week because I've been thinking about whether or not I want to keep doing this or not.
The way I see it I have a couple options. I can keep going. Try harder. Put more resources towards it. Make it work.
Or I can give my work to…
When I started this bear market warning/education in 2021 what I expected was to get a lot of shit in 2021.
Take that on the chin for a while but then success and reach would correlate.
I thought I'd define myself from the crowd by forecasting the move before it happened,…
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This is the first time I've been wrong so many times in a row and had more followers at the end of it.
Usually have a little follower crash around about this time.
Hi to everyone still here.
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3/3
Some realistic perspective on what can happen when you're "Kinda right".
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@CordovaTrades
"The good news is, your dog is fine. Bad new is it's going to be tricky to get it back".
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Going to short $DJI in the week ahead. Left this one alone for a while but have always kept it in my thoughts. If we're going to turn, the DJI is the most obvious setup.
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Best crypto trader I know told me they think the rally is over today. Last time they told me a rally was over was 68K. They re-entered long between 17K and the low.
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@RJRCapital
As a general rule, only buy puts when no-one else wants to. Ideally, you want someone to laugh when you buy them.
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It's not a made up story, this is what happened to Dunkenmiller when he shorted the Nasdaq bubble. He joined Soro's fund. Shorted Niekki at the high of the bubble. Had a great track record, and then lost $600M on a max possible won of $200M - and all the stocks went bust.
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3/
And only in a bubble will you gain large audiences for this. When you say, "We're so early" and get 100,000 positive interactions - you're not. Self-evidently not.
By the time you can be popular promoting an asset, the asset has usually gotten too popular for its own good
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I still feel liek this is setting up an epic sell.
Can't say my opinions have done much for me recently - but I still think it.
Opinions are not trade plans. It's needs to work now or I go back to the drawing board because my thesis has clearly failed.
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The tale of two big Nasdaq shorts in 1999.
Julian Robertson and Stanley Druckenmiller. Both men would short big in 1999, but they had very different outcomes.
1/
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If there's one thing we can be sure of, it's if a company if going under they'll come out the day before telling us how strong they are.
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I know it looks highly unlikely at this point, but if we see a mega sell off in Dec to close the year our SPX yearly chart would look exactly like the 6 month chart of the DJI heading into the depression.
What do you imagine market sentiment was like at the high of that wick?
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When I started this bear market warning/education in 2021 what I expected was to get a lot of shit in 2021.
Take that on the chin for a while but then success and reach would correlate.
I thought I'd define myself from the crowd by forecasting the move before it happened,…
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@stckpkr7000
@RJRCapital
You'll find oversold conditions before literally every crash in indices history.
It'd not be a crash if it did not first become oversold. Breaking the standard deviations is what makes a crash.
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Some people are inclined to follow the popular big bull forecasters of 2022 now, thinking them to be vindicated. Not to piss on anyone's bonfire, but in most cases from the original bull call these people are finally back to even. It's not insanely impressive.
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People's fear of missing out on a very wide and broad basis has now replaced their fear of fucking up.
I think this only happens at the end of a rally.
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I think
#SPX
is setting up the famous Acapulco cliff dive. The moment where everyone realised all at the same time, they all have to do the same thing.
The question then is not where we're going, it's how fast.
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It's best to not watch short term price action around inflection points when you have trades on. They tend to encourage emotional decisions. Deceptive action. Set alerts for breaks and walk away. It works better for most people.
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It's really incredible how much the market can change people's perception while going exactly sideways.
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If market goes up now, I am gonna be super wrong.
Just so we're all clear on that. I took a whole bunch of bear positions today betting on drops of over 15%.
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I appreciate you who follow me and do not try to make me feel bad when I'm wrong.
It never used to be like that. In 2021 during the meme/crypto crash forecasts sometimes instead of checking my positions I'd just see how many notifications I had. If I had a lot, I was losing.
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Two mottos I think a trader should live by;
It's good to be right, but it's important to know what makes you wrong.
It's better to lose your opinions than lose your money.
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A recurring problem I run into is people are interested in my bear analysis after they see me hit multiple bear swings in a row but they're not interested in it during the rallies - but it's during the rallies I am really making the winning trades. During the drop you see them.
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I'd encourage you to be objective if I am betting against something you're long on. There's no need to make enemies or fight. I am not betting against your asset! I'm betting on the chart patterns. After much research, it seems to have been the best thing to do previously.
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When I was 17 I was in homeless hostles and a bit of a "Troubled teen" (brat). When I got older I started working with troubled teens.
8 of them got arrested on fireworks night. In all different parts of the country. Been travelling from one police station to another all…
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Imagine how disappointing it'd be to have your long position in the RUT and watching it bleed out while other indices made local highs.
I think the RUT move is the real move.
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If you're moaning about "Market manipulation", you've already lost. The game is the game. Rules were defined long before you sat at the table. Your job is to learn the rules and play the game. Not demand the rules change to make the game easier for you.
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I've spent a large chunk of the weekend trying to make myself feel more bullish and I just can't.
Obviously have to write up bull trade plans to not be caught out if we rally again but if we get the right start to the week I'm going to be very aggressively bearish.
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In a bear market you find many people who were previously successful are not actually good traders or analysts. They were bold in the bull and the bull was kind.
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Dead cat 1.61 and slam to 1.27. That's my bet.
If this happens, you're going to see a lot of people who were bullish at these levels sheepish inside of a few trading days.
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I really don't get it. "Sure - every other time we spent 6 months off the high we went on to crash, but the FED is being bearish AF rifght now so I'll long".
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Today I got some very distressing news but after thinking long and hard about it, I'm going to keep posting anyway.
Farewell, Sherpa.
Our time together was so brief.
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Bear market starts now.
(May or may not age well, but I'm positioning for it).
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I've spent 15 yrs trading up and down trends daily.
Please ... please can people stop explaining to me the basic properties of an uptrend.
I do know them.
I have reasons for what I am doing.
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Today was a sore one for the bears. Hope everyone got through alright.
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A friend put 80% of their net worth (Which was a fair chunk of cash) in
#BTC
at 63K. I warned them I thought it would go to 15K at best. They fell out with me. Not spoke to me since. Today, they texted me to inform me I was wrong.
I replied "Congrats". And added BTC shorts.
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@RetirementRight
You have "Asset protection" in your bio - and literally never post anything about how to protect the positions taken.
We're still not above the price you told people to get leverage long or rekt.
You might wanna think this through.
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I said this in Dec of 2021, and I'll say it again.
This time, it might be the winner take it all.
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Preliminary forecast of what a market crash in the month ahead may look like. Will write up detailed version of this and explain some of my working.
Each red/blue line = 1 week trading.
1 week down.
1 week up.
Down, down and down - when the news hits, whatever it is.
#SPX
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I lose all respect for anyone who posts a forecast and deletes it when it's wrong. It's poor form in so many ways.
Chiefly, if they really think their stuff is worth knowing they should WANT you to understand how to deal with losing trades. It's more important than the winners.
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Anyone who's followed me a while will know I've said this since mid 2021 - but, IMO, long term investors should exit. I do not think there's a lot more time for the warning now.
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Mark my words, all the market has to do is go sideways for 2 weeks to 2 months after hitting 3400 and by the time we're next there, we'll have flushed out all the new bears. Nothing has to happen; time just has to pass.
It's a recurring trick, but it never gets old.
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I think right now we have such a good confluence of bear signals that the bear move should be bet on because even if it ends up being wrong it made a lot of sense.
Despite this, few are aggressively talking short positioning and many are talking long.
It's not "Too obvious".
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What if the 2008 model is good ... but we're in 2007?
A huge gripe I've always had with the 2008 model ran 1:1 against current markets is 2007 has a clear headfake and 2021 had a more defined simple top.
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@moregabagool
@RetirementRight
Algos are optimised towards engagement. Drama causes engagement. Swan plays on drama.
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I think this was a break and we're completing the bull trap now.
Adding to all my shorts with stops above local highs.
If we are switching to a bear market here it should become obvious soon.
$SPX
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Feels like big move coming. Market ruthlessly kicking longs and shorts out on both sides. Usually a prelude to a big move.
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@endless_frank
I kinda feel at this point anyone who's read 10 of your tweets has essentially read them all.
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