Do voters just copy how-to-vote preference recommendations? Clearly not if you look at available data. Here's some Christmas reading with my latest post on HTVs and preferences based on data from the 2022 South Australian election. https://t.co/gFFsiWrqWV

Anyone who has ever handed out HTVs at a pre-poll booth knows that it isn't the Plymouth Brethren behaving badly. Massive beat-up from the left.

@AntonyGreenElec As someone who hands out HTVs I'll tell you only half, maybe fewer, take one. Then, just because they take it, doesn't mean they'll follow it. Preferences only matter for candidates who come 3rd or worse. They're probably not manning every booth. I live in Fraser. No Lib all day.

@mumbletwits Most is also not valid. I presume most means more than half and the available evidence does not suggest that. HTVs can influence but not deterministic.