my future baseball happiness may hinge on the Braves’ next manager knowing that xwOBA is a strongly predictive offensive metric, not a spell from Harry Potter

his hardest hit ball since 2023, btw (would’ve tied for his hardest hit ball that year) pretty good omen for a guy coming off shoulder surgery

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that groundout was the hardest-hit ball HSK has had so far this season (107.2 mph)

2026 OD lineup is hopefully something like Acuña (RF) Baldwin (DH/C) Riley (3B) Olson (1B) Profar (LF) Harris II (CF) Murphy (C/DH) Albies (2B) Kim (SS) Rotation if healthy: Strider, Sale, Schwellenbach, prob Lopez, prob Waldrep? Need a guy here. Bullpens are easy to build.

Overall, pretty excited. It's the Braves' first acquisition of an Asian-born player since Kenshin Kawakami? It would be cool for the team to develop a good reputation in that market. And when healthy, Kim is an above-average SS, which I just assumed they couldn't get next yr!

Third, the player profile. Kim isn't a classic 2018-24 Braves offensive type. From 2022 to 2024, he achieved average-ish offensive performance by doing Profar-ish stuff - walking (cool), making a lot of contact (bleh), and not hitting the ball all that hard.

Second, the contract. AA never gives out player options, since they give the player all the upside. AA also seldom deals with Boras. And yet! $16M is a perfectly fine one-year gamble, esp. if you think he'll be better with a full, unimpeded offseason in a contract year.

First, the market. It's hard to find a good SS, and the next few FA classes are weak. In 2026, Bichette and nobody else. In 2027, Crawford (and HSK?) and nobody else. In 2028, Pena and nobody else. Short of giving Bichette $200M, HSK is the best available in the near future.

The Ha-seong Kim waiver claim is maybe the most interesting in-season acquisition the Braves have done in the Anthopoulos era. I'll try to put them down on Substack soon. But in the meantime, here's a thread summarizing my immediate thoughts:

It’s tempting to pin this on Tim Hyers, but just as the last approach was FO-driven (Seitzer predated it!), this one probably was too. Some of it is personnel (Allen and Alvarez are slappy hitters by nature, Profar to a lesser extent) but some is certainly what they’re teaching.

Put in simpler terms, the 2019-24 Braves were all about hitting the ball as hard as possible, as often as possible. The 2025 Braves have attempted to walk more (sure) and to make more contact (bleh) and it’s made their power inputs and outputs ordinary.

maybe an even more interesting question than “will the Braves have a new manager in 2026?” is “will the Braves revert to their 2019-2024 offensive approach in 2026?” 2019-2024, ATL was consistently top of the league in Z-swing and xwOBACON, bottom in Z-con. Not in 2025. (1/3)

Maybe Murphy is too light a return for Duran, idk. But Boston has a glut of outfielders, the Braves have two really good catchers, and it feels like something could get done along these lines.

Why BOS would want Murphy: Carlos Narvaez has been a revelation for the Red Sox at catcher but he’s a 26 year old rookie who’s had a 57 wRC+ since the start of July. Connor Wong is atrocious. Boston could use a high-end starting catcher.

Why ATL would want Duran: fast, hits the ball very hard, can play the corners or moonlight in CF. Not an incredible defender but better than Profar or Acuña, who can take turns with Baldwin DHing. Sort of a strong personality but lots of vets in the clubhouse.

half-baked thought: I’m anti-trading Sean Murphy for a few reasons (very good overall player, clearly a strong mentor, no such thing as too many catchers, don’t trade good players signed to long-term deals). I’m pondering a Murphy for Jarren Duran swap works, though.

if “Shane Bieber, ineligible for the QO because he was traded midseason” doesn’t scream “Braves blue square for 1/$30M on November 29th,” idk what does

109.7 off the bat the Braves need a backup DH option next year (for days when Baldwin is catching and/or Murphy is catching and Baldwin needs a full day off). it could be Profar and you play Eli White in LF. It could also maybe be McCabe?

the Cowboys’ official account tweeted out a livestream in which the hosts criticized the trade’s timing and the pick return and expressed concerns that the Parsons trade would be an “extinction-level event” for the team Jerry Jones truly runs the greatest show in sports

jurickson profar might be cracked entering today’s game (2HR, 3BB so far), he’s at a .400 xwOBA over his last 100 PAs