Gautam Shah
@gshah26
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Founder, Goldilocks Premium Research | CMT, CFTe, MSTA (Dist.)| Three-time winner at the Global Technical Analyst Awards, London | Support : +91 98300 35900
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Joined December 2009
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A hattrick ! Goldilocks Premium Research does it again. We win the coveted “Best Emerging Markets Research” award for 2022 at the Technical Analyst Awards, London. The only Indian research firm yet again competing with the best in the industry world-wide !
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Had the pleasure of meeting Rakeshji for the first time at the Zee Business Analyst Awards in 2010 where I was awarded India’s Best Equities Technical Analyst. We “exchanged” cards, he humbly checked markets’ health and is one person who has respected timing & technicals.
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BIG NEWS !!! Delighted to share that Goldilocks Premium Research has won again at the Global Technical Analyst Awards ‘21 as the “Best Specialist Research”. The only Indian firm with such a recognition. Thank you for your support & belief - Team Goldilocks
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Extremely disappointed having watched
#AnimalMovie
on day 1. In the name of entertainment, crap is being showcased and fed onto society and the younger generation. The bar on violence, profanity etc etc has been raised on the “big screen” and it’s nothing to be proud of.
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Emotional day for the family. Dropping my son off for full time training at an academy in Bangalore to pursue his dream of becoming a pro golfer. Giving him a platform and wings to fly despite a heavy heart.
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Overjoyed to share the BIG news. Goldilocks Premium Research has been chosen as a finalist at the Global Technical Analyst Awards 2020 in four categories (including “Technical Analyst of the Year”). This global recognition is a dream come true. Elated to represent my country 🇮🇳
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Just realised I complete 18 years of appearing on business tv today. The first interview with Udayan and Mitali (CNBC) this very day in 2005. Many ups & downs but an incredible journey. Happy to have followed the path of ethics & never run away from calling a spade a spade 🙏
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Lovely time in Dubai. Got picked up by a clients’ Rolls Royce (!!) and headed onto a buzzing Italian eatery at the DIFC. Larger than life conversations. Sometimes earning trust and respect is far greater than earning the greenback.
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Entered a mall after months to pick up a coffee
@TheCoffeeBean
. The lady who did the thermal check at the entrance just seemed totally drained out. Picked up a “Mocha” for her as well and surprised her on the way out. She had a smile. Money can buy happiness, sometimes.
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After spending 15 long years at JM I served my last day today with a heavy heart. It’s been a long & fruitful journey. Joined as a trainee, signing off as director. Taking the plunge to conquer greater heights. Going the entrepreneurial way. Need all your support 🙏
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Happy to share that Goldilocks Premium Research has moved to a new spacious office in the heart of Kolkata. A dream that we collectively worked towards. We thank our subscribers, followers and well wishers for the support always. Some pictures from the Inauguration
#YouGrowWeGrow
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If Nifty was a cricket team and the sectors it’s players, RIL and IT opened the innings in power play (April), Pharma at No.3 gave the stability making it easy for Metals/Auto to perform at 4 and 5. Now Banking comes in at No.6 (Dhoni Style) helping the team achieve its goal 😄
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Thankfully “nepotism” does not work at the markets. You could come from a generation of master traders/investors but the market treats you as a rookie and does not give out “freebies” !
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Blown away by this quote (so much depth and “free” valuable advise) by the man who fought all odds to reach where he is today. Such an inspiration. He is ma man !!
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During my MBA days used to visit a institute on Park Street and passed by Kolkata’s pride “Flury’s” everyday not having the pocket to step in and have breakfast (the iconic beans on toast !). Today I host many of my clients here and we end up fighting over the bill.God is kind 🙏
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Goldilocks Premium Research wins big at the Global Technical Analyst Awards ‘20 declared in London in three categories :
1. Technical Analyst Of The Year
2. Best Specialist Research
3. Best Emerging Market Research
A short video message. Thank you 🙏
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Couple of decades back when I chose this difficult profession of being a “Technical Analyst”, always wanted to cater to the global audience someday. Happy and grateful that today was the day. Just an incredible fulfilling feeling.
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Just remember, support levels work beautifully in bull markets and resistance work wonderfully in bear markets. Don’t try the other way around.
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How immaculately RIL lead the market from 7500-9500, the IT index from 9500-11000 and Banking from 11000-12500. Just reminds me of the 4x100 relay at the Olympics.
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TV has truly become the Idiot box. I worry about the kids/generation ahead. News channels have become crimes scenes, Soap operas are spreading negativity, digital content has no censorship. Not sure how society can prosper in such an environment.
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Every passing day it’s becoming more and more apparent that Derivatives, AI and Algos are killing financial markets. They are equal tools of mass destruction. I as a market participant am worried. Can’t read today’s markets with the eye/books of 80’s, 90’s or early 2000’s.
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In the early 2000’s we technicians used to forcibly add a fundamental piece to our reports to make the “case stronger”. Today, fundamental guys are adding a technical piece to make their case stronger. Love the transition ! 😀
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In my 20 years of tracking markets have not seen such extreme readings on many technical parameters together. Sadly, can’t go to history to understand this move. This move is history being made.
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A year back many told me - Let the world come to an end but the few stocks that were “running” the large-caps would never underperform. Nifty is up 25% from the lows and Bajaj Finance is at 52 week lows. Another example how buy and hold investing has gone for a toss.
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Got picked up by a client’s
#Porsche
at a hotel in Delhi. Escorted to a 2 acre farmhouse. Sumptuous multi-course meal, wonderful conversation on life & markets (in that order). The wealthy are beyond wealth. The respect and love from subscribers is far more valuable than business
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I am absolutely amazed with the no of seminars, webinar’s, paid training’s happening these days. It defies logic. If I had the holy grail setup, I wouldn’t share it (sorry, being human) and if I didn’t have it I wouldn’t fool people. So better talk less, do more and earn respect
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Have seen so many reports saying that since “retail participation is at a high, markets should fall”. Remember, retail is not your average foolish guy anymore. He is smart and in it for the long term (mostly thanks to SIP etc). Not advisable to take a contra stance based on this.
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I strongly believe the time has come when Indian equities will do well, Gold will do well, Indian rupee will do well, real estate will do well. All at the same time ! This might be unheard off but it’s coming.
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Just incredible that Thailand has a total of 3500 covid cases. A densely populated tourism capital that went thru Chinese New Year in Feb. Guess attitude, discipline, way of life, govt efficiency and medical infrastructure played a vital role. We have a lot to learn and adapt.
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So friends in my previous job for 15 years my lunch (every day !) was at this lovely South Indian joint in Kolkata. It shut shop since the pandemic and finally managed to open up recently. Just got home delivered. Sometimes, a little money can buy big happiness
#jyotivihar
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Let me put this out today without a bias and at the cost of being proven totally wrong in 24 hrs. The level of 9000 on a closing basis is the most important support for this bear market. If a reversal has to happen it’s here and now. I am hopeful. If it doesn’t, I’ll be dejected.
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It was in the year 2007 when the Sensex hit 20000 and it was hugely celebrated. Lovely memories. It did bring in a lot of euphoria and then 2008 happened ! That market was very “foreign liquidity” driven and we were closely connected with the world. Today is different !
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At some point the stock markets will pay the price of global developments. History, seasonality, fake optimism etc etc will be thrown out of the window.
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Today’s Indian stock market cannot be understood using the lens of history. The dynamite 16k crore number
#sip
has changed the landscape and the charts too seem to be adjusting to the same. This is a huge tailwind in a world with numerous headwinds currently. The battle is on !
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Just nobody on social media talks about the 100’s of “failed breakouts” and “traps” on the charts. All brushed under the carpet with an attitude of “moving on”.
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A few hundred Covid cases (2% of global cases) last March and market fell like no tomorrow. Currently, India contributing more than 40% of global cases and Nifty is finding it difficult to loose 300 points. Stock market scenarios are always “out of syllabus”. Improvise.
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As Chartists we might not understand complex business models of say Pharma or chemical companies but make no mistake we can identify stocks as early as the savvyiest insiders. That’s the beauty of analysing “price”. It makes complex things easy.
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As the Nifty hits 13k and the Dow hits 30k, remember this is the very year when we began the day fearing a lower freeze every single day and the world was bottomless. Pretty much the opposite sentiment currently. Do not get carried away. This is exactly what we call “melt-up”.
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I know its late but finally managed to catch the
#Scam1992
. Just blown away with what
@pratikg80
has portrayed. Was numb after the last scene. So many thoughts to deal with. The right, the wrong. The relevance of money and how markets have evolved.
@mehtahansal
hats off !
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Every time I move out of the house for a drive and look at the surroundings (sorry state of affairs) it makes me question the Nifty at 11200. “Unfortunately” logic and common sense takes over. Once I am back home and sit on the charts, logic is thrown out of the window.
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Was at a Starbucks queue behind a lady in her 70’s. She asked for a simple coffee and the employee offered her all the pricey exotic options. Intervened. She settled with Mocha. Will
@StarbucksIndia
pls stop push-selling. Happening repeatedly
#ethics
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On this auspicious day I am super excited to announce the launch of India’s most premium & comprehensive technical research service spearheaded by Gautam Shah that will change the landscape of advisory. Details to follow. COMING SOON !!! Happy Diwali 🙏💥
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For a long time now a “black swan” is considered as an unpredictable event against the bulls.I think we are very soon staring at a “predictable black swan” against the bears.The world will not end.A single piece of news in favour of humanity will overshadow all that’s happened 🤞
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Just received Tirupati laddu’s from a Goldilocks subscriber. It’s the love and support that keeps us going. No better feeling.
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Respected
@ianuragthakur
, please reward our winners/athletes really well. (government should surpass its personal best !). Let the message go out to every parent in the country that sport can be a highly rewarding career option in monetary terms too. The time is now 🙏
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Everyday in the morning I go to the terrace to feed the pigeons (feels great). We now have a “relationship” going. A certain time has got fixed. I could be late but come what may “they” are never late & they don’t even have a watch. For humans, being on time is such a diff thing.
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I am questioning my inked finger of 2014. Never thought I will. 😔
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BIG news to share !! Have been invited to speak at the CMT’s 50th Symposium in New York in the last week of April ‘23. The greats in the field of technical analysis are gathering at this prestigious event. A line-up like no other. Excited !! 🇮🇳Link -
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Friends, in a few hours from now the results for the Global Technical Analyst Awards 2021 will be announced in London. Goldilocks is running as a contender in 3 categories including “Technical Analyst Of The Year”. Fingers crossed 🤞 as the competition is fierce 🇮🇳
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Happy to be invited for my first ever interaction with CNBC International this Monday (7th Feb) at 6:10 AM (IST). Will be talking about global equities for a very different audience. Excited with some nerves 😬!
@SquawkCNBC
@CNBC
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News to share - Had joined JM many many years back at a trainee level and today I get promoted to the Director rank. Happy that as a market technician have been able to reach here. Thanks to all who supported me in this journey. My work is my hobby, my passion.
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Nothing better than being in the company of mountains. They bring a sense of calmness, a feeling of contentment and a life of fulfilment.
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Every day I go to this park for a morning walk and there are about 12 very senior citizen ladies quietly sitting there anticipating some grants from the walkers. So today took the initiative of donating “shawls” to them and it takes care of winter. We all have ideas, go execute.
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Remember, a shakeout is a very integral part of a breakout. The market is “mean”. It ensures that you don’t get into the bus before the journey (trend) begins.
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Friends, big big news to share. Coming up with a video update in sometime. This is super special !
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Recently stayed at the Taj Rishikesh for a family event. Beautiful property alongside the Ganges and built over acres. It’s quite premium/pricey and yet the hotel ran on nearly 100% occupancy. Just wonder if this can be extrapolated on the Indian Hotels stock !
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I have heard and met many people in the business who say “I have been in this market for many decades, I have seen it all”. Even for them this large-cap/mid-cap disconnect or polarisation over such a long period is a new animal. When we get smart, the market gets smarter !
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Have you ever watched the “long jump” segment at the Olympics. So much to relate to from mkts perspective. The jumper first takes a few steps back (most imp), gets into a rhythm, builds momentum and then takes the leap. Uptrends do exactly that. Think !!!
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Remember, the market knows best about Covid. Better than scientists, economists, politicians etc. The market got it right on the way down in 2020 and on the way up in 2021. I am frantically waiting to see the market get it right again with this wave 🤞
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Friends, as I study more sectors I realise that the pharma index which has been in a bear mkt for 3 years could have bottomed out. The index lost 50% (insane) in this period. Foundation laid for a large recovery over the next many weeks/months.
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Saddened to know about the passing away of Mr. Welles Wilder (the father of RSI and many other indicators). Never has anyone’s work influenced me more. Made a living out of his teachings. Indebted forever. Will carry on the legacy in my own small way. Rest in peace Sir 🙏
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Honestly, have learned on the job this 2020. Could not have imagined at 12k that 7500 would come and never imagined at 7500 that 11k would come this fast. In both ways we had the direction right but the extent was out of the box. Will use this as a template for the years ahead.
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The market loves to fool around. It’s intention was always to break the Budget day low but it first got past the Budget day high, laid the trap, brought in the hope/excitement and today is at 17300. The market has many ways to do simple things.
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In my 20 years of tracking markets the word “bottomless” has been associated many times in bear trends but for the first time the word “topless” is the best way to describe this bull trend. The bulls kept the best for the last and its 2020 !
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I clearly remember the environment around the 2007 top. When consensus stopped searching for a top is when the market hit the ceiling. A leading brokerage report was titled “Road to 50000” and everyone lapped it up. Sometimes “excel sheets” are the trigger 😉
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A bull market does not end/top-out till the most joked about stock and a “painful hold” does not move big enough to sparkle the screen. History is a testimony. ITC might just fit the bill here (many more too). You have your clue !!
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Quite a special day today. 17 years back on this very day I had my first appearance on CNBC. It’s been quite a journey. So many cycles, the ups & downs. Have been true to the art form of technical analysis and always spoke my mind without vested interests.
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Friends, I think we could be entering a very exciting phase at the markets. Nifty has seen a orderly correction and is well placed. Mid-cap index has done all the hard work of laying the foundation. At the doors of a breakout. If all goes as per plan, many of you will be happy.
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Two back to back tournament wins for my son on the junior golfing circuit with scores of 3 under and 1 under at the prestigious Emirates Golf Club and the scenic Al Hamra Golf Club. No better feeling than to follow him in these experiences.
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Technical analysis is a work of art. However in today’s world it is sold, marketed & projected as a science. If it was a science every bull/bear market would look the same.
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The wait ends and the journey begins !!! Announcing the official launch of Goldilocks Premium Research. An advisory initiative on the pillars of Honesty, Sincerity & Clarity. Please visit the website for product details. Subscriptions open now !!!
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Today’s move at the markets was almost like the “back benchers” (small-caps) ruling the class while the teacher (Nifty) was called to the principal room (SEBI) 😄
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The best way to understand insider is charts, the best way to understand real fundamentals is charts, the best way to understand collective wisdom of people is charts, the best way to understand unforeseen developments is charts. It’s like staying ahead without knowing a thing.
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Nifty at 7500 hurt bigtime. However, Nifty at the doors of 12k is equally hurtful, for sure. It’s just been an insane rollercoaster ride between saving capital and opportunity cost. Markets never follow rules !
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The truth is, there is always an excuse for everything that happens at the markets and the beauty is, the charts catch that excuse well before it starts getting prominence. Some things don’t change.
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Unwritten rule in bull markets - Never make fun of the bears. As they say - the walls have ears.
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Best friends !! We do have our disagreements from time to time 😉
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How sure how the animals at the zoo, birds on the trees, dogs at the signal, squirrels at the park etc must be feeling today. They must all be singing together “what a wonderful world” !
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The best and maybe only way to describe the current strength is to believe that the market has a foresight and it has seen the “curve turn”. If the market can bottom out on the 1st day of lockdown (Mar ‘20) it could also top out the day covid tops out. It’s complex but logical !
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I am very interested to monitor what Gold does from here. It’s probably the 4th attempt to sustain above 2000$ and get to life highs. This attempt looks the strongest. There has been a lot of basing, consolidation, hard work before this move. Could be special !
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So after a near 1000-pt run if the market is “finding it difficult” to loose even 200 points it has to be read positively. Strong bull trends tend to “bore” during consolidation phases. We must welcome it.
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Almost all market indices are misleading in nature as they are skewed towards a few stocks. Nifty (3 stocks 30%) , BN (The obvious), Pharma (2 stocks 45%), Auto (2 stocks 40%), FMCG (2 stocks 55%), C Goods (Worse) and so on. I am starting to like the NSE 500 and using it more.
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Extremely happy to see the IPL starting in a couple of days. Much needed. Should help shift focus from news that divides us to a game that unites us.
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When I started off in this field my teachers just exposed me to the various tools of technical analysis and how they could be used in diff. market environments. They never shared profit screenshots or rockets or talked about the holy grail indicator. Choose your teacher wisely.
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I was very lucky to analyse and live the 2003-2007 bull market. Equally spectacular. The period that comes closest to current market behaviour (just price action) is 2003. Budding technicians, study that period to understand today.
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Markets are supposed to reflect the happenings in the economy and society. With all that is happening in the US currently (quite disturbing scenes) it’s amazing that the Dow opens gap-up. This reminds me - “Enjoy the music but stay close to the door”.
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Fair to say that the entire bear market thesis has gone for a toss. Ppl kept looking at history (2008,00,87,1929) to project the next move but the market had different plans. The point is (and we made earlier), the market knew we were looking at history and it does not oblige.
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Today something interesting happened. We added our first subscriber from “Jamaica”. When the team asked “are you sure you want to go ahead as the time zones don’t match” he said “once I receive your message I’ll punch the trade & go back to sleep”. Exactly how it should be done !
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For the last couple of years we were marketed that “the mother of all bull markets is coming”. However very quietly the “mother of all bear markets” has played out in 90% of the market. One glance thru 1500 stocks depicts a very sorry state of affairs. Did someone say LTCG 😔
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