Ukrainian vs. Russian leadership

Here is a list of Western national elections held in 2024 (after the global inflation crisis). Note what happened to incumbent popular support. UK: Tories (-46%) Belgium: Open Vld (-36%) Croatia: HDZ (-8%) France: LREM (-36%) Lithuania: TS–LKD (-30%) US: Harris (Democrats) (-7%)

Basically, a democracy is collapsing if gov't institutions (the bureaucracy, courts, police, electoral commissions) are actively working to get the ruling party elected. These actions are generally sufficiently deniable that it's hard to definitively prove fraud is taking place.

For example, gov't workers are pressured to attend rallies and to vote for the ruling party. Local elites are bribed to turn out voters in their regions. It's particularly effective in poorer areas. The courts make an example of a few opposition politicians and journalists. Etc.

In most cases, democratic backsliding doesn't mean going from free and fair elections to brazen ballot stuffing and large-scale arrests of opposition figures. Instead, the ruling party increasingly uses government resources and institutions to give itself unfair advantages.

Cancelling the votes in one precinct isn't much of a solution when GD outperformed its average 2020 Marneuli results by at least 10% in 62 out of the 64 Marneuli precincts that reported their results so far.

Incidentally, this also happened in Marneuli:

In 2020, the town of Marneuli (also in Kvemo Kartli region) gave the ruling GD party 50% of the vote. This time around, GD received 79%. In 5 of the town's precincts, GD received over 90% of the vote.

In 2020, the towns of Bolnisi, Dmanisi, Tsalka, and Tetritskaro (all in Kvemo Kartli region) gave the ruling GD party 57% of the vote. This time around, the towns provided GD with 84%, 73%, 72%, and 70% of the vote. Meanwhile, in Tbilisi districts, GD did no better than in 2020.

There are multiple election precincts in Georgia where the ruling GD obtained more than 90% of the vote (in some cases, significantly more than 90%). A quick search suggests there were far fewer such lopsided results in 2020. For example:

A true Russian solution. Birth rate too low? Make it illegal to talk about not having kids.

Not sure how many times people need to be warned, but if you're a citizen of a Western country, do not under any circumstances travel to Russia.

6. Realistically, the only ways to turn the Russian public against Putin is for A) Russia to unambiguously lose the war (no one likes losing) and/or B) for a total economic collapse. Neither is likely to happen, at least for the foreseeable future.

5. People point to German or Japanese post-WWII behavior as examples of people atoning for their country's behavior. But that atonement required a decade-long occupation of Germany and is still lacking in many ways in Japan.

4. The rally-around-the-flag increases public support for the government in times of crises (at least in the short-term). Moderate economic damage to Russia and highly visible (but low-casualty) attacks against Russia-proper thus increase support for the war.

3. Hypocrisy is the norm in international relations ( https://t.co/RIgSyrvwUW). That makes it easy for people already affected by nationalism and a biased media to discount foreign criticism of their country's actions (e.g., why aren't Russia's critics also going after Israel?).

2. Public opinion, at least in the short-term, can be influenced by a country's media landscape. The cheerleading by most American media organizations for the Iraq War no doubt contributed to public support for that war. Needless to say, the Russian media is even more one-sided.

Moving on to B. 1. Nationalism is a heck of a drug. There was strong public support for Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in nearby countries. ( https://t.co/09az7GPERH), despite the war clearly being illegal and costly. Most Serbs still believe their country's wars were justified. Etc.

3. Support for the war is weak. The public has been browbeaten into political apathy. Most support the war because that's the view they believe they're supposed to hold. If the Russian government reversed course tomorrow, most of the war-supporters would immediately oppose it.

2. A lot of the people who opposed the war fled Russia. Statistics are somewhat contradictory, but as many as a million Russians fled the country since the war begun (though some have since returned). Presumably, they're more likely to oppose the war than the Russians who stayed.

Let's start with A. 1. Expressing opposition to the war gets one jailed. Given extensive surveillance by Russia's authorities and numerous stories of neighbors ratting out neighbors, there's every reason to suspect many aren't giving their real opinion when asked about the war.