Grant
@glbeaty
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Fintwit account of a software dev and race car driver turned smol long / short fund manager. Looking for IRR wherever it can be found. I mostly tweet bad ideas.
Joined May 2015
The narrative will be human alpha will soon be impossible. Buy the AI majors now, and own a share of the singularity and nigh-infinite wealth. The last and greatest of all FOMO waves. I've been waiting for this for years. The story might even come true.
This market is freaking Pascal's wager. "The wager is a pragmatic decision-making argument that compares the potential infinite gain of believing in God with the finite losses of non-belief, versus the finite gains and potentially infinite losses of betting against God's
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This has to be one of the top reasons most people suck at investing. I'm not just referring to long selection, or betting on recessions that never happen. Most of my shorts are bets on creative destruction and the world improving.
Interesting paradox: Most people think the world is getting worse, but that their own life will get better. This doublethink is likely adaptive; negativity bias toward our environment keeps us vigilant, while optimism bias toward our situation keeps us going.
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So this was probably insider trading. https://t.co/fXXTZgelno
$BE wow: 10k Nov $140 calls written today, so far OTM. Hard to fit the level onto the chart
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$SBLK seems like an obvious long here. If these tariffs do have long-term impact (đ), bulker ton-miles will benefit. (they won't; at worst they'll exist long enough to stretch supply chains) Maybe $DAC too? I haven't looked at their charters vs. the coming containership pain.
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To put it another way, $BE's current total power deployed is about 1.2 GW. So they just got 75% of their lifetime product demand from a single order. This is going over $100. Thank you for your attention in this matter.
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$MOH $UNH $ELV $HUM $CNC https://t.co/cpJizf7Sq0
Using data from more than 100 million Americans, we now have an update. Obesity didn't just fall in 2023, it kept falling through 2024. The obesity crisis may really, finally be ending.
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To put this 900 MW $BE order in perspective, their current manufacturing capacity / year is 1 GW. Their best quarter yet was 2024 Q4, where they likely shipped 150 MW. Larger scale apparently helped gross margins hit 46% that quarter. This is a major validation of the thesis.
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Argentine stocks crashed in April (with everything else after Tariff Day), then peaked in May. The admin is right to shore up confidence in Argentina. We all benefit if it flourishes, and lose if it becomes another Venezuela. Doesn't mean corruption isn't an additional motive.
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This is plainly false. Milei's economy suffered at the start, not now. March, May, & June 2025 saw higher economic activity than those months in any year prior. The major threat to the Argentine economy is the possible return of Peronism & the loss of confidence that's causing.
9. In April, as the Argentine economy began to falter, Bessent traveled to Argentina to meet with Milei. Right behind Bessent, in a black private jet, was Citrone. He met with Milei just before Bessent.
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2025 seems like the start of a cyberpunk plotline where the megacorps take over not because they wanted to, but because democracy grew too stupid to effectively govern.
.@DrOz on Trumpâs Tylenol move: âHistoric. A passionate president said enough is enough. Autism devastates families â and he refused to wait another day to act for mothers and children.â
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As $KVUE continues to drop, I realize I need to get better on betting on totally wrong, stupid, yet predictable outcomes. I still think a big lawsuit is coming that could drop the stock a lot (and possibly benefit RFK on contingency), but I should have bought puts last week.
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If RFK does announce this and we get a huge lawsuit against $KVUE, it seems like such an easy thing to defend. With the usual caveat that the wrong jury could still bankrupt the company. The price will have to drop a lot before I'm interested in longing it.
The HHS may be announcing that Tylenol use during pregnancy causes autism tomorrow. The only problem with doing that is that we have strong causal evidence that Tylenol does not cause autism. Exposed siblings are no more likely to be autistic than the unexposed.
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The vote on Musk's pay package is Nov 6th, so I expect a lot of pumps leading up to that.
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He bought $1B worth of shares, at ~$390. Is it really going to drop below that near-term? $TSLA now seems like an asymmetric hedge against the spec mania increasing.
MUSK REPORTS PURCHASE OF OVER 2.5M TESLA SHARES: FILING
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Shale production has been in a holding pattern for 2 years, and I've done well buying dips in $WTI. The trouble with the long-term bull thesis is shale well total recovery is < 10%. That's a ton of room for technology to improve productivity and extend the life of the Permian.
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When a bullet hits a body most of the energy passes through it. Kirk was jolted. Seems clear the bullet hit him in his heart, shattered or ricocheted on body armor, then hit his neck. As soon as he lowered the mic, there was a clear shot. The shooter at least had some practice.
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A popular rightist narrative on this site is he was shot because he was converting young people to the right. Maybe, but it doesn't take a genius to see killing him like this, in an open debate, is not a way to reverse that trend! The guy is now a martyr for leftist intolerance.
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Still a low-confidence prediction. When Trump was getting shot at I looked at past presidential assassins, & it seemed most motives were just insane (e.g. Wild Bill's killing). Could easily be the case here. I am grateful for a job that gets me rich without having to be famous!
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Prediction: Charlie Kirk's shooting was gun-control motivated. A lefty shooting him for another reason seems more likely to backfire, & he was shot while debating gun control. He's said inflammatory things about guns, & there are plenty of gun victims out there to create motive.
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