Gigi Alcaraz
@gigiialc
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building @mirapredictions • growing @kalshigirls 🔮 optimistic and fashionable👩🏼💻 prev research @ mit | bu grad
nyc | spain
Joined September 2021
If culture markets are to become big they need to solve the liquidity problem Sports work not because people care more, but because attention converges at the same time with a clear outcome
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I saw an X review on Marty Supreme when it was priced at 7%. Since then, it’s consistently traded closer to 10%. Social media sentiment in culture markets is so important
Marty Supreme is trading at 7% to win Best Picture on Kalshi and I think it’s underpriced because public buzz has not been priced in👀
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Politicians using prediction markets 👀
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Classic 2am decision: Sleep and get proper rest or ship a few more things??
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How to come up with good prediction market questions: > do people disagree on the outcome > will enough people care AT THE SAME TIME > will there be new information, news that keeps the price moving > is there an undeniable way this resolves?
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This is insane
“Some people have already started to realize that using prediction markets can be cheaper than conventional fire, flood, and hurricane insurance.” - Vlad, Robinhood
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the second you let your feelings into a prediction market, someone sharper takes your money 'if you're biased on this party or this team, there's just money left on the table for sharper traders' your confirmation bias could cost you dearly
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Imagine what would happen if companies started running internal prediction markets with employees. For example: Are we going to hit 100M ARR before the end of the year. Yes | No. This would be super valuable data. And it would likely lead to better decision making. I'm going
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It’s not valid anymore to say “I don’t know how to do xyz”. We literally have infinite knowledge on demand at our fingertips thanks to AI. You can do anything.
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It’s funny how people worry about bias in prediction markets when in reality they’re one of the purest forms of truth seeking. Markets don’t care who you are or what you believe, only whether you’re right
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That’s why I’m building @mirapredictions with a sole focus on increasing culture market volume through UX
"In TradFi, the NYSE or CME, all their volume comes from third-party brokers rather than a first-party frontend... Brokers are critical to take prediction markets from just an app into a whole new financial layer" - @j0hnwang on @11AMdotclub
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Mira is coming 👀
Early Project @realworld_inc - DeFi @AmpleHQ - DeFi @CrownBRLV - DeFi @YieldOs - DeFi @limoraprotocol - DeFi @TorchExchange - DeFi @Predictir - Prediction Market @FliksDotFun - Prediction Market @mirapredictions - Prediction Market @anvylai - AI @azad_ide - AI @arcnovaai - AI
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The power of culture markets, congrats!!
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I was at a party today and I asked two girls I met for their x. They looked at me like I was crazy and said x scared them, I wonder why
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