Stefan Dercon
@gamblingondev
Followers
7,755
Following
315
Media
306
Statuses
1,596
Tweets. Some about "Gambling on Development", some not. Oxford University - Blavatnik School of Government - Director of the @Oxford_CSAE . Also Econ Dept Ox.
Joined March 2022
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
OPENING STORE WITH SAROCHA
• 200032 Tweets
Gojo
• 171422 Tweets
高橋一生
• 129763 Tweets
共同親権
• 87518 Tweets
MARK 200 OUT NOW
• 86948 Tweets
岸辺露伴
• 64423 Tweets
AsLazFinali RevizeEdilsin
• 56013 Tweets
Colin
• 51883 Tweets
#BRIDGERTON
• 47963 Tweets
都知事選
• 46403 Tweets
ジョジョ婚
• 36565 Tweets
石丸市長
• 33822 Tweets
出馬表明
• 28679 Tweets
安芸高田市長
• 26752 Tweets
露伴先生
• 26191 Tweets
ビシエド
• 20401 Tweets
五条復活
• 20176 Tweets
#ぐるナイ
• 18285 Tweets
Arda Kardeşler
• 16421 Tweets
Pinned Tweet
Gambling for Development in 30 points.
1. The argument
2. What it means for international development efforts?
3. What it means for research?
4. What is missing?
5. Who may like reading this book and why? 1/n
14
158
435
Congratulations to Andrew Mitchell MP for being back where his passion is: leading development policy for the UK.
A brief thread. 1/n
14
107
415
Recently, after some years delay, I had my day at Windsor Castle.
Not quite what this boy from the suburbs near Antwerp in Belgium had imagined some decades ago.
I am grateful to family, friends and colleagues, present and past. 1/2
53
14
403
I have had the privilege of working for
@RoryStewartUK
at
@DIFID_UK
. These were the days... I can assure you there was no-one with more integrity in UK politics - but he never gave me or any civil servant an easy ride.
2
23
168
Researchers love to offer '1st best' advice to policymakers & then walk away when advice is ignored due to political incentives.
If we care about impact, let's carefully look at what a 2nd best -accounting for pol. constraints- looks like.
And then give 'subversive' advice.
🌟NEW CSAE Working Paper 'The Political Economy of Economic Policy Advice' by
@gamblingondev
.
This paper offers a framework for assessing how to maximise the economic development impact of advice, allowing for the political incentives of those in power.
1
17
55
5
42
174
Morning run in Lodhi Garden.
Not a bad start for a week of about 10 talks and debates across Delhi.
6
1
151
Gambling on Development visited the UK Parliament recently at the invitation of the All-Party Parliamentary Group on Extreme Poverty (thanks to BRAC UK
@BRACworld
)
What I told them, including about the direction of UK Aid, and on funding for foreign policy, a thread.1/n
4
21
105
My first frontpage... Glad (and hopefully unsurprising) it is not about some scandal or something I didn't mean, but for things I said and wanted to say.
For Pakistan to be a successful economy & deliver better lives, but those with power must change their actions and behaviours
8
20
109
I would be keen to write a piece “how to be policy advisor”, based on my experiences in the last 10 years in Whitehall, in DFID and FCDO. It will be a tragicomedy. Some good stories to tell. Anyone interested? 7/8
6
0
85
An interview with me just published with the provocative title “don’t fixate on smallholders’.
I tend to get a bit carried away on this topic, and in trouble.
A short thread - do read the thread to the end, there is a twist. 1/9
We need to get away from the fixation on smallholders and focus on a development model that actually improves livelihood opportunities, according to Stefan Dercon of the University of Oxford in this interview ⬇️
@BlavatnikSchool
@Oxford_CSAE
0
9
20
4
31
79
Seems my tweets from last week got a bit of attention…
Hopefully not just noise and political pingpong but leading to some sanity and serious commitment.
Time for a quiet evening in this fishing village in Senegal.
You are allowed to be jealous.
2
1
70
Back from 6 months of travel in Africa and South Asia. So good for the mind and the soul, listening and learning, and yes talking a bit too. 1/5
3
3
68
Nice of Jim Robinson to say I understand both science and politics. Understanding it does not mean I know how to bridge the gap in practice. A good excuse for another thread – about my recent time in the UK’s Whitehall – more than just a place of great parties. 1/8
3
13
69
"History is a constraint [for current development levels] but can be overcome" says
@lwantchekon
's in last month's Kuznets Lecture at Yale . My book gives examples of how elites in Indonesia, Ghana, Bangladesh and tentatively Ethiopia tried to do this.
1
12
68
What I love about my phone is that it randomly shows me photos from my past travels.
This is from lecturing in Kolkata, January 2020, still ignorant about what Covid would bring.
Would be nice to see a photo of Gambling on Development here too...
A few thoughts on India 1/n
3
6
67
Neither Ranil or I are giving up on this story.
Besides terrible incentives for careful public spending as Ranil picks up, for me it is also about honesty and transparency of what Overseas Aid is used for.
Even if you don’t care about foreign aid at all, this arrangement should make your blood boil. It’s an irresponsible, daft way to spend public money when the Government is already planning new rounds of spending cuts.
0
7
24
1
18
63
"The UK aid budget is increasingly not spent on development inside poor countries but has become the cashpoint in the sky for other government departments' spending."
1
12
62
Update: the genie is out of the bottle.
Aid budget likely to go to 0.55/GNI! The increase covers est. 1/3 of domestic spending of refugees.
That's a start: 0.5 has been breached. Sense prevails.
Not good: so much domestic spending still presented to world as overseas aid.
1/So: Billions of UK domestic spending especially on refugee costs at the expense of aid to Africa and Asia.
What will now happen in Autumn statement with ODA budget?
@JasmineCC_95
@BBCJLandale
@michaelsavage
@lara_spirit
@willrworley
@AndrewmitchMP
@campbellclaret
1/n
1
15
50
2
13
60
Must get going. These lectures won’t prepare themselves.
1
0
63
Really sad to hear
@MartinRavallion
has passed away.
Martin was hugely inspirational for a generation of poverty economists, including myself.
He doggedly valued accurate measurement, clarity of thinking, & a deep commitment to the cause of fighting poverty across the world.
So sad to hear of the tragic loss of
@MartinRavallion
— pioneering poverty researcher, one of the most influential economists of the
@WorldBank
, and a respected
@Georgetown
professor. His contribution to our understanding of development was truly enormous.
110
441
2K
1
7
60
A 2-year post-doc post at Centre for the Study of African Economies
@Oxford_CSAE
to work with me, et al
Profile: work on functioning of public organisations preferably Africa, using identity econ, political econ or public admin tools, or cool stuff.
0
31
62
If anyone wants to make sure an audiobook version of Gambling on Development will be produced, you better like this tweet.
@HurstPublishers
2
0
57
Guardian interview: They had to pick that headline….
But I also stress how relevant and useful aid was in Ghana or Bangladesh (and other places with elite commitment to development…)
Let’s see how this line will follow me in days and years to come…
2
14
55
@yuenyuenang
Thank you - I could not have written the book without the inspiration I got from your book. No doubt, as seen from 1979, the governance reforms were a gamble. But elite commitment, a state used effectively, and much space for learning: it was all there.
1
8
55
Full issue of Development Policy Review devoted to a critical discussion of ideas in my book with stellar cast.
Open access
@aprizzon
@nomhossain
@DrArkebe
@EmergingRoy
@hmryder
@kunalsen5
Liang Ma - Carolina Trivelli
@ODI_Global
1
18
57
Brief thread on a fascinating visit Bangladesh hosted by
@bigd_brac
and
@ypf
– grateful to impressive teams led by Imran Matin and by Md Abir Hasan.
If there is a World Tour on Gambling on Development, then Bangladesh was definitely the right place to start it.
2
15
55
Not to make you jealous but this was the view of my morning run in Kandy, SLanka.
SL and people’s purchasing power took a big hit, but not only seem people resilient, I’m impressed how well this place functions: trains, border, services.
Tourists are not back - they should.
3
0
55
I will do the same.
If this change at
@iza_bonn
goes through and Armin Falk becomes boss on 1/1, I will resign my appointment.
This is a tough thing for me to say, because it’s hard to overstate how important this affiliation is for me, being located far from the center of the academic world. 1/2
4
21
256
0
9
55
My presentation that got quite a bit of attention in Islamabad in the last few days:
2
10
53
While there are definitely many more things you can do with a hard copy of Gambling on Development, the Kindle version is now available on Amazon all over the world.
3
2
50
1/So: Billions of UK domestic spending especially on refugee costs at the expense of aid to Africa and Asia.
What will now happen in Autumn statement with ODA budget?
@JasmineCC_95
@BBCJLandale
@michaelsavage
@lara_spirit
@willrworley
@AndrewmitchMP
@campbellclaret
1/n
1
15
50
2.1 Core lesson: outside actors have lesser role than they believe. Aid never changed countries: sensible pol. and econ. choices/behaviours by local actors did, and aid that buys into these can be helpful. Ghana and Bangladesh are aid successes; but aid failed in many places.10/n
3
11
49
Not a bad chart to honour
@MartinRavallion
who sadly just passed away.
Under Martin's inspirational leadership, this systematic way of measuring poverty using 'a dollar-a-day' (now $2.15 in 2017 prices), and its progress across the developing world came about.
The end of poverty is possible.
Each country shown on this chart achieved a large decline in extreme poverty over the last generation.
This is one of the most important lessons we can learn from the available data: rapid progress against poverty can be achieved.
36
750
2K
0
18
51
There are days I miss being a policy advisor inside FCDO.
How I would have loved helping to write this letter to the Home Office....
Exclusive: UK to be stopped from spending aid budget on arriving refugees
2
8
50
Within the fixed 0.5 ODA budget, the UK is now spending more of its development budget inside the UK than inside poor developing countries. 5/n
2
17
47
Below a link to a piece
"In Praise of African Technocrats" which I wrote for African Arguments, published by the Royal African Society.
The first part summarises the book's argument, but then zooms in on some key people.
A brief thread 1/n
4
18
43
Had great time talking to 100 FCDO economists on my tricks on how to work with politicians who may not have much regard for evidence.
I understand that this is sensitive for the powers that be.
Still didn’t expect them to send a marching band to drown me out, bagpipes and all.
1
1
45
Last week in Delhi was energising.
One highlight was a talk to econ students at Sri Guru Gobind Singh College of Commerce at University of Delhi.
Nothing more fun than talking to a packed room...
(Thanks to Gurleen Kaur, the Principal, and colleagues for the warm welcome.)
3
1
46
Gambling on Development — how economic miracles can happen via
@FT
A Financial Times review by
@davidpilling
. Thank you!
0
17
42
Development Policy Review devotes an issue to a discussion of Gambling on Development and how to think about aid...
with great cast, healthy disagreement, alternative framings and a good dose of support.
1
11
44
Pakistan needs ways to recover from the devastating floods. It also needs a way to restart its economy, creating jobs and better prospects for its youth.
Business as usual won’t get it there
@CTurnerFCDO
@PIDEpk
@YousufNazar
.
1/12
The
#FloodsInPakistan
continue to disrupt lives and livelihoods, but the world’s attention will move on. A thread considering how 🇵🇰 & the international community might
#BuildBackSmarter
and fight the
#ClimateCrisis
1/9
8
60
308
3
31
39
Looking forward to events on Gambling on Development next week In Washington and Boston, at the IMF, the World Bank, at the MCC, at SAIS (Johns Hopkins), at Georgetown and at Centre for Global Development.
The public events below. 1/n
2
12
43
As the audiobook of Gambling on Development is at last out on Amazon and other platforms, it seems a good time to descend to cheap publicity and show some more photos of my cat.
I am sure there are more sophisticated ways to advertise this.
4
2
46
What a glorious day to take my book for a walk along the Thames in London…
2
1
40
My key lesson: the stories told in Washington, Brussels or London are not the challenges that preoccupy people in all these countries, so don’t super-impose them, but start much more from what the local challenges are whether with politics, economy, poverty & environment. 4/5
1
6
40
This weekend's gentle run next to the river in Oxford,
the last moment of peace before busy term of teaching & student supervision
as well as trips and talks in Islamabad, Kuala Lumpur and Morocco (annuals).
Will have time in Kuala Lumpur & Morocco.
Just drop me a line.
1
1
41
Intriguing that
@FT
(
@martinwolf_
) puts Gambling on Development under best Economics Summer Books of 2022, while at
@blackwelloxford
I am under bestsellers in History and Politics.
Maybe I did something right in the book on how development can be achieved. 🧵1/8
2
7
37
It is all very well that you like my tweets, and hear them read on the BBC.
But I like to think that I make clearer arguments, still passionate/committed, in long form.
So why not buy and read my book (and give a review score)
Available/read in lots of places around the world.
3
7
39
Briefed UN Senior ManTeam/
@antonioguterres
on lessons in Gambling on Development for fragile/conflict states, eg. Sudan; S Sudan
-peace deals are rent-sharing deals, some ugly
-elites have blocking power over peace/development.
-UN must do more to understand econ/pol econ.
2
6
40
Having left the UK 3.5 months ago, travelling around Africa (more on that soon), great to have reached Kampala, Uganda!
Will be here until 27th Jan.
Will be giving a few talks - do get in touch if you need to know more about any of them. more details below 1/4
2
7
39
It is not about large vs small, or my deep love for Monsanto. My point is we need structural transformation, and for many marginal, poor farmers a route out of agriculture. And just focusing on smallholder productivity is not be enough and at times misguided. 2/9
1
4
36
From 1 Oc 2022, I will be based across Africa and Asia until March 2023.
Provisional locations (all tbc)
Mauritius, Senegal, Niger, Ethiopia, Kenya, Eastern Congo, Nigeria, Tanzania, Zanzibar, India, Uzbekistan, Nepal, Bangladesh
Want to organise something? Let me know-DM.
5
3
35
1.1/ My thesis: for take-off through growth and development, elites with power and influence in poor countries must be committed to growth & development, and be willing to make economic and political choices that reflect this. Such elite bargain is a development bargain. 3/n
2
15
36
In fact, aid is now only 0.3% of GNI once we account for all asylum/refugee costs and other spending programmes for Ukraine inside the UK.
That is now less than it was before 1997. 7/n
1
19
33
Excellent work by Oxford scientists
@oxmartinschool
We don't need scientists chasing headlines & contributing to more conflict in the Horn. But not a good headline so no coverage
Setting record straight on impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam
1
24
35
Tomorrow I am (virtually) in Bangladesh, discussing how it moved from Henry Kissinger's "basket case" to quite a success in development.
I hope to be challenged about my account - and look at what the world (and Bangladesh today) can learn from what changed a few decades ago.
Looking forward to this conversation with Professor Stefan Dercon tomorrow. The link will be on the Facebook page of the Youth Policy Forum.
@gamblingondev
0
3
11
1
7
29
In Islamabad, Pakistan, talking tomorrow at 2pm local time (streamed).
Fascinating discussions here. Expectations are high; political & economic crisis is perceived as deeper than ever.
No time for academic showboating at present. Really worth to genuinely engage.
What determines a country's progress in its development journey, & how can 🇵🇰 develop a cohesive policy response to its own development challenges?
@gamblingondev
is delivering a Keynote Address at the World Bank's
#ReformsforABrighterFuture
conference.
1
6
10
3
9
36
Gave seven talks this week in Tblisi, Dhaka, Washington, London and Rome. Over 1000 people.
At Bangladesh's YPF, FCDO, IFAD, WorldBank, BEI.
I heard stories, experiences and questions on Malawi, Uzbekistan, Lebanon, Ethiopia and more.
I think the book was worth the gamble.
1
1
33
We offer funding, an academic home, an amazing peer group, and wonderful support team for African economics scholars to spend time at Oxford.
@Oxford_CSAE
we are keen to deepen our links with African universities - this scheme is one way to support/mentor African scholars.
The CSAE Visiting Fellowship 2024 scheme is open! The scheme supports a residency in Oxford from January to March, including flights, accommodation, & a small stipend. Open to African scholars currently pursuing a career in
#economics
.
ℹ️
@OxfordEconDept
1
27
27
0
16
35
I wanted to write a hopeful book as well.
Despite terrible elites in many places, I wanted to highlight places that appear to have moved forward in development/growth - Bangladesh, Ghana.
and applaud elites that moved to contain conflict - Nepal, Somaliland.
Change happens.
0
4
33
I admit. My morning run in Oxford is rather pretty this time of the year.
1
0
33
So Mr Mitchell and Mr Cleverly, just as this government is entrusted to restoring some sanity in economic policy making,
please rebuild the UK’s global reputation for sanity in development spending and accounting. We may yet become a superpower in development again. 43/end
3
7
35
Looking forward to speaking to FCDO economists about what I have learned in 10 years working as senior advisor working in UK government and international development.
Lesson 1: don't just study political economy in the countries you work in, but also understand it in the UK.
If you want to speak truth to power, you better understand power.
Academics must be truthful to the evidence, but also invest time to understand how political decisions are actually made.
note to self: write that piece on "how to be an effective policy advisor as an academic"
1
1
9
2
3
32
In case anyone wonders, still doing the research day job, with some my favourite colleagues.
And of this piece I am particularly proud…
We won a prize:
Innovative Policy Research award by International Economic Association
@IEA_economics
and Asian Development Bank
@ADB_HQ
1/3 Our evaluation - the first large-scale study of anticipatory cash transfers in response to extreme weather events - has won
@ADB_HQ
Innovative Policy Research Award! Congrats to the team:
@gamblingondev
,
@ruthvargashill
,
@ashley_pople
& Ben Brunckhorst!
3
3
13
2
4
35
The UK's Int. Development White Paper is a bit of "Old Wine in New Bottles"...
but as merger had managed to break the old bottles, sensible to get some new ones.
Worth reading: Ranil's take.
Next? Genuine commitment & implementation required, but also in a much changed world.
Late to the White Paper party after a full day of teaching yesterday. Having read it, I have mixed feelings.
Lots of good intent, but little recognition of the difficulties of achieving this intent, and the resources and policy change they require; or if indeed, it is possible.
1
8
30
0
3
34
Gambling on Development is now available in UK bookshops and is being shipped across the world - . Yuen Yuen Ang
@yuenyuenang
said this about the book:
3
8
31
Christian Meyer
@chrmeyer
and myself in plea not to delay support for macroeconomic reform and stabilisation in Ethiopia by IMF, WB or EU.
Accountability matters but give it the time required. Don’t delay support beyond humanitarian, or peace/stability may be hard to maintain.
Deepening macroeconomic crisis will put all the gains toward peace and stability at serious risk.
0
2
11
4
6
32
This was quite something. Fascinating discussion. Honoured to have Chief Olusegun Obasanjo engaging with the themes of the book (and be up for a selfie).
Just left the excellent event this afternoon in Lagos by
@Aig_Imoukhuede
‘s Foundation where
@UniofOxford
Professor of Economic Policy Stefan Deacon
@gamblingondev
presented his ideas in his new book Gambling on Development.The event was chaired by ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo
5
30
167
1
3
32
The view from my train near Colombo, Sri Lanka.
Stunningly beautiful place and most friendly and good humoured people on a packed commuter train.
0
0
33
Things you can do with a hard copy of Gambling on Development That you cannot do with an ebook
Episode 5: Celebrating the official publication with a coffee on department’s beautiful terrace in Oxford.
@BlavatnikSchool
Available as book in UK et al. Soon elsewhere; kindle now
0
3
32
Not a bad lead to bury my announcement that I am resigning from FCDO as Policy Advisor to the UK Foreign Secretary, and will leave in coming weeks. 2/8
13
4
30
I promise I did not pay for this.
And I have never been called hot either.
1
0
30
So what to do:
Principle 1/ Get a defined and protected development budget that is focused on the poorest countries, and that can be fixed in ways that it will not be further cut even if there are ‘extra’ needs such as humanitarian costs.
20/n
2
2
30
Delighted to be
@ISSERUG
at
@Oxford_CSAE
workshop with 30 researchers from across Africa, with Oxford academics there to give feedback on their work to help to improve research quality/presentation - and learn from them too.
And we will watch Ghana play today…
2
5
31
So cool.
I came to Berbera in 2015, on an empty 737 for an unlikely visit, to talk to Somaliland business leaders - some who had flown in from Dubai and London - and to help pitch the port development and linking it back to Ethiopia.
This was the vision (as told in my book).
The 🇬🇧 is investing in the
#BerberaCorridor
to grow the economy, create jobs, and promote sustainable development+stability
I recently travelled this vital economic route with
@ctoepell
to see the impact of 🇬🇧 investment, the opportunities/challenges.
Watch to find out more ⬇️
46
106
310
2
4
33
Now this is worth reading for those following FCDO trials and tribulations…
Great to see
@AndrewmitchMP
back in government doing what he knows best - international development.
He was very honest and open about his aims at a FCDO/DFID Alumni event today.
Here's a thread on his main points.
1/15
4
42
126
1
5
29
Tanzania visit of 2 weeks ago got some good coverage.
I am v positive about what is going on in Mwalimu’s country, with President and the party beginning to reset cautiously and pragmatically after the turbulent personality- and ideology-driven reign of the previous president.
1
2
29
Nice, thank you.
I mean every word of this Stefan Dercon is an extraordinary development thinker - modest, fiercely intelligent and wise - highly recommended to anyone interested in how to do development better…
1
18
113
3
1
29
Yes.
"Low-productivity smallholder farming is a dead end."
- Stefan Dercon (
@gamblingondev
)
With few exceptions, it's nearly impossible to make a living with a smallholder farms, and those farmers are trapped in poverty.
1
8
18
6
5
28
For example, Ukrainian Homes for Visa programme - we are the only G7 country to charge this to our aid programme. 11/n
1
4
28
From 29 January, with next stage of sabbatical, and after 9 African countries, I will be in South Asia, starting with India.
I hope to reach a few neighbouring countries too.
Likely in Delhi 5-9 February, with a few talks.
(Bangalore 1-4 and 10-15 Feb).
DM with ideas?
5
3
29
Brilliant Doug Gollin at Oxford and at the similarly brilliant STEG (
@CEPR_org
) typically puts these things far more precise than I do. See a great overview paper: 3/9
1
8
28
The end of a fascinating trip to Uganda. I hope to be back soon.
0
1
29
Not quite what I would have expected when writing the book. Kuala Lumpur 1.10.2023
@MYKMF2019
@Khazanah_MY
…
0
0
29
One area in which costs ODA are soaring are the refugee and asylum seekers costs, mainly for Ukraine.
Of course, we should help them, but entirely on the back of the poor in Africa and Asia? 6/n
4
2
29
Aid spending always is difficult: it only delivers developm. progress when part of long term programmes and local relationships. Now, UK aid spending has to carry the residual risk for inefficiencies of other govt departments with disastrous effects for impact & value for money.
1
7
29
Ex-Foreign Office adviser says aid cuts are ‘dreadful moral choice’
1
7
25
Some coverage of my trip to Pakistan. Ready to talk more about this at 2pm in Islamabad...
0
13
27
Principle 5/A for f**k sake, fund foreign policy properly, and don’t try to squeeze it into the aid budget.
Don't embarrass us further with secondary ODA benefits that are more important than primary ones. 28/n
2
0
26
With all these presentations was thinking of big disasters of the past…
lesson 1 : No bad jokes.
Being on a panel with this man and doubling adjectives all the time as in: “there is good good evidence from good good nightlights data that…”
No laughs. Mind you, only at WEF.
2
1
26
Our tribute to Benno Ndulu.
Hopefully an interesting book telling some of our success and failure to work on supporting govts to take advantage of digital opportunities.
Politics, bureaucracies, vested interests but also inspiring people trying to make it work.
Very excited to get the cover of this: our book to honour the memory of Benno Ndulu. We set out the lessons from work he led on digital transformation. To be released next month.
@gamblingondev
@BlavatnikSchool
5
17
68
0
5
27