FuturesPunter
@futurespunter
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Want to help others beat the bookies with early mail on any value on all-in markets. Consistently beat SP so you can often lay off stake if risk averse
Joined January 2021
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Is Icebath at $2.6 the bet of the year? It just might be...
Wet track, JMac, 54kg.
As an aside,
@BWiddupRacing
have placed that horse better than any other in history. Still getting 54kg in G2 F&M and 51.5kg in Doncaster. Has won almost $4m!
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Brooklyn Hustle $41 for Straddie. Every fibre of my being is telling me 'no, it's a trap!'
But is it 🤔 there's no way it should be those odds surely?... Ah bugger it, one last time. Cmon the Hustle!
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Can I say she is the best horse in Australia yet?
WHAT A QUEEN!💗
Fangirl has returned in dominant style in the Group 2 Apollo Stakes under
@mcacajamez
for
@cwallerracing
.
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If you moved quick, you made a killing... GYGT!
Move quick... Moir Stakes
WILD RULER, $26 on SB
Great ew bet
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Well done Peter Moody on criticising a fair track. Now we have a leaders farce in response 🤦♂️
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Reckon they've missed one Saturday in the 2yo at Randwick.
R1 FLEETWOOD, $13, tab/tabtouch/b365
I've marked it 5s. Hidden trialler. Latest trial at below link.
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Any chance someone putting up $29 please?
#askingforafriend
“She’s the most vulnerable horse in the race, I’ve got her marked $29.”
@M_Gannon_
says Fangirl has none in Saturday's
@CoxPlate
#GiddyUp
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BELLA NIPOTINA is constantly ignored by the market early in the week and then gets smashed late. I suspect same trend to continue this week.
There's a clear top 4 faves in Quokka and it's the only one that has drawn well. Form at wfa this campaign is elite.
$7 is a bet for me
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Hitotsu at $2.8 for the Australian Guineas is a joke right?
A horse whose two wins are a Donald maiden and a VRC Derby is under 2/1 to win a 1600m G1 first-up. I get that it'll be a weak field, but... $2.80. All-in. A month out?!
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Big overs indeed. Get in you good thing!! Hope a few had a fill up 🤑
Price on main one has gone a bit, but still see value as priced it at $5.
BD Prelude Fillies
CIGAR FLICK, best price now $13 on tabtouch, 11 on unibet, 8 elsewhere
Looking further out...
Lightning Stakes (1x3 bet - big overs this)
COOLANGATTA, $17 SB, Lads, Tab
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When TAB strips you of all 'promos', including bonus bets and multipliers they still leave The Lock there. Shows you how little they think of it
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Three suggested bets this week...
WINNING PARTNER @ $7.5, SPd $11) 1st ✅🤑
SHALAILED @ $11, SPd $2.5, 3rd 😥
GOLDEN MILE @ $4.6, SPd $2.3, 1st ✅🤑
Hope you all had a great week 🎯
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Fangirl record on soft 7 and heavy tracks:
6 starts, 0 placings
Fangirl record on soft 6 or better:
9 starts, 5 wins, 4 placings
Track with current forecast should be a 5 at worst 🤞
Bring on Saturday!
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It's after 2pm Thursday and still connections of Eduardo and Masked Crusader can't work out whether to run Saturday... and connections of Verry Elleegant have no idea if it's gonna run in the Melbourne Cup? Is it really that hard? 🤦♂️
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Imagine backing Grandslam with a top frontrunning jock on only to see it settle 5th and pull head off 🤦♂️
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Has there ever been a falser favourite for a big race than The Instructor? I've marked it $15 for 💎, bookies saying $5 favourite.
Times don't stack up. Was falling in a hole last start over 1000 against what looks the C set imo.
What do you think punters?
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R2 MV quite like WINNING PARTNER at the 7.5... very unlucky last start and with rain staying away, seemingly no excuses here. Just want to see some aggression to sit forward
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First bet of the new year...
Orr Stakes
TOFANE, $13 on SB ($11 elsewhere)
Should be half that atm. On current look of field could ultimately end up $3 or $4 - but always wary of left-field noms and plan changes. Very happy to take 13
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Think I'm gonna stop looking at the form for Randwick this week
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Lot of talk about the colt Profondo: so exciting for racing that Sportsbet think they are gonna let it run in fillies races 🤔
$13 is unders for mine, but each their own
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Well, it was quite a wait for this one, but a rather big payday yesterday. Hope many of you enjoyed a good win!
Zeyrek was max pain earlier, but the overs god clearly thought it too cruel to stop the great NZ filly 😜
And we're back - hope 2024 has started well for you!
VINERY STUD STAKES
Orchestral, $9, SB
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She's back? From where?
She was training the house down prior to the Toorak. Lost. Now she is training the house down. Must win Eagle?
She's a very good horse, but nothing we've seen says she will brain likes of Legarto, Kovalica, Hawaii and Obamburumai in an Eagle
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Cascadian out 😥
No vets certificate tells me Godolphin were worried he'd beat their golden boy
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@braddavo
Winners win. Anamoe was there to be run down and if any horse gets close, he prob finds more.
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Zaaki $26 pre draw. Gets gate 12 of 12. Wound into $15 😂🤯
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Get in!!
Tough win. Left in front a fair way out and fave had every chance to get by.
Nice collect even after the deductions - hope a few had a fill up 🤑
In terms of bets from yesterday...
One was ZIPAWAY in WA Guineas. Great ew play around $8 imo ($8.5 on SB). Clear best run for mine in main lead up. Now draws well.
Market has gravitated to the fillies. I get it, but price gap far too big for mine.
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Keiai Nautique gets a run if trained by a bigger stable... has Grandslam finished the 2020 edition yet?
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Bump
Sick of the talk about Dubai Honour being a mudder. Stable talk included. He handles wet, sure. But I would argue his best run was on a dry track and last season's mixed form was more about the tough season prior...
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Reckon HOME AFFAIRS is the overlooked horse of the Coolmore. Record doesn't highlight just how much it hates the wet but its two career peak ratings are its only two goes on dry. First up was a great win over Paulele (some bias but ran time and won well) + now gets JMac back
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Have one early play for next week at a huge quote. Will post at 930 tonight
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When you're hot, you're hot.
Two races today. Results:
English Riviera ($8) 3rd
Revolutionary Miss ($11) 1st
Tofane ($13) 1st
🍾
Also happy with the crazy odds we got on zouzarella in surround and even Cascadian for QE. Nothing wrong with their runs today.
First bet of the new year...
Orr Stakes
TOFANE, $13 on SB ($11 elsewhere)
Should be half that atm. On current look of field could ultimately end up $3 or $4 - but always wary of left-field noms and plan changes. Very happy to take 13
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Tweeted at $3.9. Starts at $2.5 just 30 mins later... and gets us the choccies 🔥🔥🔥
Nice way to round off any weekend
One bet tonight
R2 Longchamp
HAYA ZARK, $3.9 tab
Yes, the fave beat it last start. But that was dry. First up, Haya thrashed it on wet, and it is very wet tonight.
Perhaps fave was shorter on fitness 1st up, but gap between them too big. Anything 3.2+ on Haya I love
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You could take four or five horses out of that race and you wouldn't even notice.
Let's hope Steparty vs Militarize isn't taken away from us because one is stuck behind a bm64 type
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First Royal Ascot bet coming around 7pm.
Heavy place bet on a horse at 50s, that I reckon should be more like 12s
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Huge run Cascadian but don't pay on that. Misses start, goes 8 wide round home turn... AJ given a peach and very strong through line. Interesting to see how she measures up in the east
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Not sure why STOCKMAN isn't clear favourite in Syd Cup. Ratings have it very well in. 2nd to Duais at wfa reads better than anything here. Loves heavy. Should be $4
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And we're back - hope 2024 has started well for you!
VINERY STUD STAKES
Orchestral, $9, SB
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We keep on rolling in WA 🤑🤑
Pauleleeeeeeeeeeeee. Huge win! Came from the clouds and showed it's true form today at a more than handy price.
Roll on big Cas next week!
3 WA futures bets, all best odds on b365.
WA Guineas
AMELIAS JEWEL, $3.5
Winterbottom
PAULELE, $13
Northerly
CASCADIAN, $5
Amelias and Cascadian are high confidence plays (perhaps worth a double too). Paulele worth a small play as clear overs at anything double figures imo
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Some people will read this news and take any odds available. Don't do it.
$4.5 in a WFA G1 is poison. Absolute rock bottom odds. If you like it, wait.
$8 for Melb Cup is also stupidly short.
Amelia's Jewel now $4 for Cox Plate. Likewise, an overreaction.
Be patient punters
Metropolitan winner Just Fine is heading to
@Caulfield
next weekend.
Runs in the Might And Power Stakes over 2000m with Jordan Childs (
@JChilds47
) booked to ride.
Stablemate Alligator Blood also heading there and Tim Clark (
@clarkyhk
) will be back aboard.
@Racing
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Imagine heading to Oz with a 103-rater that is coming off two straight G1 seconds to elite 3yos and missing a run in the Australian Cup to an 82-rated 3yo who's only G1 experience was an 8th (unlucky, sure, but ratings can't factor that in).
Brutal ballot
#campionessa
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At this rate, might need Keiai Nautique to ensure there's enough for a 3rd dividend
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Any reason why they didn't bring races forward in Syd knowing the forecast? Start at 1130, bring in the gaps between races and prob get through that card?
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As long as there's no leader bias, Fangirl starts favourite tomorrow right racing twitter?
Destroyed Brightside over a mile, who had swooped past Gator over a mile prior.
Presence of Jenni makes it interesting so a bit wary of how race will go. But deserving fave for mine
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3 WA futures bets, all best odds on b365.
WA Guineas
AMELIAS JEWEL, $3.5
Winterbottom
PAULELE, $13
Northerly
CASCADIAN, $5
Amelias and Cascadian are high confidence plays (perhaps worth a double too). Paulele worth a small play as clear overs at anything double figures imo
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Onto Elite Street we go next week
$5.5+ for the multi of WESTERN EMPIRE in Railway into ELITE STREET in Winterbottom looks generous. Both should be odds-on
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Hope a few got the $13.
Listening to James Cummings on SEN this morning... sounded bullish. Notable that Nash was gonna ride given he trialled up both Godolphins as well as the Waterhouse fave (Coincide)
Reckon they've missed one Saturday in the 2yo at Randwick.
R1 FLEETWOOD, $13, tab/tabtouch/b365
I've marked it 5s. Hidden trialler. Latest trial at below link.
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Couple of others Saturday I think are top odds atm
Syd
R4 Snowman, $5.5 Lads
R9 Fangirl, $8 Lads
You know I love Fangirl. And we get JMac back on (3 for 3), a good gate and dry. $8 is great shopping
Snowman form with Riff Rocket is 🔥. Think support comes. Kitten way too short
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Will be retired within a fortnight citing a "minor injury". Has "shown everyone it was the superior 2yo of its class, with one of the most dominant Slipper wins in memory. We look forward to seeing it produce future superstars at stud".
Take note if playing Spring Futures.
Just spoke with
@gallopgreen
. Golden Rose looking very unlikely for Stay Inside. Looks like a freshen up and then the Coolmore at Flemington the next target.
$13 currently in Coolmore Stud Stakes (Pre Noms) with
@tabcomau
@SkyRacingAU
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Talking through my kick but... Spanish Mission being required to be cleared of an infection on Saturday for a Tuesday race makes no sense. Why not give until morning of as per any G1? Obviously no emergencies key here, which again highlights how crazy that is
#amimissingsomething
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Militarize at $11 for the Cox Plate is one of the worst futures bets I've seen (assuming no futures insurance).
Here's why:
1) Waller doesn't usually push his star 3yos beyond Flight/Guineas E.g. Autumn Sun, Winx, Press Statement, Zougotcha, Funstar, Osipenko
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Dubai Honour far too good 👏
Cascadian runs 2nd tho if there right?
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Not the huge result we wanted but pretty happy with that run.
Just found one better who kept kicking from the front.
More than handy place return 👍
Suggested ew play this weekend.
Vanity Stakes
FRENCH ENDEAVOUR, $23/$6 (TAB, b365 best atm)
Looks massive overs. I'd probably have taken $8.
It's a tricky race with different formlines and think they will try a few. But this seems the clear overs
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Tuvalu gross unders today. First up off a winter champs in a fast-pace G1 and it's $4.8 favourite 🤷♂️
Not targeted for race ... won well last start but seriously, what odds sir davy in this? Won't get to control race with Buff and even if does, wind hurts. Should be $15 for mine
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Please don't waste your time or money backing Kyprios for the Melbourne Cup. Sportsbet have wound into $11 favourite.
No chance it comes
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If 9yo Eduardo wins from gate 13 with 59kg on a dry deck with speed aplenty inside it, it will be one of the performances of a generation.
Should be 20s and won't have my money, but would be great to see him pull off the impossible
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Well played Zac Purton! Just put some coin on The Irishman in the last, so fair to say he will finish on 7 now 😂
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DM if you want the next suggested futures bet (prices have been moving too quick once tweeted). Will send at 12pm. Will be a 3 bet race and include suggested staking based on $20 spend (multiply it how you like)
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Who has backed Delphi from $51 into $19 in 24 hours? 🤯
Hasn't shown the ability to settle well enough for 3200, was mildly lame last week and is coming off its worst run in Oz, if not its career. Hard pass for me at those odds
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Call me crazy, but reckon Nerve Not Verve should be favourite tomorrow.
Grandslam best horse on dry. But miles back in two wet runs. Worth one more chance wet at lower level given losses were G1, but couldn't possibly take $1.85. Only concern I have with Nerve is month gap
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I'm a big fan of Home Affairs (on dry), but $2.8 looks poison for the Newmarket. Bivouac handicapped 2.5kg less when it won as 3yo.
So similar to what I said about Hitotsu for Guineas, if you like HA, wait. Wouldn't be surprised if Lost and Running starts favourite
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A few bets today. First three are small plays, just think some value. R5 bet I'm confident goes very close. Should peak 3rd up
R1 Stalking, $10
R3 Rocha Clock, $6.5
R4 Mumbai Jewel, $11
R5 Right you are, $4.2 (best)
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Just the one bet posted all in this week, handy result.
How good is Anamoe tho!!
1x3 play this weekend with SB
Chipping Norton
FANGIRL, $13/$3.9, SB
Think 11/3.5 Lads also worth taking, but SB protection handy in case dual noms
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THINK IT OVER in Aust Cup into VE in Ranvet looks handy at $9
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@Rory_Flanagan
Injured on day. Choppy track. Asked to come from a mile off a very decent horse in TIO. I'll be forgiving
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Golden Sixty a bit Winx-like there. Set a crazy task. Did it easy... again
The Japanese are coming tho - will soon find out how good he is
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Next futures bet for Autumn.
ZOUZARELLA in Surround. $51 everywhere (best place: $14 on SB)
Think Espiona prob class above all, but for a horse that was 2nd favourite in a thousand guineas last start, $51 seems disrespectful. Small play, heavy on place 1x4
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Liking a look of a few all in for Saturday. Hopefully tweet one or two ~10pm tonight
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Huge win!! No aggression, but got space to maintain momentum out wide. Far too good despite racing keen.
Bring on Cox Plate Day 🤑🤑
R2 MV quite like WINNING PARTNER at the 7.5... very unlucky last start and with rain staying away, seemingly no excuses here. Just want to see some aggression to sit forward
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Got the overs. Got a winner. Hope a few were on at the $17/$18 🤑
Syd 2yo didn't go to plan but this more than makes up for it
Looking for some value in first Melb 2yo race of the season on Saturday... small plays on KRAKARIB and ZULFIQAR.
Both around $17/$18. Will add rationale below.
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Not a suggested bet, but hard to fathom how Amelia's Jewel is $1.65 vs $13 Pride of Jenni given 4kg turnaround for 0.75L. The extent potential is being weighed into the market is incredible.
Perhaps just a watch race, but Antino, Jenni and The Inevitable all of interest pre draw
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Sorry for the delay!! 1x3 bet. Best odds SB.
Coolmore Classic
YEARNING, $51/$14, SB
Will include rationale below later.
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Horrific to see what happened in Perth Cup. Chili is Hot 😥
Date change will expose huge contradictions in betting rules. Some bookies will void, some will keep bets alive. Farcical that Ts & Cs are so out of whack across industry
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How good is Fangirl!!!! Never lets you down on a dry track.
Awesome ride, sensational win 👌
Couple of others Saturday I think are top odds atm
Syd
R4 Snowman, $5.5 Lads
R9 Fangirl, $8 Lads
You know I love Fangirl. And we get JMac back on (3 for 3), a good gate and dry. $8 is great shopping
Snowman form with Riff Rocket is 🔥. Think support comes. Kitten way too short
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William Thomas with a new record 17th flashing light run in a row 🚨
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Best horse in the country shows them how it's done on the best racing day on the calendar.
Would love to see her run at MV in two weeks - not looking much pace in race to make it a hard 2000 and smallish field suits
🏇WFA Performance Ratings ⏱️⚖️📊 - Five highest-rated winners from Saturday 14/10:
*⃣ Fangirl went like a 🚀with tremendous acceleration and speed over the final 400m. A big new peak rating (up from 102.5)
*⃣ Think About It continues his 📈 going from 103-->105 in his Everest…
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Early plays. Tweet 1/2. Next tweet has more speculative options. Below are high confidence (NB. odds are SB given promo of all-in cash back if they don't run - can find higher odds elsewhere).
Edward Manifold: SHE'S LICKETYSPLIT, $4.4
Premiere: MAZU, $4
Flight: FIREBURN $3
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Who on earth has backed Forbidden Love into 4.8?? Likely a good 4 track, drawn wide and Bowman jumps off. Drift coming
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Got the race pretty right but turned out best odds on day 🤦♂️
Still take the win 🤑🤑🤑
The other one I think is overs in the BD prelude fillies division is REVOLUTIONARY MISS. $11 worth a play.
Again a different formline to the Preview, and think Rev comes through a good alternate (Preview seemed pretty even to me)
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ELZAMEE at $14 on Friday night at MV (R7). That's a bet ew all day. Big run against bias last start. Gets Johnny and a nice enough draw that hopefully gets it in 3-wide line when it matters.
Maher-Eustace seem to have a very good opinion too 🤞
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We are alive and kicking.
Super Sunny just won the main lead up as favourite. He will not be $34 on the day... maybe $3.4 🤔
Reckon 4 big chances in the big race in 3 weeks and happy to be on him.
Re Tuchel: had his chance today. Prob kicks on to Derby but doubt can win
HK Derby, March 19
Two bet play.
TUCHEL, $9 (betr, lads, 365)
SUPER SUNNY SING, $34 (betr, lads)
Available in Racing futures section. Suggest slightly more $ on Tuchel if playing
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Imagine having Fangirl and Espiona in your stable and not winning a Guineas or Flight stakes 🤷♂️
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If ever punters needed a justice refund from
@sportsbetcomau
it is now
#realworld
#coxplate
Every man and his dog piling on this week and devastation today
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Some harsh markers on Western Empire on Twitter. Yes, it ended 1-1 but wasn't exactly coasting to get there. First up off 10 months at G1 wfa and riding a decent speed, thought it was a good run to stick on. Would like to see ridden cold in makybe to get a true guide
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Opens $1.8 👀🙏
Confident play for this weekend below (please use Sportsbet given futures insurance).
Callander-Presnell
GOLDEN MILE, $4.6
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Soooo close. The 4.2 place handy, but what could have been.
That last 200m felt like an eternity
Not 100% this horse runs, so going to take slightly shorter price at SB. It is $15 elsewhere as fyi.
Star Kingdom Stakes
COAL CRUSHER, $14/$4.2 SB
Unlike Cinderella Days, think we have some fat in price in case of dire draw.
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Sheesh, $2 for Riff Rocket on a bog 2400 after he fell in at this distance on dry. Seems skinny
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Main HK futures plays and results:
PYLEDRIVER @ $9. 2nd (best horse won. Gave a great sight, perhaps only way it reverses if closer together as Pyle loves a scrap)
DUBAI HONOUR @ $19. 4th (stings, should've been top 3)
LOVES ONLY YOU @ $6. 1st ✈
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Oh my. The Rock!
That was some win!! So bloody good. Demolition job basically from gate open.
Vadream ridden too hot, but bit disappointing unfortunately. Still a very nice night 🪨🤑
QEII
Big Rock
$11 b365, TAB, SB
Champion Sprint
Vadream
$11 TAB
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