Here are FFLS Holdings Data as of 11/7/2025. https://t.co/MpFMXM7gIy

Here are FFND Holdings Data as of 11/7/2025. https://t.co/MpFMXM7gIy

The Future Fund LLC Exceeds $200 Million in Assets. Read more at https://t.co/Tr1tnHrv39

In equities, bad news has become good news again. So far this year growth +8.3%, value +4.6%, and S&P +6.0%. Within growth, high P/E names are up the most. Driving this: Fed is signaling a pivot with inflation receding and leading econ indicators turning negative.

“The fourth quarter itself was kind of unspectacular,” Future Fund Managing Partner @garyblack00 says on $TSLA earnings. “The gross margins were weak. If you look back at all of the non-recurring things in the quarter, they actually missed."

"Tesla Boomer Mama writes": So, I got appointed to my first Advisory Board

With inflation data clearly easing (PCE MoM core +0.2% in Dec) the market’s perception of future int rate hikes remains below the Fed’s dot plot, a disconnect that caused the Fed to caution against “unwarranted” loosening of financial conditions in the latest Fed minutes.

Tesla shares will bounce back despite poor delivery numbers, says shareholder Gary Black $tsla

An open letter to Tesla’s Board of Directors - see attached. With $TSLA selling at its lowest forward P/E (37x on WS 2023 EPS) since Covid, with $18.9B in cash and no debt and an investment grade rating, now seems an ideal time for Tesla’s BOD to consider a $10B+ share buyback.

The Future Fund managing partner @garyblack00 and Barron's senior special writer @DowJonesAl discuss how Elon Musk's Twitter turmoil is negatively impacting Tesla stock on @ClamanCountdown

Case for Growth: YTD R1000G is -32% while R1000V -18%. On EV/Sales, growth stocks nearing their lowest multiple since 1960. The trailing return of growth vs value has never been this bad. Once the Fed hints of a lower than exp rate hike, or delays a hike, growth bounces sharply.

Nasdaq continues to oscillate between worrying about inflation/rising rates and the sharp acceleration in Omicron cases, which is triggering shutdowns of restaurants, schools, and places of employment. If this makes you wonder why the Fed is embarking on tightening, so is Nasdaq.

I use a 10yr TY of 2.0% in my 11.6% discount rate (2% 10yr TY, 6% equity risk premium, 1.6x TSLA beta), so my $1,400 $tsla PT won’t change, given the 10yr TY is still just 1.47%.

2/ Fed projected inflation will fall from 5.3% in 2021 to 2.6% in 2022, to 2.3% in 2023. Fed dot plot implies a terminal Fed funds rate of 2.1% by 2024, vs 1.46% (+1.9 bp today) 10yr TY. As indicated earlier, we expect $TSLA to react modestly positive to the Fed announcement.

Fed announced it would double tapering to $30B per month, allowing it to wrap up QE by March and setting the stage for 3 int rate hikes in 2022, economic growth permitting. With bad news baked in prior to the announcement, NDX is rallying (+0.4% vs -0.6% before the decision).

Market’s forecast of med-term inflation higher than in past 20 yrs (why Fed will tighten today). But 10yrTY only 1.44%, so if dot plot today shows rates ending at 1.9% in 2024, high risk curve inverts. IMO, as Covid retreats, infl pressures recede, so rate hikes will be moderate.

5-yr inflation expectations embedded in TIPS (infl-adj vs reg 5-year T-notes) are at their highest in 20 yrs, and higher than before the 2004-06 and 2016-18 tightening cycles. Spreads between 2- and 10-yr Treas are tighter, suggesting less upside for hikes before curve inverts.

Biggest concern among Instit’l PMs surveyed by Bloomberg is now tapering/policy mistake, followed by inflation, and then Covid. Our position remains that inflationary pressures are covid-related (labor/supply shortages), and as Covid retreats, inflationary pressures recede.

$HOG +12% after announcing it will take its electric motorcycle division LiveWire public via a SPAC by AEA-Bridges Impact Corp (ABIC) in 2022, with a potential value of $1.77B. The stock will trade on the NYSE under the ticker “LVW.”

EU yields continue to fall (down 20-25bp past mo) due to rising Covid rates and ECB’s resistance to raising rates in 2022, despite continued 3-4% GDP growth. This and better odds that super dove Brainard replaces dove Powell are keeping US 10yrTY in check (1.59%, -10bp past mo).