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Fossum

@fossumer

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Crypto markets through data and reasoning | Not a maxi | Not emotional | Focused on cycles and opportunities

Joined July 2014
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@fossumer
Fossum
14 days
It means Bitcoin succeeded despite its whales - not because of them. The difference is $BTC didn’t have one founder controlling the narrative, the supply, and the exits. #PulseChain $PLS $PLSX $HEX $ProveX
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@fossumer
Fossum
14 days
So yes - #Bitcoin has a 4-year cycle. Not because of magic. But because Bitcoin’s coded supply tightening aligns with the lagged effects of global monetary policy. Halving sets the supply. Liquidity sets the demand. Together they create the cycle. 13/13
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@fossumer
Fossum
14 days
Which perfectly aligns with Bitcoin’s historical bottom window: ~10-15 months after the cycle top. If October 2025 was the peak, a bottom in fall 2026 fits the pattern exactly. 12/13
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@fossumer
Fossum
14 days
Real liquidity expansion (the kind that fuels the next $BTC bull run) won’t show up until: - QT ends - credit loosens - financial conditions ease That likely lands in mid-to-late 2026. 11/13
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@fossumer
Fossum
14 days
Today the Fed is cutting rates, but early cuts don’t expand liquidity. They signal slowdown while QT is still removing liquidity from the system. This is classic early bear-cycle behavior. 10/13
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@fossumer
Fossum
14 days
Now look at 2024-2026: - Halving in 2024 - 12-18 month expansion window - New ATH in Oct 2025 (exact cycle timing) The cycle didn’t break - it repeated with precision. 9/13
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@fossumer
Fossum
14 days
Examples: - 2014-2015: Fed taper => $BTC bottom - 2018: Rapid hikes + QT => $BTC down 84% - 2022: Fastest tightening ever => $BTC down 78% Liquidity contraction always ends the cycle. 8/13
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@fossumer
Fossum
14 days
Cycles end the same way too - not because the halving “stops working,” but because liquidity peaks and then contracts. Rate hikes and QT drain risk appetite, and $BTC enters its 10-15 month reset phase. 7/13
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@fossumer
Fossum
14 days
And the historical macro lines up perfectly: - 2012-2013: Global QE => liquidity surge => $BTC vertical - 2016-2017: Ultra-low rates + ECB/BOJ stimulus => $BTC to $20k - 2020-2021: Record QE + zero rates => $BTC to $69k Supply tightening + liquidity expansion = bull market. 6/13
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@fossumer
Fossum
14 days
When you combine both forces, the pattern becomes obvious: Halving reduces $BTC supply => liquidity expansion arrives with a lag => demand rises => price accelerates. This is why every cycle rallies for 12-18 months after a halving. 5/13
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@fossumer
Fossum
14 days
Now add the Fed. Monetary policy doesn’t hit markets instantly - rate cuts take 6-12 months before liquidity actually expands. These “lags” are a core feature of the financial system. 4/13
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@fossumer
Fossum
14 days
Start with the halving: every four years, $BTC cuts its new supply in half. Less issuance => less miner sell pressure. It’s Bitcoin’s version of monetary tightening written into code. 3/13
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@fossumer
Fossum
14 days
People say Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle comes from the halving alone. But that’s only half the story. The real engine behind the cycle is Bitcoin’s supply schedule syncing with global liquidity cycles. 2/13
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@fossumer
Fossum
14 days
How Fed monetary policy and #Bitcoin halvings actually work together - and why they create the 4 year $BTC cycle. 1/13
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@fossumer
Fossum
16 days
Richard Heart really meant “delayed gratification”… he just forgot to mention the delay lasts until the afterlife. $HEX isn’t a financial plan - it’s a spiritual journey. $PLS $PLSX $ProveX
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@fossumer
Fossum
17 days
We’re not in a surprise dip - we’re in the exact post-top reset every cycle delivers. The sooner you accept it, the smaller the hit your portfolio will take. $BTC #Bitcoin $ETH #Ethereum $SOL #Solana
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@fossumer
Fossum
17 days
Every cycle ends the same way: people deny the top, chase relief rallies, and mistake volatility for strength. Everyone wants to believe “this time is different,” but the 4-year cycle hit right on schedule. $BTC halving => 12-18 months of expansion => new ATH => trend flips.
@fossumer
Fossum
23 days
You can cope and hope for $250k $BTC or $30k $ETH, but let’s be real - we’re in a bear market. You’ll get those 20% relief rallies, but only after 40% dumps. That’s how downtrends work. Until $BTC finds its bottom, the market won’t flip. Accept the phase, not the fantasy.
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@fossumer
Fossum
17 days
Bragging about a small pump after a 99% drop is like claiming victory because the Titanic briefly floated upward on its way down. $PLS $PLSX $INC
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@fossumer
Fossum
18 days
If the ecosystem needed the community to behave perfectly for the chart to survive, maybe the problem isn’t the community. $PLS $PLSX $HEX $ProveX
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@fossumer
Fossum
19 days
Amazing how $HEX is “better than all the garbage out there”… yet somehow it performed worse than almost all the garbage out there. The market doesn’t price code comments - it prices results.
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