Fossum
@fossumer
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Crypto markets through data and reasoning | Not a maxi | Not emotional | Focused on cycles and opportunities
Joined July 2014
It means Bitcoin succeeded despite its whales - not because of them. The difference is $BTC didn’t have one founder controlling the narrative, the supply, and the exits. #PulseChain $PLS $PLSX $HEX $ProveX
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Which perfectly aligns with Bitcoin’s historical bottom window: ~10-15 months after the cycle top. If October 2025 was the peak, a bottom in fall 2026 fits the pattern exactly. 12/13
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Real liquidity expansion (the kind that fuels the next $BTC bull run) won’t show up until: - QT ends - credit loosens - financial conditions ease That likely lands in mid-to-late 2026. 11/13
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Today the Fed is cutting rates, but early cuts don’t expand liquidity. They signal slowdown while QT is still removing liquidity from the system. This is classic early bear-cycle behavior. 10/13
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Now look at 2024-2026: - Halving in 2024 - 12-18 month expansion window - New ATH in Oct 2025 (exact cycle timing) The cycle didn’t break - it repeated with precision. 9/13
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Examples: - 2014-2015: Fed taper => $BTC bottom - 2018: Rapid hikes + QT => $BTC down 84% - 2022: Fastest tightening ever => $BTC down 78% Liquidity contraction always ends the cycle. 8/13
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Cycles end the same way too - not because the halving “stops working,” but because liquidity peaks and then contracts. Rate hikes and QT drain risk appetite, and $BTC enters its 10-15 month reset phase. 7/13
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And the historical macro lines up perfectly: - 2012-2013: Global QE => liquidity surge => $BTC vertical - 2016-2017: Ultra-low rates + ECB/BOJ stimulus => $BTC to $20k - 2020-2021: Record QE + zero rates => $BTC to $69k Supply tightening + liquidity expansion = bull market. 6/13
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When you combine both forces, the pattern becomes obvious: Halving reduces $BTC supply => liquidity expansion arrives with a lag => demand rises => price accelerates. This is why every cycle rallies for 12-18 months after a halving. 5/13
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Now add the Fed. Monetary policy doesn’t hit markets instantly - rate cuts take 6-12 months before liquidity actually expands. These “lags” are a core feature of the financial system. 4/13
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Start with the halving: every four years, $BTC cuts its new supply in half. Less issuance => less miner sell pressure. It’s Bitcoin’s version of monetary tightening written into code. 3/13
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People say Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle comes from the halving alone. But that’s only half the story. The real engine behind the cycle is Bitcoin’s supply schedule syncing with global liquidity cycles. 2/13
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Richard Heart really meant “delayed gratification”… he just forgot to mention the delay lasts until the afterlife. $HEX isn’t a financial plan - it’s a spiritual journey. $PLS $PLSX $ProveX
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Every cycle ends the same way: people deny the top, chase relief rallies, and mistake volatility for strength. Everyone wants to believe “this time is different,” but the 4-year cycle hit right on schedule. $BTC halving => 12-18 months of expansion => new ATH => trend flips.
You can cope and hope for $250k $BTC or $30k $ETH, but let’s be real - we’re in a bear market. You’ll get those 20% relief rallies, but only after 40% dumps. That’s how downtrends work. Until $BTC finds its bottom, the market won’t flip. Accept the phase, not the fantasy.
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Bragging about a small pump after a 99% drop is like claiming victory because the Titanic briefly floated upward on its way down. $PLS $PLSX $INC
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If the ecosystem needed the community to behave perfectly for the chart to survive, maybe the problem isn’t the community. $PLS $PLSX $HEX $ProveX
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Amazing how $HEX is “better than all the garbage out there”… yet somehow it performed worse than almost all the garbage out there. The market doesn’t price code comments - it prices results.
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