Paul Riley
@footballfactman
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Data, Recruitment and Strategy Consultant. Head of Recruitment @SJK_Seinajoki 🇫🇮
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Joined May 2012
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Dunno about anyone else but I'm up for Moise Kean to get a fresh start at Everton.
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Fairly amusing that clubs like Everton and Spurs think the likes of Potter and Wilder are beneath them.
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New! Create your own basic xG model in 20 minutes
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Premier League shot stopping rankings (based on angle and distance of shot on target faced)
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Top chance creators in open play. Expected assists and actual assists
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Everton.
Save money and heartache by simply telling Silva to play Iwobi instead of Sigurdsson and either DCL or Kean up front rather than Tosun.
It's not fvcking hard.
Merry Christmas!
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Nobody in the Prem profiles quite like Nabil Fekir in terms of passing patterns. Nearest is somebody like David Silva. Fekir can play.
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Richarlison trending
Never won without him til this week
Knocked into concussion last week and back in as soon as
Always pulled his tripe out
Hopefully he does get sold to a proper club and we buy some more overpriced ageing garbage to replace him
Blerts
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Everton's successful transformation to 343 yesterday after a week's training was pretty remarkable.
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You should probably read the best analytics piece of the year. It's with a top level coach who went to the World Cup and has signed a deal with his national team for the next 4 years
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VAR is like the EU
Great idea in principle that only the English are daft enough to stick to the clipboard warrior rules with to the nth degree
While the English blame the thing rather than their own anal retentive implementation of it
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Could have been more positive in this game says Rio
Only the results have stopped this being the narrative since the start.
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Liverpool's dominance on this metric is ridic. Barely conceding shots on target worth talking about in any game...
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New! Inspired by others, I wrote some words about measuring 'pressing':
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Top direct creators in open play - expected assists...
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Team and Player xG data for Premier League, Serie A, La Liga and Bundesliga 2016/17:
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Forget the oppo and the daft pen. Huge credit to Southgate for creating an environment where the team wants to play for the first time in two decades. Didn’t think he had it in him.
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Ooh look. When you take quality of shots into account, Karius is actually doing better than you'd expect the avg PL keeper to
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Virgil van Dijk shows remarkable talent for being in the wrong place at the wrong time in my Forster video:
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Ozil not in the Top 20 open play creators this season. Yet to record an open play assist.
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I blogged for the first time in 4 years:
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New! The Data Scout - Gylfi Sigurdsson v Ross Barkley Part One
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Cenk gets a go with Iwobi at 10 but Kean starts out wide and is hauled at half time when it doesn't work out
The thinking is...non existent.
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I'm a huge promoter of xG and use it constantly. But using the VVD v Sissoko chance as an example highlights the basic problem with quoting an actual number in single situations. My model says 11% too but it's blind. Its a WAY bigger chance than that. Use your eyes. And brains.
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The immediate collective dislike for Iwobi amongst Everton fans who took 3 yrs to wake up to Sigurdsson and still think Gomes is good.
🤔
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While an effective high press often reduces the number of shots a team concede, a frequent by product is allowing easier chances when the press is broken. Liverpool and Chelsea avoid this, but City and Everton don't...
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You have to laugh at Britishers pointing the fingers at Americans. If they held an election here tomorrow, the Tories would still win...
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Imagine this Everton squad without Richarlison
Imagine Everton trying to replace Richarlison if it happens this week
Snort
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Bundesliga creativity. Expected assists based on where the final pass before shot was played from and to...
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New! Interview with Dan Altman about his time at Swansea and DC United
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My dominance table requires a whole expected goal to count as an actual goal. So 0.99 v 1.99 would be 0-1.
What happens when you do it for shots on target only explains Liverpool's dominance this year
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Championship Shot Stopper Rankings (based on angle, distance, type of shot)
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New! Why Possession Value is bollocks
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I've extended/completed the look at Sigurdsson and Barkley. Now with even more geeky stats:
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Best of the aggressive, direct, ball movers this season:
John McGinn
Kevin De Bruyne
Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg
Jordan Henderson
James Maddison
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New! A few words on passing ‘analytics’
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If ur interested in football analytics I became aware of this yesterday
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An explanation of expected goals that MOTD were showing
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League 2 Shot Stopper Rankings. Based on angle and distance of shots on target faced...
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I mean...Grealish made ALL the difference then didn't he?
Like a magic wand for England's chronic problem in build up.
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Here we go:
1. Sidibe brings more than Coleman going forward. But he'll be injured in 5 minutes if we keep playing at that pace
2. If we're playing at decent tempo, Schneiderlin can't be playing
3. Judging your team against West Ham at home is probably a bad idea
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People often ask how xG goes over time. Here's the Premier League since 2009
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Lads. He elbows the ball jumping up like an eejit not even looking. it blocks the ball. its a pen. the end. forever.
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To help people put things into context we put together 10 years worth of data to look at the biggest shooters in the Premier League. Kane has a big enough sample to say he's a better all round finisher than Aguero. Discuss.
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The interim manager ruins ur multi million pound asset for the sake of five minutes...
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Topping the passing model for Premier League midfielders who didn't play it safe all game long this season?
1. Jordan Henderson (by a lot)
2. Youri Tielemens
3. James Ward-Prowse
4. John McGinn
5. James Madison
6. Oli Norwood
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League Two Shot Stopper Rankings based on angle and distance of shot on target:
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Back in October, when I wrote my new manager shortlist blog using the data, Ancelotti came up on both pressing and xG metrics with his Napoli side.
I ruled him out with us having 'no chance' of getting him.
Here we are.
It's a funny old game.
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DoF, army of scouts, banks of data, tons of software = Andros Townsend
Pfffft
😂
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My model's best progressive passers from midfield areas this season in the Prem
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I wrote something NEW!
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Meunier. 28yrs old earlynext season. Good cross on him going forward. Poor defender. Big wage. Pure Everton.
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300 million pounds worth of buys and this is ur midfield two after 3yrs
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New! On goalkeeper data, scouting and evidence based coaching
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Top Direct Creators in League Two
Wes Hoolahan: splitting defences through the middle...
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Underlying numbers takes:
1. Southampton will climb the table on the back of an elite defence
2. Crystal Palace should not sack Pardew
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looks like Charlie Adam's goal was the only shot on target from a player's own half all season
http://t.co/Nvll6hK8UD
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I mean, how is a defence supposed to play offside when they've got to judge who's interfering with play as well with ziyech here?
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If Guardiola can get players to suit the system next season...
If Mourinho gets a bit more luck in front of goal...
#if
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To be fair, fireworks being set off to celebrate Brexit is apt.
Crash, bang, a smoking burned out descent, and a total waste of money all told.
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Sandro didn’t work out at Everton. Here’s a big reason why. He isn’t what they thought he was
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I wrote a stats driven Premier League Handbook for my kids. The first part is here so you can show it to yours
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I was bored so i made a video especially for the evil number wizards (complete with spelling mistakes)
http://t.co/bDpp0xZhKu
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Expected Assists Leaderboard. Which players are creating the chances most likely to be taken? Who relies on set pieces rather than open play?
#creativity
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Wonder what David Raya was doing for Joe Bryan's goal last night? Wonder no more...
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Immediate takes after watching 6 minutes of highlights:
1. Only Premier League could execute a brilliant tool like VAR this badly
2. Mo Salah is at Bergkamp levels of constant brilliance
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And here are the viz you need to go with the pressing bit... Enjoy!
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New! Download both xA AND xG data via the links on my Tableau Dashboards
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if you only ever listen to one football analytics podcast in ur life make it this one:
NEW PODCAST:
S2E5 - interview with Christofer Clemens, head of analysis & scouting at the German national team.
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Model says that in 2009/10 Mikel Arteta was the best passer of the ball in open play in the PL
Cesc Fabregas the best direct creator of chances in open play
And pound for pound Antonio Valencia was an absolute all round colossus
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If you think the problem with this performance tonight is Sterling, Mount or Foden, watch a different sport x
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Arteta makes sense under a DoF model
More of a coach than manager
Been learning from one of the best
Likely to want to play decent togger
Knowledge of league as both player and coach
Had style AND grit as a player
Extremely popular fan galvaniser
Young and hungry
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I've made the Premier League shot map more customisable. Filter by team, player, keeper, location:
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Meet Bez Lubala. 22 yrs old. Crawley Town. 126 shots this season in League Two. 30 more than the next guy. Crazy total for someone this young.
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Leicester now have the biggest overperforming striker in terms of xG
And
The biggest overperforming keeper in terms of xG on target
As both these things cool off those pts already on the board will be crucial
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Ppl often ask bloggers: How is analytics actionable for clubs? Hull did all these things this week
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New! It's back and better than ever! Premier League 2018/19 Shot and xG Dashboard
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