Football Meets Data
@fmeetsdata
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Platform for applied football statistics | Probabilities, rankings & simulations | ๐ง [email protected] | ๐ Simulator: https://t.co/j5i3tNqI6C
Joined October 2023
๐๐ฅ More leagues added to our ๐ FMD Simulator! โ
๐จ๐พ Cypriot First Division โ
๐ฆ๐ฟ Azerbaijan Premier League โ
๐ธ๐ฐ First Football League โ
๐ฎ๐ฑ Israeli Premier League โ
๐ง๐ฆ Premijer liga BiH โ
๐ฒ๐ฐ MFL ๐ Full list of domestic leagues currently included in FMD Simulator:
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๐จ BREAKING! ๐ฅ We have strong indication that FIFA will CHANGE the seeding principle for teams that will qualify for WC 2026 via Play-offs! ๐ At WC 2022 in Qatar, all PO teams were automatically placed into Pot 4, regardless of their FIFA pts. ๐ But for WC 2026, FIFA is
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๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ EFL Championship โ Round 15 probability shifts ๐ฅ Biggest change in Top 2 chances: ๐ +5% ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Middlesbrough ๐ โ7% ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Stoke City ๐ช Biggest change in Top 6 chances: ๐ +7% ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Ipswich Town ๐ โ6% ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Stoke City ๐ Coventry City now have a massive 87% chance to finish top 2
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Arsenal's ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ 10-game winning streak ends in Sunderland ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ!
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๐ฐ UEFA prize money added in ๐ UEL Matchday 4: (โฌ450k for a win, โฌ150k for a draw; โฌ1k from undistributed amounts from 4 draws in MD4) +โฌ451k ๐ท๐ธ Crvena zvezda +โฌ451k ๐ฌ๐ท PAOK +โฌ451k ๐จ๐ญ Basel +โฌ451k ๐ฉ๐ช Stuttgart +โฌ451k ๐ง๐ช Genk +โฌ451k ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Aston Villa +โฌ451k ๐ช๐ธ Celta
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๐บ Visualization of UEFA prize money distribution across 108 clubs in ๐ต๐ ๐ข league stages (as of 8 Nov). ๐ต UCL: ๐บ โฌ71.3m ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Man City ๐ป โฌ21.2m ๐ฐ๐ฟ Kairat Almaty ๐ UEL: ๐บ โฌ18.0m ๐น๐ท Fenerbahรงe ๐ป โฌ6.5m ๐ธ๐ช Malmรถ ๐ข UECL: ๐บ โฌ7.2m ๐ฎ๐น Fiorentina ๐ป โฌ4.1m ๐ฒ๐น Hamrun
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๐ข UECL prize money rankings (as of 8 Nov) โช๏ธ๐ฎ๐น Fiorentina still leads the prize money table โช๏ธ๐บ๐ฆ Shakhtar, ๐ฉ๐ช Mainz jump over โฌ7m! โช๏ธ๐บ๐ฆ Dynamo Kyiv, ๐ธ๐ฎ Celje, ๐น๐ท Samsunspor climbed over โฌ6m! โช๏ธ๐ฝ๐ฐ Drita, ๐ท๐ด Univ Craiova, ๐จ๐ฟ Sigma all jump over โฌ5m! ๐ถ Detailed analysis of
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๐ UEL prize money rankings (as of 7 Nov) โช๏ธ๐ช๐ธ Betis enters Top 5, ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Aston Villa enters Top 10! โช๏ธ๐ท๐ธ Crvena zvezda surpassed the โฌ15m threshold! โช๏ธ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Aston Villa, ๐ญ๐บ Ferencvaros climb over โฌ14m! โช๏ธ๐ฉ๐ช Freiburg climbs over โฌ13m! โช๏ธ๐จ๐ฟ Viktoria Plzen, ๐ฉ๐ฐ Midtjylland surpassed
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๐ญ๐บ Ferencvaros has started ๐ UEL very well, sitting on 3rd place with 10 pts after 4 rounds. ๐ They're not safe in Top 24 yet, but are close. One more point should do it (99.3%), two at most. To ensure seeded status in ๐ KO Playoff (Top 16) they likely need 4 more pts
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With 9โฃ pts in opening 3 rounds, ๐ธ๐ฎ Celje is one of the bigger favorites to reach ๐ข UECL Top 8. โ How many points will they actually need? ๐ฏ Our Simulator shows the following % for Top 8 specifically for ๐ธ๐ฎ Celje: if 1โฃ1โฃ pts = 11.6% to qualify if 1โฃ2โฃ pts = 50.5% if 1โฃ3โฃ
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๐ต๐ฑ Legia's most likely opponent in ๐ข UECL KO Playoff round (if they qualify) is - ๐ต๐ฑ Jagiellonia! ๐ And vice versa. ๐ Most likely opponents for ALL 108 TEAMS in๐ต UCL ๐ UEL ๐ข UECL available in our ๐ FMD Simulator
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[๐ต UCL rebalancing race update] โ๏ธ SEVEN clubs from the list increased their coefficient this week! โช๏ธ๐ฌ๐ท Olympiacos moved within half a point to ๐ณ๐ด Bodรธ/Glimt! โช๏ธ๐ฌ๐ท PAOK overtook ๐บ๐ฆ Shakhtar! โช๏ธ๐ญ๐บ Ferencvaros overtook ๐ฆ๐ฟ Qarabag! โช๏ธ๐ฉ๐ฐ Midtjylland jumped 2 places up, overtaking
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It's very visible on the chart how the ๐ข UECL Top 8 positions are likely to be filled by 8 of these 9 clubs: ๐ฉ๐ช Mainz ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Crystal Palace ๐ธ๐ฎ Celje ๐ซ๐ท Strasbourg ๐ช๐ธ Rayo Vallecano ๐น๐ท Samsunspor ๐ฎ๐น Fiorentina ๐บ๐ฆ Shakhtar ๐จ๐พ AEK Larnaca Then there's a huge gap and then come ๐ต๐ฑ
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๐ฏ Evolution of the Top 8 race in ๐ UEL. ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Aston Villa, ๐ฉ๐ฐ Midtjylland, ๐ซ๐ท Lyon, ๐ฉ๐ช Freiburg have separated themselves from the pack. ๐ช๐ธ Betis, ๐ช๐ธ Celta, ๐ต๐น Porto hover around 50%. The rest are <50%, with ๐ต๐น Braga currently projected to hold that last Top 8 ticket. ๐จ Full
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๐ To finish 1st in ๐ข UECL league stage (as of 7 Nov): 26% ๐ฉ๐ช Mainz 18% ๐ธ๐ฎ Celje 13% ๐ช๐ธ Rayo Vallecano 11% ๐ซ๐ท Strasbourg 10% ๐น๐ท Samsunspor 8% ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Crystal Palace 7% ๐จ๐พ AEK Larnaca ...
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๐ To finish bottom (36th) of ๐ข UECL league stage (as of 7 Nov): 32% ๐ฎ๐ช Shelbourne 18% ๐ฒ๐น Hamrun Spartans 16% ๐ฎ๐ธ Breidablik 13% ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ Aberdeen 12% ๐ฆ๐น Rapid Wien 8% ๐ธ๐ฐ Slovan Bratislava 1% all others combined
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๐ To finish bottom (36th) of ๐ UEL table (as of 7 Nov): 40% ๐ฎ๐ฑ Maccabi Tel-Aviv 25% ๐ธ๐ช Malmรถ 16% ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ Rangers 10% ๐ณ๐ฑ Utrecht 9% all others combined
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๐๏ธ Most attended matches per competition (as of 7 Nov): ๐ต Champions League: 81,365 ๐ฉ๐ช B. Dortmund - ๐ช๐ธ Athletic Club 76,521 ๐ช๐ธ Real Madrid - ๐ฎ๐น Juventus 75,000 ๐ฉ๐ช Bayern - ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Chelsea ๐ Europa League: 61,561 ๐ฎ๐น Roma - ๐ซ๐ท Lille 60,000 ๐ฉ๐ช Stuttgart - ๐ณ๐ฑ Feyenoord ๐ฅ๐ 58,000 ๐ฉ๐ช
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๐๏ธ Attendances in ๐ UEL Matchday 4 (6 Nov) 60,000 ๐ฉ๐ช Stuttgart โ ๐ณ๐ฑ Feyenoord 55,836 ๐ช๐ธ Real Betis โ ๐ซ๐ท Lyon 41,847 ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ Rangers โ ๐ฎ๐น Roma 32,711 ๐ท๐ธ Crvena zvezda โ ๐ซ๐ท Lille 29,429 ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Aston Villa โ ๐ฎ๐ฑ Maccabi TA 23,053 ๐ณ๐ฑ Utrecht โ ๐ต๐น Porto 22,508 ๐ฎ๐น Bologna โ ๐ณ๐ด Brann 21,925 ๐จ๐ญ
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Midtjylland ๐ฉ๐ฐ have played 10 European matches this season. They won all of them except the first one v ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ Hibernian in ๐ UEL Q2 on 24 July. Since then, 9 consecutive wins!
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