This poll was initiated solely by Find Out Now and not funded by any third party. Full write-up and data tables here:.

We have recently published an article ‘How pollsters may be understating the Reform vote’ which explains our VI methodology in greater detail. Webinar of findings also available at same link:

Presenting the results as a rolling average instead evens out week-on-week distortions

Note, due to the margin of error (the statistical range within which the true result is likely to fall, usually 2-3% for opinion polls), small week-on-week changes in results may be caused more by random sampling variation, rather than reflect genuine shifts in public opinion.

Find Out Now voting intention:. 🟦 Reform UK: 32% (+2).🔴 Labour: 20% (-).🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-1).🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1).🟢 Greens: 9% (-1). Changes from 30th July.[Find Out Now, 6th August, N=2,627]

This poll was initiated solely by Find Out Now and not funded by any third party. Full write-up and data tables here:

We have recently published an article ‘How pollsters may be understating the Reform vote’ which explains our VI methodology in greater detail. Webinar presenting the findings also available at same link:

Presenting the results as a rolling average instead evens out week-on-week distortions

Note, due to the margin of error (the statistical range within which the true result is likely to fall, usually 2-3% for opinion polls), small week-on-week changes in results may be caused more by random sampling variation, rather than reflect genuine shifts in public opinion.

Find Out Now voting intention:.🟦 Reform UK: 30% (-4).🔴 Labour: 20% (-).🔵 Conservatives: 17% (+1).🟠 Lib Dems: 13% (-1).🟢 Greens: 10% (+1). Changes from 23rd July.[Find Out Now, 30th July, N=2,654]

Our webinar 'How pollsters may be understating the Reform vote' begins at 3pm! Please use this viewing link to watch:

Full article by our Head of Research @TyronSurmon can be found here:

Thirdly, false recall. Many Con to Reform switchers misremember voting Reform in 2024. Reasking 2024 GE each survey (rather than holding panel data) understates the extent of Con to Reform switching, and thus the Reform voteshare

Secondly, turnout. Reform supporters are more likely to say they’ll vote than supporters of other parties. Polls assuming high turnout flatten this advantage, reducing Reform’s lead

Firstly, engagement. Reform voters are more likely to have low political attention. Given many online polling panels (but not Find Out Now) over-represent highly engaged respondents, this may be reducing the Reform voteshare

Find Out Now has been a consistent outlier on Reform voting intentions. This is why we think our results best reflect the current state of public opinion in the UK… 🧵.

This poll was initiated solely by Find Out Now and not funded by any third party. Full write-up and data tables here:

We have recently published an article 'How pollsters may be understating the Reform vote' which goes into greater detail on our polling and methodology. Please find here:

Presenting the results as a rolling average instead evens out week-on-week distortions

Note, due to the margin of error (the statistical range within which the true result is likely to fall, usually 2-3% for opinion polls), small week-on-week changes in results may be caused more by random sampling variation, rather than reflect genuine shifts in public opinion.