Ed Zitron
@edzitron
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Newsletter https://t.co/D5qDgUKaNR - Better Offline Podcast - https://t.co/pUoGsuaQTw - Column Business Insider - CEO at https://t.co/5idt8AyPqr - Award-Winning Tech PR
Beautful Las Vegas Nevada
Joined December 2008
Premium newsletter: my AI Mythbusters: There’s no insatiable demand for AI compute, AI is not “getting exponentially better” or “tricking humans,” we haven't “lost control of AI,” AI doomerism is a grift, and there is no “genAI arms race with China.” https://t.co/vWY24LvO8O
wheresyoured.at
I keep trying to think of a cool or interesting introduction to this newsletter, and keep coming back to how fucking weird everything is getting. Two days ago, cloud stalwart Oracle crapped its pants...
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Oh god I missed that this was for paid. So your totally made up whacky math “compute margin” is what, you make 30 cents on the dollar? 70 cents? But it doesn’t say “profitable.” Who’s OpenAI’s accountant? The Riddler? https://t.co/0IWkKrtDJ1
@edzitron "its share of revenue after the cost of running AI models for paying users" Lmao does this metric not even include the cost of compute for nonpaying users? Incredible accounting trick no notes
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Exciting new math just dropped. We all know exactly what this means and that’s why we’re all nodding
We’ve scrutinized OpenAI & Anthropic gross margins this year from @srimuppidi As both inch toward IPOs you’ll also see more about their “compute margins,” starting with this piece
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Nothing to win! Other than “who can have the most GPUs and lose the most in capex or opex”
Why China will win AI in one chart. Power hungry Nvidia chips are not the way forward for the U.S. It is not just the total power advantage. It is the slope.
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Premium newsletter: my AI Mythbusters: There’s no insatiable demand for AI compute, AI is not “getting exponentially better” or “tricking humans,” we haven't “lost control of AI,” AI doomerism is a grift, and there is no “genAI arms race with China.” https://t.co/vWY24LvO8O
wheresyoured.at
I keep trying to think of a cool or interesting introduction to this newsletter, and keep coming back to how fucking weird everything is getting. Two days ago, cloud stalwart Oracle crapped its pants...
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The consequences here are that NVIDIA's theoretical future customers are big data centers full of GPUs, and the only companies that can afford that are funded by debt that banks are no longer interested in providing. Work that out ya little mathematician
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In any case, the large data center campus deals are pretty much always handled by the same banks - JPMorgan, Mitsui, Goldman, Mitsubishi. Changing to Blackstone (unless they intend to fund the entire $10bn?) isn't going to fix the problem of raising debt.
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Who cares, Blue Owl is the literal only company outside of hyperscalers that has put together a data center debt/JV at the scale that "The Barn" campus in Michigan requires. It's doubtful Blackstone swoops in, they do not appear to have done a deal this big for a campus
Michigan regulators approved DTE Energy’s request to fast track power for $ORCL and OpenAI’s planned Stargate data center in Saline Township, a 1.4 gigawatt project. Oracle would pay the costs under the DTE agreement, including minimum monthly charges and a termination fee, and
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Blue Owl pulling out of Michigan is worse than it seems. Related Digital and Blue Owl have worked together before and know each other well, they already raised money for a 1GW data center in Chicago on Sep 30. It's clear that lenders are getting scared. https://t.co/XQ6xxzW4vx
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if you work at nvidia and ever want to talk my signal is ezitron.76, the same goes for anybody who might see or hear anything about warehouses of GPUs, or anyone with insight into any AI companies. I'd love to hear from you!
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OpenAI is allegedly raising "up to $100bn" at a $750bn valuation, and I gotta wonder what the actual point of investing at this stage is for VCs. For a 2x return you'd need a $1.5tr marcap at IPO - that would make OpenAI worth more than TSMC and near Tesla/Meta. Nonsense!
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Turns out this was Reuters acting like something was new that wasn't, false alarm
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At this point you really have to wonder what is being told to investors because if it’s this, well, lol
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Didn’t make $6bn in 2024, sure aren’t making $20bn or even $13bn in 2025, and I don’t even think they have 1.9gw unless they are including Microsoft?
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Here's samsung's, here's SK Hynix's, both several weeks after announcement. Why, if this is supposedly eating up 40% of the world's HBRAM, is neither company acting like it's actually happening? https://t.co/t3T5Tvsomn
https://t.co/GRffUrsLbd
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beginning to think the OpenAI "40% of all RAM" story is bullshit. SK Hynix mentioned OpenAI once on its Oct 29 earnings call but didn't change guidance, same with Samsung, who didn't mention OpenAI at all. It's a "Letter of Intent" and nothing seems to actually be happening.
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Blue owl to Oracle
A major move in Miami: the Dolphins are benching QB Tua Tagovailoa and turning to Quinn Ewers as their new starting QB, per sources. Ewers’ first start comes Sunday vs. the Bengals.
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