I studied the last ten years of UK stock market history to identify the top 🔟 multi-baggers. I wanted to assess their common traits to raise the odds of buying potential multi-baggers over the next decade. Here's a 🧵 with some key insights. 1/

📉 How a simple rule could have saved you from Warpaint’s 54% collapse… Today, Warpaint London (#W7L), issued its second profit warning of 2025: • Profit before tax: £6.4m (-41%) • EPS: 8.5p (-13%) • Guidance cut for FY25 • Share price down ~20% today But investors who

I'll be writing up some new insights next week on this topic on @Stockopedia which explains why this happens. So stay tuned. In the meantime, if you missed my thread from yesterday - here's more on this topic. https://t.co/LRICPrRJ1Q

Share prices tend to continue to drift in the direction of the surprise over 6 months or more. You also see a tendency for stocks to announce multiple "ahead of expectations" announcements after their first. Here's an example from Greencore in 2024:

As trading statement season continues, it's important to understand the power of the "drift". This is the tendency of share prices to continue in the direction of earnings surprises. Resarch by Brandt et al "Earnings Announcements are Full of Surprises" illustrates

Two stocks that jumped 20% plus in the last week are McBride #MCB and Reach #RCH Will they or won't they experience the same levels of drift?

2. “Ahead/Below Expectations” Phrases Matter Companies reporting “significantly ahead of expectations” on average jump the most on the day, and they experience the strongest continued share price drift in the same direction.

1. Larger First-Day Jumps => Stronger Share Price Returns Large jumps indicate that current expectations are wrong. This is regardless of whether the actual company announcement is “inline”, “ahead” or “below” official expectations.

It's Trading Statement season. What should you do if a company announces ahead or below expectations? I've rummaged through 2,699 trading statements in the last 2 years to find out... Here are some key insights: 📈👇

I'm always interested in the question "how many stocks should you own?" This chart is from one time period (April 2017 to April 2018), but it's indicative. < 5 stocks - massive variability 10 stocks - much diminished downside 20 stocks - tighter range of outcomes

Well I guess that settles it....

Look at all those lovely clear trends.

I've just posted an article to the Stockopedia site that shares the top 20 stocks qualifying for this "Trended Momentum" strategy now. Several gold miners and a copper miner... as well industrials, financials and consumer stocks. Check it out here https://t.co/EMKLE6zTNW

I had a great nerd-out on beating the market with @pensioncraft in this podcast published yesterday. My experience, QVM, buybacks, dilution, avoiding mistakes, portfolio construction, liquidity, Magnificent 7, indexing, mastery and more. Listen here: https://t.co/kNrWwnBeSy

The current portfolio includes stocks you might expect - #RR. #W7L #MER - and some I've never reviewed. This holds some lessons for stock picking - smooth trending charts preferred! I'll write this up @Stockopedia soon. Original paper is here - https://t.co/erDvLFv5Gv 6/6

Since April 2013 (when my data starts), an annually rebalanced portfolio of these stocks in the UK would have returned 383%. That's a 14.8% annualised capital return. (divis and costs excluded). And only 2 down years. 5/6

I scripted this up with my own twist for UK stocks. How about if we look at 80+ StockRank shares? (330 shares) Take the top 20% best recent performers in that bucket (66 shares) Then sort by the trend clarity to form a 20 stock portfolio. Essentially it's this set...

It turns out that the clearest trending stocks are the strongest performers. Outperformance peaks at around an 8 month holding period... but persists a long time. They report an 11.34% annualised return "more than double that of a traditional momentum strategy". 3/6

The strategy looks for the top 20% of recent price gainers, and further filters to those with the clearest trend (using the R-squared of a linear regression). It's an obvious idea - price path A below is a smoother trend than B - but which (on average) outperforms? 2/6

I've been reading this great recent paper titled "Trending Momentum". It's a simple concept - buy recent winners that have the clearest price trend. I thought I'd have a look at how much this approach might enhance returns to high ranked shares at @Stockopedia It's

Well done to the @Stockopedia team, and thanks to all subscribers who voted for us 👍