ecoinometrics
@ecoinometrics
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Price range for Bitcoin in the 4th halving cycle:
upper bound ~ $4,500,000
lower bound ~ $140,000
That is *if* Bitcoin ends up following a growth trajectory in the range of the previous cycles.
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When you think you are late, you probably aren't.
I'm talking about investing in the exponential age of course.
Let me give you an example.
Do you know what this chart is?
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Right now most groups are still accumulating coins. That's good for a sustained
#Bitcoin
rally.
As long as we don't enter a blue zone, there is no reason to worry about the price action.
See for yourself 👇
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1/ Good news. Compared to February, when
#Bitcoin
crossed $50k for the first time, the on-chain dynamic has changed:
🔵February, less and less people were accumulating.
🟠Now, more and more people are accumulating.
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#Bitcoin
after the Halving
May 10, 2021
363 days after the 3rd halving.
#BTC
at $57,361.
On track to reach
@100trillionUSD
S2FX target at $288k.
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1K
#Bitcoin
is above $60k. Of course that's not the first time.
There is a big difference though:
🔵 In March/April most people were selling the top.
🟠 This time most people are accumulating!
Probably nothing 👀
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#Bitcoin
has had a continuous week of both the whales and the small fish accumulating coins together.
Probably nothing... 📈🧐👇 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴
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#Bitcoin
is making its way towards $50k and on-chain data shows that most buckets of addresses continue to accumulate coins.
That's a sign this breakout move is sustainable.
See for yourself 👇
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#Bitcoin
Risk Level
Nov. 27, 2021
The aggregate risk score measures whether or not the market is overheated.
Tl;dr it isn't.
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Seems that the whales addresses like
#Bitcoin
at $38k.
Starting to see some cluster of 🔴🔴🔴🔴
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Previous Bitcoin halving events have coincided with bull markets ramping up.
But will the macro conditions be ripe for that next year in May?
~ If we are past the initial shock of a recession.
~ If a spot BTC ETF is approved.
~ If QE is back on the menu.
Then the planets will
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MicroStrategy. Winning.
That's it. That's the tweet.
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Bitcoin isn’t what it used to be.
Over the last three cycles BTC went from being a volatile asset with long periods of extreme volatility to being about as volatile as NVIDIA or Tesla.
The average volatility of Bitcoin hasn’t changed much from cycle to cycle.
But the right
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#Bitcoin
Risk Level
Oct. 21, 2021
The aggregate risk score measures whether or not the market is overheated. Blue is low risk, red is high risk.
The current risk profile is typical of the parabolic moves. This is a good sign. 👇
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#Bitcoin
Risk Level
Oct. 24, 2021
The aggregate risk measures whether or no the market is overheated. Blue is low risk, red is high risk.
Risk at 47%... this is not what a top looks like. 👇
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#Bitcoin
whales and small fish... two different worlds right now.
The small fish 🐟 are accumulating like there is no tomorrow while the whales 🐳 are distributing.
Without the whales I doubt there is enough momentum for a sustained trend upward. 📉🤔👇
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The whales are done buying
#Bitcoin
, we are left with the small fish stacking sats.
So we are back in the blue zone... 📉🧐👇
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{1/5} The whales are buying. The small fish are buying. That's all good for
#Bitcoin
.
📈🧐👇... but...
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For those who are worried that they've missed the
#Bitcoin
boat: no.
You are still early, the asymmetric potential remains. 👇
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Fun fact about dollar cost averaging: the frequency at which you DCA has very little impact on performance.
If you had DCA the SP500 from 2012 to now:
- $400 monthly ➡️ $33k in profit
- $100 weekly ➡️ $32k in profit
- $20 daily ➡️ $34k in profit
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Now I don't want to jinx it, but if we are this far away from the 200 weeks moving average then
#Bitcoin
probably isn't in a bear market. 📈🧐👇
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Less than a year ago MicroStrategy was down -50% on its Bitcoin holdings.
Today they are up +25%.
That might not feel particularly big as ROI goes. But don’t forget MSTR is operating at scale.
They control 158k BTC… so this 25% return puts them one billion dollars in the
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MicroStrategy is on its way to control 1% of the total Bitcoin supply.
MSTR just bought another 14,620 BTC meaning they control a total of 189,150 BTC.
That’s the equivalent of 0.9% of the total amount of Bitcoins or 17% of the coins controlled by Satoshi Nakamoto.
And you
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Bitcoin is ahead of the previous bear markets.
At the same stage of the bear market Bitcoin:
- is down 40% in the current sequence.
- was down 80% in the bear market of the 2nd halving cycle.
- was down 65% in the bear market of the 1st halving cycle.
You can thank the
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So far so good. The whales and small fish addresses are still accumulating
#Bitcoin
on a one-month basis.
📈🧐👇🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴
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It has been the same story for weeks in the
#Bitcoin
market, so here is a quick update:
🟠 Small fish are stacking sats.
🔵 Whales aren't.
That's it. 📉🧐👇
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#Bitcoin
's whales and small fish hodlings are up at the same time.
We haven't seen that in a while. 📈🧐👇
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Sorry to break it to you, but dollar cost averaging isn’t the ultimate investment strategy.
If you are looking to maximize your return on investment, look elsewhere.
Let's see why and how to improve it.
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Bitcoin is pumping on hopes spot ETFs are around the corner.
Good news for sure.
But don't expect BTC to go up and to the right in a straight line.
It never does.
If you are new to this game, just look at how this bear market compares to the old ones.
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One Bitcoin = $700,000.
That’s what it would take for Bitcoin to catch up to gold.
The total market size of physical gold is something like $13 trillion.
By comparison Bitcoin is only worth about $500 billion.
But Bitcoin is growing relatively fast while gold hasn’t really
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@BTC_Archive
For scale this is what Terra's
#Bitcoin
hodlings might end up looking like at $10b. 🔴🧐👇
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Small fish and whales addresses stacking sats.
Three red dots. 🔴🔴🔴
📈🤔👇
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Historically speaking, when the market is in Extreme Fear
#Bitcoin
is more likely to bounce back up than to drop down further.
See for yourself (h/t to
@cryptopou
for the original idea behind the chart) 📈🧐👇
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MicroStrategy starts buying Bitcoin in August 2020 at the initiative of Michael Saylor.
Since then:
- Bitcoin is up 448%
- MSTR stock is up 614%
- They hold 193k BTC with a ROI of 100%
I believe the technical term for that is "winning".
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Arizona Iced Tea is the OG stablecoin. Redeem a refreshing drink for 99 cents at your local convenience store. Holding the peg since 1994.
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So far 2023 has been the least volatile year for Bitcoin over the last ten years.
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What's a reasonable target for
#Bitcoin
in the next bull market?
For scale here are what different BTC values mean in terms of market size:
• BTC at $20k => market size $500bn
• BTC at $119k => Financial gold
• BTC at $476k => All gold
• BTC at $2m => US housing market
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The Federal Reserve’s stated goal is to get inflation back at 2%.
Their main tool for that: make you poor. 🧵
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@PeterSchiff
Thanks
@PeterSchiff
for reminding everyone that you don't need to buy one full
#Bitcoin
to start investing.
Stacking sats regularly is a great way to start.
For reference, today you can get 18,000 satoshis for the price of one Big Mac.
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The Federal Reserve is messing up with the housing market.
The goal: make the average US citizen poorer.
Here is how they achieve that. 🧵
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The truth is, the effect of the fastest rate hike in history hasn’t filtered through the real economy yet.
In fact, we are just reaching the point where the tightening is about to hit most businesses hard.
Here’s how the monetary policy flows:
- Phase 1: Fed hike rates
- Phase
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What happens if you remove the 5 best performing days of each
#Bitcoin
halving cycle?
1st cycle -> lose 74% of the total growth.
2nd cycle -> lose 61% of the total growth.
3rd cycle -> lose 43% of the total growth (so far).
So you better be hodling all the time... 👇
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If you think Bitcoin is up for another parabolic move in the next bull run, then buying now isn’t a bad idea.
You are not going to see 100x returns like you did after 2011 and 2015.
But 10x~30x, that’s not impossible. 👇
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777 days after the 3rd
#Bitcoin
halving and nowhere near anything close to the growth trajectory of the previous halving cycles. 📉🧐👇
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MicroStrategy bought another large amount of Bitcoins.
16,130 BTC for ~$593m
They control 0.8% of the max supply or the equivalent of 16% of Satoshi’s stake.
And you can bet Michael Saylor isn’t done with it.
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1/ Here is a breakdown of who is hodling
#Bitcoin
:
🟠 ETF-like products hold 4.1% of the supply.
🟠 Private companies hold 1.6% of the supply.
🟠 Government entities hold 1.2% of the supply.
🟠 Public companies hold 0.9% of the supply.
(h/t to
@BTCtreasuries
for the data)📈🧐👇
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The whales and the small fish are pulling in the same direction. In principle that's good for
#Bitcoin
.
But we'll need more than one red dot to confirm that this is a turning point.
Let's keep an eye on it. 📈🧐👇
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