Price range for Bitcoin in the 4th halving cycle:. upper bound ~ $4,500,000.lower bound ~ $140,000. That is *if* Bitcoin ends up following a growth trajectory in the range of the previous cycles.

More borrowing. Higher rates. No plan to reverse course. This is how you debase a currency over time. Follow @ecoinometrics for more data-driven insights on Bitcoin and macro.

The U.S. debt keeps climbing and now the interest bill is surging too. Debt has grown by $1.5T per year on average for two decades. But today, the average interest rate on that debt is at its highest since the 2008 crisis. That’s why capital is flowing into hard assets,

Bitcoin is already at an all-time high, and the macro backdrop is shifting into a full risk-on regime. As long as ETF inflows remain strong, it’s just a matter of time before the price catches up to the model. Follow @ecoinometrics for more data-driven insights on Bitcoin and.

ETF flows continue to support a Bitcoin breakout. As of today, our ETF flows model puts the expected price of Bitcoin at $119K, and the range of likely outcomes is still trending higher.

Bitcoin is a rare asset: It’s a growth play and a hedge against fiat debasement. The only thing it’s not? A safe haven. But hey, you can’t do everything. Follow @ecoinometrics for more data-driven insights on Bitcoin and macro.

Bitcoin remains firmly in the risk-on asset category. Over the past 12 months, it’s maintained a moderate correlation to the NASDAQ 100, right around its five-year average. At the same time, it has stayed largely uncorrelated to gold and bonds. That’s why this risk-on

Whether you’re looking at Bitcoin or gold, one thing is clear: 2025 is shaping up to be another strong year for hard assets. Follow @ecoinometrics for more data-driven insights on Bitcoin and macro.

Bitcoin ETFs are closing the gap with gold. Year-to-date, they’ve captured 70% of gold’s net inflows. That’s a solid rebound after a slow start to the year.

With no sign of labor market weakness, the Fed has little reason to rush into rate cuts. For Bitcoin and other risk assets, that kind of macro stability is a green light. Follow @ecoinometrics for more data-driven insights on Bitcoin and macro.

The U.S. labor market is holding steady. Unemployment just came in at 4.1%, right in the low 4% range it’s been stuck in for over a year. That’s historically low, and more importantly, it’s stable.

ETF flows have been tightly correlated with Bitcoin’s price action since the ETFs launched last year. So the fact that Bitcoin’s price is now supported by rising institutional flows is a key signal you can’t ignore. Follow @ecoinometrics for more data-driven insights on Bitcoin.

Bitcoin ETF flows are lining up behind a breakout. With rolling 30-day inflows nearing 50K BTC and rising, you’d expect more upside for Bitcoin’s price. Our ETF flow-to-price model suggests an expected target of $117,000.

The truth is that Bitcoin is no more volatile than mega-cap tech stocks like Nvidia or Tesla. And that’s been the case for more than two years already. Follow @ecoinometrics for more data-driven insights on Bitcoin and macro.

Bitcoin is getting close to a breakout and a new all-time high, yet its volatility is at a two-year low. More than that, last week’s volatility ranked in the bottom 10% of the range over the last ten years. It’s hard to complain about Bitcoin being too volatile in those

Every time Bitcoin flows accelerate, Ethereum reacts late and weak. That’s not about access. It’s about narrative: Bitcoin has a clear narrative, Ethereum doesn’t. Follow @ecoinometrics for data-driven insights on Bitcoin and macro.

Bitcoin is pulling in institutional flows. Ethereum isn’t. Since the launch of ETH ETFs, cumulative flows have lagged well behind BTC in terms of size, consistency and momentum.

And you’re not even paying for that outperformance with excess volatility. Over the same period, Bitcoin and gold also lead on risk-adjusted returns. Follow @ecoinometrics for more data-driven insights on Bitcoin and macro.

Bitcoin and gold have held the top spot for 12-month returns for two years straight and they’re still far ahead of the major equity indices. That kind of performance isn’t unusual for Bitcoin. But for gold, it’s a rare signal of sustained demand for hard assets.

The key here: none of these data points are trending in a way that would force the Fed to change course. As long as the Fed continues its slow exit from QT, even if it takes a while, markets are willing to look through the timing. Risk-on assets are already pricing in that.

The excesses of the post-COVID labor market are finally behind us. The U.S. job market is solid, and the dynamics that fueled wage inflation and made the Fed’s job so hard are no longer in play. That’s not a bad setup for the U.S. economy. And in turn, it’s supportive of risk