Dana Stroul
@dstroul
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Senior Fellow @washinstitute ; recovering Hill and Pentagon staffer; focused on all things MENA
Joined August 2010
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If the intent of last night’s strike inside Iranian territory was to make clear that Tehran will not be allowed to unilaterally change the rules of the game, message delivered. Their air defenses were ineffective, a military base was targeted, the attack was limited but precise.
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But this strike is clearly intended to not escalate the situation further. If everyone decides that further rounds of state on state attacks are not in their interest, this chapter can closes…for now.
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After a Secretary of State-level visit to a foreign country, having Senate-confirmed Ambassadors in place for follow-up and follow-through is generally a good idea. As Secretary Pompeo travels this week, 5 out of 8 countries lack Ambassadors.
Just landed in Jordan, my first stop on an 8-day Mideast tour. Looking forward to discussing the U.S. withdrawal from
#Syria
and our continuing
#defeatISIS
campaign. Our tactics have changed, not the mission!
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Stating the obvious, but if US boots not present in an area then we need capable partners to gather intelligence. That requires mutual trust, cooperation, and capability. Current and would-be future CT partners are watching this closely.
New details: The SDF spent 5 months working with USG to gather intelligence on Baghdadi’s whereabouts, according to Kurdish and U.S. officials. Gen. Mazloum Abdi, SDF commander, was the only foreigner to know about the target, he tells me.
@ForeignPolicy
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Exactly. After this wave of attacks concludes, the question is whether
#Iran
signaled through targeting selection, its own public and private messaging, and capabilities employed, whether it wants to close this escalation cycle or is prepared for the consequences of going more
A lot of the US calls with Israeli officials in recent days has also been to encourage them not to overreact if Iran retaliation limited
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This is the kind of people-to-people peace building programming that maintains bipartisan support and helps preserve space for a two-state outcome. Yet the USAID mission is shutting down and most U.S.-funded programming had been cut. Totally unnecessary unforced error.
Spent the day in Jerusalem meeting with Christian, Muslim and Jewish residents. Loved the “Hand in Hand” school supported by USAID, where all faiths and backgrounds study together with mutual respect, retaining their individual culture and heritage. A great way forward!
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This is a big deal! Congressional approval of Patriot sale to Turkey is presumably tied to Turkey halting its purchase of the Russia S-400 system, which if completed triggers the very tough
#CAATSA
sanctions
.
@StateDept
authorizes a proposed Foreign Military Sale (FMS) to
#Turkey
for Patriot Missile System & Related Support and Equipment worth $3.5 billion
@StateDeptPM
@EURPressOffice
@USAandEurope
@USNATO
#FMSupdate
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This is a complete change from testimony given to Senate Foreign Relations Committee last year. Insistence from Administration witnesses that DoD does NOT track.
In his testimony, still ongoing, General Votel confirmed the US military has access to a database of all Saudi-led coalition airstrikes in Yemen. It suggests the US can tell whether its bombs are used in any particular airstrike, including those that kill civilians.
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If human rights do not make Pompeo’s talking points in Riyadh, while also glaringly absent from Cairo speech, make no mistake about blank check message this sends to rights-abusing governments everywhere.
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Remember that US-Israel MOU for $3.8B in
#FMF
and
#missiledefense
funding? It has supported Israel’s unparalleled layered missile defense system for times like this.
BREAKING — Iran has launched first wave of ballistic missiles to Israel, Iranian news agency reports
— Al Jazeera
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👋Re-entering the Twitter space with some ground-truth on this misleading piece by
@John_Hudson
, for whom I have great respect. 🧵
Scoop: The U.S. has quietly approved more than 100 foreign military sales to Israel since Oct. 7, amounting to thousands of PGMs, small diameter bombs, bunker busters & other lethal aid despite stated concerns about Israel's conduct in the war 🧵
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Today, the Congressionally-mandated
#SyriaStudyGroup
(cochaired by me &
@MichaelSinghDC
) released its Final Report. Watch the co-chairs testify now on
@cspan
or via webcast:
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Ahead of today's
#AbrahamAccords
signing ceremony, check out my latest piece with
@WashInstitute
colleague
@SafiraLeaf
on the F-35 sale to
#UAE
.
The F-35 Triangle: America, Israel, the United Arab Emirates
@WarOnTheRocks
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If you're in DC please come to
@USIP
Thursday for
#SyriaStudyGroup
public launch event with
@SenatorShaheen
,
@SenatorRomney
,
@vanceserchuk
,
@natsecdalton
, Fred Hof,
@TheStudyofWar
Kim Kagan, and
@MichaelSinghDC
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Regional evidence does not back up the
#Trump
claim that the US policy of maximum pressure on
#Iran
is working. My latest with
@AmbDennisRoss
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My quick take on
@NBCNewsTHINK
Withdrawal of U.S. forces from post-ISIS Syria before stable conditions benefits
#ISIS
,
#Assad
,
#Russia
,
#Iran
Losers:
#SDF
and their families, Syrian
#civilians
,
#refugee
-hosting neighbors, all countries ISIS seeks to attack, the United States
Trump's troop withdrawal gives Turkey access to Syria — and ISIS space to rebuild, writes
@dstroul
.
Given ample evidence that the terror organization still poses a deadly threat, it is clear that the military mission in Syria is not complete.
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ICYMI, critical read by
@Elizrael
and
@dkhalifa
on the current state of ISIS families in Syria. Impressive set of interviews, research, and analysis.
An Unnerving Fate for the Families of Syria’s Northeast via
@SadaJournal
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Looking forward to testifying on the humanitarian catastrophe next Wednesday in
#Idlib
#Syria
with
@JennyCafarella
and Dafna Rand for
@HouseForeign
. Come to the hearing or watch it online.
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#SyriaStudyGroup
Finding 1. The liberation of ISIS-held territory does not eliminate the group's threat to the U.S.
Finding 8. A Turkish incursion into NE Syria would be a major setback to U.S. aims in Syria and a new crisis in U.S.-Turkey relationship.
Barring a reversal of this decision, the Administration must come before Congress and explain how betraying an ally and ceding influence to terrorists and adversaries is not disastrous for our national security interests. My statement with
@ChrisMurphyCT
→
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House should not play politics. Yesterday’s complex attack on Israel was shaped by Iran-Russia military cooperation in
#Ukraine
. What happens in Europe does not stay there, what happens in Middle East does not stay there. The theaters are linked. US has a clear interest in
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My
@WashInstitute
colleague
@Mikeknightsiraq
raises alarm that U.S. is one strike short of making it impossible for Iraqi leaders to continue supporting partnership with United States
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4/ Pt. 7 - Turkish Forces "controlling" the safe zone. Turkey is a combatant in this conflict, and cannot simultaneously serve as unbiased monitor of the agreement or reporter of abuses. Need a credible, third party to monitor.
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Get your
#popcorn
, get your
#coffee
, and tune in for this
@HouseForeign
Hearing on
#Russia
-
#Iran
cooperation. Preview of the points I will make:
📺Tune in today at 2 p.m. ET to listen to
@dstroul
's testimony before
@HouseForeign
on
#Russian
-
#Iranian
strategic cooperation.
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Not best message less than 24 hours after Secretary Pompeo gives a speech that the US is not leaving Syria. These mixed signals could easily be avoided with a functional national security decision-making and coordination process.
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This is a remarkable bill from
@SenatorRisch
Washington Post: Saudi Arabia Diplomatic Review Act of 2019
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Quick take on the latest development in the Congressional-Executive showdown over foreign policy,
#Saudi
, and
#Iran
.
BREAKING:
I’m very pleased to announce we’ve reached a unanimous consent agreement that provides votes on our 22 joint resolutions of disapproval to block the Trump Admin’s proposed arms sales to
#SaudiArabia
and the
#UnitedArabEmirates
.
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5/ No definition of the safe zone's scope or depth.
6/ Turkey did not accept responsibility for completing the D-
#ISIS
mission or ISIS detainees, this is backtracking from the original
#WhiteHouse
statement.
7/ Need to watch for
#SDF
statement, do they agree to these actions?
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Factors to consider for whether the “matter is concluded” — only military targets in Israel? Civilian areas targeted? Civilian casualties? Nature of weapons employed in attack. Do Iran proxies stand down too?
Note that Iran asserts “the matter can be deemed concluded.” Rarely do you see a wish for deescalation so explicitly stated.
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“Neither official said they were fully confident Iran will succeed in striking Israel in a way that doesn’t prompt the U.S. to respond militarily”
Read: the US is warning Iran that they are prepared to respond.
Theory of the case since Oct 7 is that Iran seeks to pressure
NEW: Iran is calibrating its plans for a major retaliatory strike against Israel to send a message — but not spark a regional war that compels Washington to respond, the U.S. assesses. W
@alexbward
@nahaltoosi
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#SyriaStudyGroup
recommends the following (1/2):
1. Reverse the US military withdrawal from northeastern Syria.
2. Spend US stabilization funds already authorized and appropriated by Congress.
3. Insist on the continued diplomatic isolation of the Assad regime.
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Great experience coauthoring this piece with
@haningdr
. Hope debate can widen and focus on non-mil tools still at US disposal to push back on Iran in Syria.
@WashInstitute
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In today’s Politico playbook...”Trump's announcements of troop withdrawals and drawdowns in Syria and Afghanistan received little applause in D.C., but a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll finds popular support for bringing home troops from both countries.
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Regional militaries sharing air picture and working together to defend air space from adversary threats doesn’t happen overnight.
@CENTCOM
Regional Officials have told Reuters that Aircraft of the Royal Jordanian Air Force have Downed over a Dozen of the Iranian One-Way “Suicide” Drones over Northern and Central Jordan.
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Thrilled to be invited by the hosts of
#BombshellWotR
@LorenRaeDeJ
@charlie_simpson
and
@RadhaKIyengar
to discuss whither US Syria policy
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Quick reactions - is this just a return to status quo ante, safe zone cooperation?
1/ Both sides can spin this as they need...
#Trump
Administration can say that sanctions and the threat of 'economic devastation' worked to secure a ceasefire agreement.
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2/ there is no U.S. Embassy in Yemen, and U.S. military is not working in Yemen like it is in Iraq or Syria. So presumably very different threat scenario in Yemen and case will need to made on (1) imminent nature of the threat and (2) the target set.
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One interpretation is that the foreign policy establishment, progressive and conservative, need to do a better job of explaining why a globally engaged United States is in the interest of every American. And that includes better articulation of U.S. military missions abroad.
@dstroul
Which poses the question: do we elect leaders 2 take our pulse constantly and act on our impulses, even if those polled are not adequately informed (coughbrexitcough) or do we elect leaders to lead the machinery of government, leveraging insights the public collectively lacks?
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1/ If this story proves accurate, it will prompt more questions from Congress on the authorities to conduct military operations.
On the day U.S. forces killed Soleimani, they launched another secret operation targeting a senior Iranian official in Yemen
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Check out my latest op-ed authored with
@DanielBShapiro
Opinion: Is U.S. assistance to the Palestinians an indulgence we can do without? Will its elimination leave Israelis, Palestinians and U.S. interests better off? Unless Congress and the Trump administration act quickly, we are about to find out.
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I fully acknowledge my room rank is abysmal. Blame it on the little cave babies who make it impossible to have nice things.
#lifewithtoddlers
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Saudi-led coalition ready to use 'calibrated force' to push Yemen port deal: UAE - Reuters
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Thanks for the invite to participate
@BilalWahab
! Pleased to be part of this important discussion with
@vvanwilgenburg
and
@gonultol
ICYMI: you may watch last week’s event The New Status Quo in Northeast Syria: Humanitarian and Security Implications - The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
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Why didn't
@StateDept
or
@DeptofDefense
issue a travel or threat warning to American citizens or U.S. military personnel in the region cautioning them about an imminent threat of attack?
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Despite recent focus on need for "Day After" plan on Gaza, but my new piece in
@ForeignAffairs
narrows the aperture. Plenty of post-conflict experience and literature points to need to plan for immediate, 'in between' time period called the post-conflict "Golden Hour."
Israel must start planning for the weeks and months following the war in Gaza—or risk creating opportunities for Hamas to return, writes
@dstroul
.
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1/Nothing about deliveries to Israel was quiet. The below explains how the Admin uses all authorities, mechanisms, and funding…AND transparently articulates categories of equipment incl air defense, artillery ammunition, and precision-guided munitions.
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“Nearly half, 48 percent, support the withdrawal from Syria, compared to 33 percent who oppose it. And the planned troop reduction in Afghanistan is even more popular: 56 percent support bringing home about half the troops there now, and 26 percent oppose it."
In today’s Politico playbook...”Trump's announcements of troop withdrawals and drawdowns in Syria and Afghanistan received little applause in D.C., but a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll finds popular support for bringing home troops from both countries.
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Thank you to
@Smartwomen
@BeverlyKirk
and
@natsecdalton
for inviting me to participate in this timely and important discussion on
#Syria
@CSIS
In a new episode of
@Smartwomen
,
@BeverlyKirk
sits down with
@dstroul
&
@natsecdalton
to discuss the findings of the Syria Study Group, the state of the Syria-Turkey conflict, and much more.
Apple:
Spotify:
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3/ Watch out for: implementation of Pt 6 since Turkey and the U.S. have very different definitions of "terrorist" that may be difficult to reconcile in implementation.
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One good way to start is to pass the emergency supplemental appropriations bill. Includes
Billions for all of
#Israel
’s missile defense systems plus
#FMF
. And don’t forget urgently needed funding for our
@DeptofDefense
@StateDept
professionals working overtime for months. If you
As Israel faces this vicious attack from Iran, America must show our full resolve to stand with our critical ally. The world must be assured: Israel is not alone.
I will continue to engage with the White House to insist upon a proper response. The Biden Administration’s
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@seffikogen
@mdubowitz
@JeffreyGoldberg
@TheAtlantic
Here are a few (there are so many more I could list, forgive me everyone)
On assassination, terrorism and CT angle,
@dbyman
On Iraq angle,
@AlOraibi
@rmslim
@RanjAlaaldin
On Iran FP,
@MaloneySuzanne
@HussBanai
On US FP towards Iran,
@kellymagsamen
@dstroul
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Thanks to
@HouseForeign
for hosting. Kudos to
@GLNoronha
Benham Ben Taleblu for pulling out GDP and space launch facts. To recap, here are the policy recs I made for address
#Russia
-
#Iran
cooperation
At a
@HouseForeign
hearing,
@dstroul
explained how the growing Russia-Iran alliance could create problems on multiple fronts, from exchanging know-how on U.S. defense technology to facilitating nuclear proliferation, sanctions evasion, and more.
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Take a listen to latest
@DefenseOne
podcast with
#SyriaStudyGroup
member
@natsecdalton
, me, and
@Charles_Lister
@dstroul
@Charles_Lister
@natsecdalton
And not only explaining the link to the general U.S. public, but also convincing officials in the White House that parts of Syria could quickly reemerge as a hotbed of extremism just as they did in 2011.
Listen to Stroul, Lister and Dalton explain here:
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Huge compliment coming from the esteemed
@DanielBShapiro
who I always learn from and listen to.
If you have any questions on the F-35 deal for the UAE, the arms sale process, Israel's QME, etc., they will be answered is this super-informative and suberbly analytical piece by
@dstroul
and
@SafiraLeaf
.
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Back at you
@MichaelSinghDC
. And thrilled to be working with the
@USIP
team! Thank you to
@SenatorShaheen
for her commitment, vision, and leadership on this critical set of issues, and thank you to
@SenSchumer
for appointing me to the Syria Study Group.
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A report issued by Pentagon in November 2018 had suggested Turkey’s removal from the F-35 production program if Turkey does not cancel plans for the S-400s.
"The U.S. has long been urging Turkey to cancel its plans to purchase the $2.5 billion worth S-400 anti-ballistic missile system because it would harm the flight safety of fifth generation F-35 aircraft, dubbed the stealth fighter."
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Key insight from
@KoriSchake
: "Military capability matters far less than the political willingness to use it on behalf of allies. Because the United States is seen as unreliable, what’s necessary to reassure these allies is getting more expensive.
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Thanks to
@NicholasDanfort
and
@WarOnTheRocks
for putting together this timely discussion. Thoroughly enjoyed diving into the issue set and challenges ahead with
@BrewerEricM
and Gavin Clough (as himself and not speaking for
@USNavy
!)
Fascinating and timely conversation on Iran's military capabilities and nuclear thinking with
@BrewerEricM
,
@dstroul
, and Gavin Clough.
Listen here:
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Key takeaways from
#SyriaStudyGroup
member Mara Karlin
On Syria, Washington cannot simply throw up its hands via
@BrookingsInst
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News Flash!
@StateDept
#Syria
DAS Joel Rayburn will kick off this discussion tomorrow (June 17) 👇 with remarks about the implementation of
#Caesar
#Syria
#sanctions
. Tune in on the
@WashInstitute
livestream or register to
#Zoom
Tune in tomorrow for this
@WashInstitute
Policy forum 👇
Quite a day for
#Syria
policy with
#Caesar
#Syria
#Sanctions
coming online.
Is Regime Collapse on Syria's Horizon? Evaluating Assad's Grip on Power -
@WashInstitute
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Always worth paying close attention to
@DanielBShapiro
In a year when his presidency will hang in the balance, the risk that Trump will do something as reckless as withdraw the United States from NATO cannot be discounted. Here is my piece in Democracy, A Journal of Ideas, on what that madness could mean.
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Iran’s strategic goal is to expel the US military from the Middle East and be the regional hegemony. Since Oct 7 the opposite has happened— the US military posture across the region has increased. Now, again, more defense posture increases and activities
@usairforce
@USNavy
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BTW
@netflix
- I really do think House of Cards, Baghdad/Erbil style is a deeply human and compelling story that would make an incredible series. Can even recommend some amazing consultants!
@BilalWahab
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5/The claim of “lack of public information about arms deliveries” lacks context. There is a process for consulting Congress, enshrined in the Arms Export Control Act (AECA). The Admin follows the law. The two emergency notifications cited are allowed in the AECA. /End
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👇Plz join
@WashInstitute
for an important and timely discussion tomorrow.
The coming days will carry acute risks for Washington’s goal of preventing a full-scale regional war after Iran's attack on Israel. Tune in on April 16 at 12:30 p.m. ET for a timely discussion with
@dstroul
, Zohar Palti, and
@FarzinNadimi
.
#TWIPolicyForum
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Honor to co-chair, and honor to serve on the
#SyriaStudyGroup
with
@MichaelSinghDC
@natsecdalton
@vanceserchuk
@FredericHof
@dafnahrand
@tuttlechrism
@TheStudyofWar
and others.
🏆Article of the Day🏆
A must-read report from
@USIP
's
#SyriaStudyGroup
, co-chaired by
@dstroul
&
@MichaelSinghDC
. They assess the state of the conflict & offer recs for US strategy in
#Syria
going forward.
Past
#TNTAotD
picks:
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This
#Senate
Resolution introduced by
@SenatorMenendez
and
@ChrisMurphyCT
highlights exactly the kind of Congressional push back my
@WashInstitute
colleagues and I predict in our latest piece. 👇
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1/ Building on my
@WashInstitute
Policy Watch from last week:
The Face-Off Over Gulf Arms Sales: ‘Emergency’ or False Alarm? -
@WashInstitute
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@BilalWahab
and my recipe for a successful
#Iraq
visit this week: positive optics, moderate expectations, non-security deliverables, and a strong embrace of
@MAKadhimi
. Read on!
Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi’s visit to Washington this week presents an opportunity to broaden the US-Iraq relationship, write
@dstroul
and
@BilalWahab
.
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So not just military targets in Israel. Civilian population centers have been targeted. Hard to see how
#Israel
doesn’t respond.
UPDATE: Sirens in south of Israel, in Negev, Dimona, and Jerusalem. Interceptions in suburbs of Tel Aviv.
US official confirms to
@JM_Szuba
that US military is shooting down Iranian drones targeting Israel.
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5/ That McConnell agreed to the votes by unanimous consent indicates serious pressure and frustration on both sides of the aisle when
@realDonaldTrump
circumvented statuatory Congressional review periods for arms sales. The votes are a pressure relief valve for angry members.
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Re-upping my
@WashInstitute
piece with
@diplocharlie
A Decisive Vote for Humanitarian Support in Syria -
@WashInstitute
Contentious debate yesterday at
#UNSC
, no way ahead yet, veto threats from
#Russia
and
#China
, and lives of millions at risk
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Always worth reading threads by
@DanielBShapiro
1. This week's exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah represent, in some respects, a continuation of a successful policy of deterrence by Israel. But they also likely presage a conflict that -- for all Israel tries to postpone it -- remains inevitable.
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Re-upping my piece on
#CaesarAct
with
@WashInstitute
colleague
@katecbauer
and after today's announcements, a few reactions:
The Caesar Act Comes Into Force (Part 1): Increasing the Assad Regime’s Isolation -
@WashInstitute
The US State Department sanctions Asma al-Assad, Syria’s First Lady, for the first time under the new Caesar Act taking effect now. It provides for the harshest & most sweeping sanctions yet
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2/
@washingtonpost
says “the triple-digit figure…has not been previously reported.”
#Congress
authorizes and appropriates $3.3 BILLION/year in foreign military funding (FMF) for Israel. No one can claim surprise that Israel used the FMF to purchase military equipment.
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4/In addition to accelerating delivery on existing FMS and DCS cases, DoD is drawing down its own stock to support Israel. Eg. the
@USArmy
transferred its 2 Iron Dome batteries and interceptors. This is the same process for Ukraine, but Israel is using FMF and natl funds.
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3/Much of the mil equipment delivered since October 7 was accelerating delivery on existing Foreign Mil Sales and Defense Commercial Sales cases. Nothing was hidden. This is delivery on already approved cases, processed well before October 7, with funding Congress approved.
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This is no time for a hands-off approach to Libya. Too much is under threat by
#Haftar
and resumption of civil war.
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👇🏼
Sign up for our exclusive briefing today with
@AndrwPMiller
and
@dstroul
, “All About U.S. Assistance to Israel and the Palestinians,” moderated by
@mkoplow
.
REGISTER:
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Worst humanitarian crisis of Syrian conflict unfolding, and the U.S. is exploring ways to "work together with Turkey." No commitment to any action or concrete policy objective.
Readout of Secretary of Defense Dr. Mark T. Esper's Phone Call With Tu
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Re-flagging this in light of the
#Senate
debate on S.J.Res. 54 this morning -- A letter obtained by
@TheAtlantic
reveals that the U.S. has been footing the bill for a major part of the Saudi-led campaign in Yemen:
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Congrats
@JackDetsch
!
Some personal news in crazy times: I’m thrilled to be joining
@foreignpolicy
on March 30th to be their national security correspondent. It has been a wonderful & heart-rending privilege to cover the wars of the Middle East from Washington for
@AlMonitor
& I will miss it.
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Significant 👇🏼UK joined US in Coalition strikes in
#Yemen
and now joins
@CENTCOM
in defense of
#Israel
.
Reports from
@AlArabiya_Brk
that British fighters based in Cyprus have begun helping intercept missiles, drones fired from Iran at Israel -- other sources claiming the United States is also engaging in interceptions over Iraq and Syria
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Unexpected U.S. announcement of withdrawal from Syria before
#missioncomplete
renewed questions of U.S. credibility and commitment to follow through on Administration threats and warning. Who believes Trump Administration warning-by-tweeting now???
#Iran
plans to fire off Space Launch Vehicles with virtually same technology as ICBMs. The launch will advance its missile program. US, France, UK & Germany have already stated this is in defiance of UNSCR 2231. We won't stand by while the regime threatens international security.
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Accountability and transparency, especially re: U.S. military conduct, is what makes the United States unique. We evaluate ourselves, publish it, engage with Congress, and then use our example to urge others to implement the same standards of transparency.
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Brett Holmgren lays out some important areas for
#Congress
as it conducts oversight of
#Iran
policy.
As Conflict with Iran Intensifies, the U.S. Intelligence Community Is Still Leaderless via
@just_security
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8/ Congressional distrust of Trump Administration at all-time high, and does not appear likely to improve anytime soon. This will have implications for the conduct of U.S. policy in the Middle East and beyond, and more legislation coming.
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Big week to focus attention on Syria:
@HouseForeign
Hearing TODAY on
#Idlib
@SenateForeign
Hearing TODAY on
#Syria
with Caesar,
@SyriaCivilDef
and
@omarAlshogre
@HolocaustMuseum
commemoration event TODAY
Syria
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4/ And...remember S. Res. 7? A
#WarPowersResolution
that passed the
#Senate
and
#House
in THIS CONGRESS specifically stating that entrance of U.S. forces into hostilities in Yemen is not authorized? (yes, yes,
@realDonaldTrump
vetoed but Congress actually debated this one!)
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