D. Martin
@dmartin_nq
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Trader, Programmer & Self Proclaimed Statistician
Jamaica
Joined May 2024
My 2025 Performance: YTD: 28.66% Worst Month: -8.24% Best Month: 16.63% This is my first FULL year as a trader. I started trading March 2024. Best decision I ever made. I have so many goals for 2026. Let's hope December treats me well.
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I don't think this is sustainable over the long run. In the backtest, the Sharpe ratio was 4 not 9. The win rate was 61% not 77%. I know this is just variance and the strategy has just performed above average since it went live. I expect some mean reversion soon.
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I brought my Day Trading Strategy to the live markets October 1. Here are the stats so far: Trades: 44 Win Rate 77.19% Avg RR: 0.98 Avg RR (Day): 1.58 Max Drawdown: 3.08% Profit Factor: 3.32 Sharpe Ratio: 8.96 (wtf lol) Return: 23.48% This is ridiculous...
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Ending the month in style. I'm done for the week and the month. 8% Return. I have been on a crazy streak since October. This is usually when Euphoria and ego kicks in. However, I still remain humble, discipline and will simply continue to execute my plan. 🙏
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First trade of the week is a winner. 🙏 Today, I think is my best day from a psychology perspective. Up 6.8% on the month.
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NQ rn... is this the greatest Overnight low Liquidity grab? If so, I say Thursday's high by later tonight
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I preach this everyday! So many traders focus on either WR or RR. Both are equally important and heavily inversely correlated! 99% of the trading space fail to grasp WR and RR. I literally built a website solely so people can visualize and calculate the statistics for themselves
You don’t need an 80% win rate or a 1:4 RR to be profitable. Here’s what you actually need. I started trading in 2022, and I’ve met every kind of charlatan you see on social media. -First type: The ones who tell you win rate is the only thing that matters ,that you need 80%+ to
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3. Win Rate Variance Adds realistic monthly fluctuation to your win rate (e.g., 45–55% instead of a fixed 50%), so the final pass rate probability and expected time span reflects real performance swings, not a static theoretical rate.
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2. Poisson Distribution Simulates trade clustering by varying daily trade counts around your weekly average. So some days it might take 0 trade some 1, some 4 etc. Instead of assuming the same number every day.
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Here is a breakdown of how I modeled it: 1. Monte Carlo Simulations Runs 2,000 independent tests of your challenge using your exact stats, giving a probability based on many possible outcomes rather than a single scenario.
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If you know your win rate, average risk to reward and trade frequency per week. I created a free website where you can calculate your EXACT probabilities of passing any prop firm challenge and how long it will take. Check it out here: https://t.co/NaiRtNLYoy
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If you know your win rate, average risk to reward and trade frequency per week. I created a free website where you can calculate your EXACT probabilities of passing any prop firm challenge and how long it will take. Check it out here: https://t.co/NaiRtNMwe6
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I’m paying $1,000 for a $200,000 prop firm account, and if I pass the challenge they give me $20,000 drawdown Honestly don’t understand how people hate this Do your own calculations if you have a proper trading strategy You can make crazy money with such a low entry fee.
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Mental side of trading outweighs the technical side by 10x Take control of your actions: - Control leverage - Control trades taken I’ve found that sizing down is the #1 method in having full CONTROL of your trading.
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No Trades today. Anticipated the aggressive breakout but did not get my entry signal. Let's see what tomorrow will bring.
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Journaling is SO important. Can't believe I only started 2 months ago
Journaling completely changed my trading. I used to repeat the same mistakes simply because I never reviewed them. Now, every trade teaches me something. Here’s the custom Notion template I use every single day: - The main dashboard shows my recent trades and performance
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