Dennis C
@dennisc230
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Learning the ways of the monkey @tickermonkey Focused on growth stocks that have a new factor. Love to travel and anything outdoors. Sharing a few photos too.
Eastern Washington
Joined January 2015
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I created a Marketsmith screen copying the buying checklist from the book "How to Make Money in Stocks Getting Started". Only five names meet the criteria.
$ANET $ENPH $FLEX $PCAR $SMCI
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Market back into confirmed uptrend. Increased exposure and back on the hunt for the next TMLs. (I never actually stopped) My list has an average sales growth last three qtrs of 25% or above and most are accelerating. RS mostly above 80.
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One of my major themes going forward.
$ENPH makes solar panels
$ARRY makes trackers for solar farms
$ON makes Silicon Carbide used in solar panels. They have LTSAs with 8 of the top 10 makers.
$AEHR makes testing equipment for Silicon Carbide
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$TSM makes $NVDA chips. $TSM announced a 60% sales increase in April. Does that point to an $NVDA earnings beat? I'm leaning towards yes.
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I get lots of questions about the Power of 3 set up so here you go.
Disclaimer: I didn't come up with this concept. For more info check out the Petaluma IBD group. Mike Scott gets all the credit.
Power of 3 is a convergence of the 10 sma, 21 ema and 50 sma day moving averages
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Leaders continue to reveal themselves. Seeing some strong potential new TMLs like $MP $GFS coming out of early bases but also nice to see the institutional darlings like $NVDA $TSLA and $AMD heating up. Lots of headline risk so staying vigilant. Ferts extended above KMAs.
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Was expecting a train wreck looking at charts this weekend. Was pleasantly surprised by lots of orderly pullbacks to key moving averages and flagging action. This is why it pays to keep an unbiased stance and interpret the info the markets are giving.
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When you have a stock up 20% you have to ask yourself. Do I have a monster? This checklist is from an IBD article so the Yes are for Hansen Naturals now Monster Beverage Roughly 50% of all time winners didn't trigger the eight week hold rule. This may help you to hold a monster
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Happy New Year everyone. Low volume holiday trading is coming to an end. Monday should give us some great feedback. Many of the leaders are well into a base attempt and are showing support at key moving averages. Some have tightening of key moving averages. Good luck next week.
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Here are the Stock Checkup grades of all the names on my watchlist with a 3 month RS above 80. IBD Stock Checkup looks at mostly fundamental but some technical points. I have a computer program that assigns a letter grade based on how many weaknesses are in the Checkup.
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Sentiment indicators remain elevated so some caution is warranted. Make sure to have an action plan should the market turn south. Watching recent breakouts in $AMD $NVCR $ZS $CRWD and others for breakout health.
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Leading stocks acting well. I continue to think we are rotating into a new batch of leaders. Nasdaq completed a 1% three weeks tight with an inside week for the last week.
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Two years in the making. Timelapse of an epic sunset reflecting in a calm lake. Conditions were perfect this evening. Had a clearing storm and no wind.
Hope you enjoy.
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Seeing more and more healthy looking set ups in companies with good fundamentals. Indexes have more to prove. Volume has been below average and declining and the 50 day looms large above. Need more than 10 or 15 names to turn this market around.
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Indexes still remain weak. See many of the big cap tech names in double bottom base formations. Earnings season has started. Will continue to scan and watch for new leaders to emerge although I'm not convinced leaders like $AMD $NVDA and $MSFT are done.
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IBD moves to uptrend under pressure. Overall I was pleasantly surprised by charts this weekend. Most leaders are extended from pivots. Seeing multiple base on base formations. $NASI hasn't followed through on its decline. I'm upbeat on the current leadership.
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$SQ $DDOG $LULU $AMD $ROKU all in stage 1 bases. $NVDA came out of a stage 1 base. These are all big liquid, institutional quality investments.
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Nvidia CEO said 2022 would be the year of the data center during their last conference call. Here are a few names to focus on for that trend.
$AMD $NVDA $MSFT $STX $PSTG $MU $VRT
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Markets follow through on a new uptrend attempt. Leaders have been leading for a while. Hoping for a sustained rally into the end of year. Many leaders seem extended but gotta give them room if you want a really big winner. Stock checkup grade included.
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When an investment hits your 20-25% profit goal you need to make a decision on holding. About 50% of all time winning stock didn't trigger the 8 week hold rule. Here's a list of questions to help you determine...Do you have a monster?
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I feel one of my strengths is finding companies with growth potential. I'm generally looking for that ah ha kind of info. Here are several companies I'm looking at and why. These are not set ups. I own several of these and looking for entries in others.
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Markets still in melt up mode and strong seasonal pattern is on. A pull back is coming but everyone is guessing at when. You should know what actions you'll take when a pull back does occur. For now I'm just holding until the markets tell me to change.
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Several leading names broke to new all time highs last week and several others are close. But the Nasdaq logged two distribution days and is still under the 200 day. Still a little cautious. Seeing a lot more energy names move onto the IBD lists this week.
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Strong technical action continues in most leading stocks. Will continue to ride the wave until the market tells me not to. No predictions and no guessing. Write a plan of action should the market head south. Follow that plan.
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Crypto, marijuana and semis Oh My! Semis really leading the market. Chips are in almost everything so semis doing well are a good market indicator. NASI turned up on Thursday after going negative. Been wading my way back into the pool. Go Zags!
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My biggest issue investing is giving back too much of good gains. So I've been working on offensive sell rules and this is what I've come up with. Still a work in progress so this is just the beginning.
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Bad week with a great finish. Saw lots of supportive action during chart review. Secondary indicators remain weak. Could we get a rally when nobody expects it? $QQQ has a three weeks tight with support at the 10 week. That's the pattern I'll be watching for clues.
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Watchlist. Overall I was encouraged by support on many leading names. Still have a cautious view of the markets for now but my stance after reviewing charts is cautiously optimistic. Big question: Is this a correction or just an intermediate pull back?
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Seeing rotation out of this year's leaders into newer names. Many newer names finding support at key moving averages. Time will tell. I see marijuana as a theme for 2021. $CELH powerful breakout. On the hunt for new names that have TML potential.
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Can't beat a day like this for your first day of skiing for the season. I love winter!!
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How many of you had an absolute monster and sold it way too early? I bought $NVDA at $30 in early 2016 and sold it for a few %. Currently $713. Biggest mistake I've ever made.
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Strong rebound in the markets with many leading stocks finding support at key moving averages. Sentiment indicators are warm at best. Still riding the wave until the market shows me otherwise. Know your EPS especially if starting a new position.
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Very encouraged after looking at charts this morning. The old leaders are busted but seeing lots of names finding support at key moving averages and with potential Power of 3 set ups. Will be taking a deeper dive into fundamentals to get focused on a few names I'll share tomorrow
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Many newer names continue to show strength. $U $NET break to new highs and $CRSR $PLTR sell off. Looks like a stock pickers market but have to be careful and take profits. Sentiment indicators show lots of bullishness. May be a warning sign.
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Next leaders will have strong fundamentals. I've been building out a watchlist of fundamentally strong names to keep an eye on.
$AHCO $APPS $BROS $CRWD $DLO $DOCN $EVH $FOUR $FVRR $LCII $MP $NFE $OLPX $OTTR $UPST $VIR $ZI
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Confession from someone who called a market top. Once upon a time I was sure the market was headed for a correction. Went to cash. Weeks later with the market still going up I decided I was wrong and bought new positions. Correction started the next week and I got killed. The end
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Markets got trounced this week. Friday's volume was lighter but above average. Many of the stocks on my watchlist found support at key moving averages and volume declined from early in the week. I added a Stock Checkup grade to the watchlist. Will explain below.
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Finally after two years of attempts captured an amazing timelapse of an epic sunset reflected in a calm lake. Will share timelapse on Saturday
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Most of the leading stocks have weak fundamentals are thinly traded or both. These don't feel like institutional quality names. Seeing a few more set ups. But many names that show strength gets sold off hard. An environment to be very careful.
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Watchlist. Seeing some excellent set ups or add on buy points this weekend. Last week gave some great opportunities to buy some big, liquid leader names. Several three weeks tight and a Power of 3 setup to watch this week.
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What three lessons would I tell myself about investing if I could go back in time?
1. Cut losses quickly
2. Trust your own research not others opinions.
3. Sell half at 20% profit. No questions asked.
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Market turned to uptrend under pressure so new buys are off the table. Many on my watchlist showed good technical action and I was encouraged after looking thru charts. * on this list are the ones I'll focus on. Looking for new opportunities this weekend and will share if any.
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A friend sent me this. Monthly $SPY 8 and 13 week moving averages have only crossed twice since 2000. Once in 2001 and again in 2008. Also a few close calls along the way. Very close to crossing right now.
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A wild week ends with the markets down slightly but no new distribution days. A couple of leaders have broke down and will be removed from the watchlist. Overall, charts remain intact. Marijuana stock flags are standing out.
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Nasdaq was up for the week but volume was light. S&P continues to struggle at the 50 day and IWM looks weak. Semis continue to shine and $AEHR earnings this week. Still lightly invested and seeing many constructive flags. Extended leaders not included on this list.
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Incredible spectacle in mid February when the sunset lights up this waterfall in Yosemite.
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Constructive base building in many of the leading names. Many are in the fourth week of base building some are in flat bases. Some have alternative buy pivots. Know how long and how deep each base is. Watch relative strength rating
Favorites $SQ $BYND $TDOC $SE $QCOM $NOW $CELH
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Markets begin a pullback. First down week after eight up weeks. NASI hooked down and finished nr 10 day. Most leaders have been extended for a while. I'm using this time to hone in on those leaders I've missed and narrow my focus list. Extended leaders not included in this list.
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Focus remains on high quality companies in or coming out of early stage bases. My take is the market is continuing to rotate into these names. Also several IPO names worth a look. Loads of key earnings reports coming in the next week or two. Be sure to know your EPS dates!!
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Happy Birthday to the 🐐 William O'Neil. I've personally learned so much from him.
@IBDinvestors
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Fasting Update.
Tomorrow morning will be my last meal for three days.
Been prepping by eating low carb and sticking to 17 hour fasting each day.
Current weight 195.
It'll be tea, water and no sugar electrolyte drinks.
It's mind over mouth.
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Anyone else love skiing in the sunshine with perfectly groomed trails and a great view?
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Are we due for a Santa Rally? There were a lot fewer set ups then I expected. Many of the set ups didn't have the fundamentals I look for. Several were already beyond good buy points. Still a strong list to work with. Market action has been great since Jerome spoke Wednesday.
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Looks like a low volume pullback to the 50 day moving average on the Nasdaq but POTUS headline risk will dominate the market. Cautious stance for now. Follow your stop loss plan. There will be future opportunities.
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Yesterday's photo was so well received I thought I'd share this photo from the same morning. Walking above the clouds is a really incredible experience.
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Focus list
$NET $TSM $PLUG $SQ $TSLA $ARRY $ZI $NVCR $CRWD $DKNG
Make sure to know earnings date before starting any new positions.
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Here's the IBD Stock Checkup grade for the leading tech names. In my opinion. The Stock Checkup considers both technical and fundamental. The grade simply puts and a to E rating on the Stock Checkup. See a pattern?
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Great week in the markets. Nasdaq building the right side of an 8 week base that's 13% deep. S&P is the clear leader. My focus remains on crypto and semis. Marijuana seems to have lost a bit of luster for now. Very excited about the possibilities in this market. Focus on the best
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Large caps continue to lead with S&P testing the 50 day. 200 day next test. Nasdaq had an oops reversal and bullish engulfing on Friday. Most bases I'm seeing need more time to build out full bases. FAANG stocks getting beaten up is part of the process of creating a new bull imo.
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$BROS chart since IPO. Looks like a change in character to me. Maybe coming out of the Late Bloomer Pattern as described in the book "The Lifecycle Trade". Pg 22
Charts look very similar. One to keep an eye on.
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First down week after nine up weeks on the indexes. Most leaders are still extended. Thinking it's best to relax and let this play out for a bit. Patience is probably the best stance but that can change so be ready. Potential for buys or add ons on pullbacks to key averages.
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Focus list. I'm seeing more and more quality set ups in companies with strong fundamentals. Getting more confident in a bull market or good rally but have a stop loss. Check earnings dates!
$ARRY $SQM $ON $LTHM $CF $IMCR $MBLY $GFS $ENPH $AEHR $ALB
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Watchlist shrank significantly but seeing lots of support at 50 day. Expecting more downside but being prepared for a change in direction. Some key names like $AMD and $NVDA have potential double bottoms to watch. Doing some additional screening this weekend looking for strength.
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I'd love to see a CNBC stop parading billionaires in front of the camera to talk about the economy. Instead bring in a couple with two kids making 70k to talk about the economy.
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60 hours into a 72 hour fast. At this point nothing will break me. Plan to have eggs, mushrooms and kiwi tomorrow morning to break the fast.
Wasn't as difficult as I thought but definitely a challenge.
Not for everyone but I'd recommend trying it for those so inclined.
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Many on the watchlist found support or are retaking key moving averages. Distribution days moderate but not excessive. Head line risks still remain. The periods when I felt the market was heading for a correction and stayed in is when I've made the most money. Up 5% this week.
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Narrow leadership makes for challenging investing. Many leaders are extended. AI theme names heating up but still early so don't panic. Wait for good risk/reward entries. Secondary indicators still weak but improved on Friday. Earnings are beginning soon so know your dates.
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Markets continue to improve and I've added more exposure over the last two weeks. Leadership feels narrow to me with everyone looking at the same names. Some wild price swings so entry and patience are very important. IBD still has uptrend under pressure.
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$AMD 21 day support is a thing of beauty. The best stocks will find support at the 21 day vs the 50 day.
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Focus list. Good luck next week.
$AMD $NVDA $DDOG $MSFT $VRT $STX $MP $MU $TNDM $NTR $OLPX $FTNT $AMAT
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Here's a Marketsmith list I call "New Tech" Looking for companies that will change the way we live, work and play. Sorted by 4 qtr % sales growth.
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Markets continues to grind higher on below average volume. Many of the leaders are early in consolidations. Most names are finding support at shorter term moving averages. Key is being patient and waiting for the right risk/reward spots.
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Strong week but lots of growth names had negative reversals Friday. Oil names still strong but in many cases the RS lines are beginning to fade. I'm beginning to feel the next bull is close with new tech like $AEHR $ON $ENPH $ARRY etc leading the way. Still a little cautious
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Two mistakes I've made as an investor
1. If I got stopped out of a position I'd remove it from the watchlist. Better to continue to watch.
2. Watching too many names. Better to find 15-20 fundamentally strong names and concentrate on them.
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Indexes drop to 10 week on light and declining vol. Still in Fed purgatory. Leaders were a lot better technically than expected. Oil and gas names continue to dominate the IBD lists. Need more work to find the best. Many are later bases and acting sloppy.
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Many recent leaders took a hard hit this week. But most didn't have high volume. Key earnings reports and the fed decision will likely set the tone next week. Heavy cash(or all cash) position probably the best place to be until the smoke clears. Know your earnings dates.
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Saw plenty of set ups last week and during my weekend screens. But it's mostly larger well established companies. Not seeing those game changing names with huge sales and earnings growth that have the potential to go up 100s of %. So, I'll take what the market gives me.
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Many on the watchlist are extended and living near or above the 10 day moving average. A few leaders are breaking down. Seeing some support at key moving averages and several high tight flags. A shallow pull back with a run into the end of the year seems most likely scenario.
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Well, I'm pretty frustrated with myself. Had a 3+% gain on my portfolio last week into this week and gave most of it back in the last two days. Bad execution on my part. Bear market chop can be brutal.
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Morning light on Mt Adams above a cloud filled Goat Creek valley from Goat Lake in the Goat Rocks Wilderness Southern Cascades of Washington State.
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Another strong week. Semi stocks were front and center which bodes well for the market imo. Noted multiple stocks forming bullish flags. I'm riding the trend until the market says stop. Enjoy your long weekend everyone.
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Most leaders are either extended or have broken down. Nasdaq has many recent days of distribution. Many of the names on my screens looked good then didn't after closer examination. $NVDA earnings key. Focusing on finding names I'd liked to own when market improves. Stay patient.
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Market rally continues. Most of the leaders are extended. Rally is very narrow and needs to broaden out. NH/NL is still wavering around even. Could be a rally that continues without pullback and fomo will move it even more.
We'll see. $NVDA earnings on Tuesday.
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Markets still in correction but seeing more and more set ups emerging. Huge volume reversal Thursday but Friday's gains were on volume below average. Monday should give us some good info. Headline risks still abound. Watching to see if the gap ups in $CARG $LNTH can hold.
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Wondering how to enter gap ups like $IOT $ESTC $PATH.
Here is $VRT earnings back in late April to study. It went into a three week's tight before moving higher.
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Had a great run the last six weeks along with my best week ever last week. Main goal is to keep a majority of those gains. Several secondary indicators extended. Expecting a short pullback then rally into the end of the year but the market doesn't care what I think. Stops are set
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Concentrating on managing current positions and protecting gains from late October low. Not excited about starting new positions with the $NASI RSI above 95 and indexes up seven weeks in a row. Biggest week of the year for me.
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“If you are depressed you are living in the past.
If you are anxious you are living in the future.
If you are at peace you are living in the present.”
― Lao Tzu
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Market feels weak as secondary indicators have been getting progressively worse. But leaders are not breaking down and most are pulling gently back into the shorter term averages. Run of the mill consolidation? Pick your targets and be patient. And get outside and have fun.
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Remaking my watchlist. Focused on looking for new monsters. Multiple newer IPOs look very promising. Solar and marijuana trends to watch. Semi stocks look very strong.
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$AEHR last three weekly closing range. 73% 84% currently 86%. Is it a Monster Stock in the making? Here's a checklist.
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We're passing from fall to winter here in Washington. Leaves are past prime. Thought I'd share a photo of the local Japanese Gardens at peak color.
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Focus list of fundamentally strong stocks sorted by 3 month relative strength.
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Saw several new names pop up on screens but after a closer look most are thin or have other issues. Fert stocks look to be building new bases and are close to the 50 day. Oil and gas still acting well with many names near highs. Patience, this may take a while.
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Nasdaq up eight weeks in a row. Downside oops reversal Friday and some weakness in $IWM may be signaling a pause in the rally. Watching for names that give back the least after strong moves. Most leaders are hanging out near shorter term moving averages. Enjoy the long weekend
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$VRT is a beast. Has grown to 36% of my portfolio. That's a bit much but feels like it is in the AI picks and shovels sweet spot. Decisions...decisions.
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