Deer Point Macro
@deerpointmacro
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Macroeconomics, emerging and developed markets, FX, covered interest rate parity, and cross-currency basis swaps.
United States
Joined August 2019
FOMC Minute sentiments increasingly downbeat, and expecting rate markets to price out cuts over next year.
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Q2 S&P QoQ margin growth forecast. Still expecting margin expansion, as companies still take advantage of consumer’s still willing to consume despite modest price increases.
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Q2 margins to continue to inflate. Companies still have pricing power and consumer isn’t weak enough yet that margins need to take the hit.
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EPS estimates:. Q2 anticipation is for EPS to come around 60 for Q2. The profit growth should be helped by continued optimism and spending from consumers. Unless we see a rapid shift in the consumer expect decent earnings into Q2.
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LME Copper Price and Global Trade Growth:. The revival of the world business cycle should push up copper prices (despite tariff's). I am expecting increase demand for copper, and manufacturing cycle starts to increase. Given this my forecast for copper over the next month LME
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Consumer Credit out at 3pm. We are expecting consumer credit to come in at 10B relative to Reuters Polling of 11B
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Iran Oil Exports by Country:. China has been a major buyer of Iranian crude accounting for between 80%-90% of exports. The chart below tracks oil exports and shows a breakdown of trade flows. From the graph, it’s clear that China accounts for the vast majority of Iran’s crude
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10y headed towards our target of 4.50%, as growth fears waned yields on the long-end were bound to move higher.
See 10y around 4.5%:. Currently rally in 10y seems to be a function of growth fears. However, as per my forecast for Real GDP expecting to see growth around 2.5% real. Now bringing that over to the model we have for the 10y (previous forecast vs actual) currently anticipation is
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Destroying the De-Dollarization Narrative One BRIC at A Time
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Share of Currencies as % of Trade:. The dollar remains dominant and is currently the only currency showing month-over-month growth. The fact that the vast majority of invoicing and settlement is still conducted in dollars is a clear rejection of the narrative suggesting a
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