David Brickell
@davidbrickell80
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18 yrs on institutional trading desks. Now focused on crypto through a macro lens. If you’re not in crypto, you’re not macro. @FRNT_Financial @LDNCryptoClub
United Kingdom
Joined March 2016
Crypto Through a Macro Lens 👁️ After 18 years on macro trading desks, I look at Crypto through a macro lens What are some of the macro indicators I look at every day as part of that framework and why? A thread 👇 1/n
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Check out my latest macro thoughts on this weeks crypto Options Unplugged Great this week to be joined by @zerocap_fx 🤝 Plenty of alpha in this one 👇
Equities and gold are rallying, but crypto stays stuck. BTC vol sits in the low 30s, skew remains put-heavy. Episode 78 of Crypto Options Unplugged with guest Mark Hiriart from @zerocap_fx is out now. Listen in: ▶️ https://t.co/KAKAmkZkU9
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10yr US yields approaching 4% A break below and think we target 3.80% This is quite the reversal in the narrative of recent weeks and is another nice tailwind for Bitcoin and risk generally Importantly as it relates to liquidity is the MOVE index (measure of US bond
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Time for Bitcoin to start playing catch up with gold and equities
Price action looks good post the PPI yesterday with Bitcoin holding most of its gains with little pull back CPI later likely to have less impact (given it typically will only vary a bp +/- expectations) @truflation forecasting 2.8% Vs 2.9% consensus (they’ve been quite good
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The signs were there…
Cheeky chart to go with below US PPI been diverging from China PPI China’s deflation should exert downward pressure
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On the way to the studio ti record this weeks @DeribitOfficial Crypto Options Unplugged with @options_insight Market sentiment is awful despite the macro looking 👌 Need to educate some CT bears
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Will add to this Short term market is positioned bearishly and generally market underweight risk More painful move will be market ripping higher
NFP today 3 scenarios we’re thinking about Goldilocks: A soft print in and around 75k consensus with minor revisions Not too hot, not too cold, nails on Fed cuts, equities rip and BTC follows and we push $117k by COB and follow through next week to new record highs Big
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Good to get back in the studio this week with @options_insight for the @DeribitOfficial podcast Fresh off the beach to discuss all things macro and crypto and where this is heading …the summer lull is over
Some clips from this week's episode of Crypto Options Unplugged. Lot's of different scenarios that could play out, but ultimately all roads lead to much higher #bitcoin prices
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The “liquidity hangover” we mentioned below obviously extended a day given US holiday Monday Circa 55bn came back into the market yesterday via the RRP drawdown So long as the US bond market volatility can be contained, it’s likely up only for rest of September Would get
Your friendly reminder that it’s month end Typically bad for liquidity and makes for noisy trading with portfolio adjustments and rebalancing Don’t read anything into moves today (or really this week) Usually get a “liquidity hangover” first couple of days of new month and
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Had this conversation on the bond market with @options_insight in the studio today for @DeribitOfficial Crypto Options Unplugged podcast A lot of uncertainty to process right now as to how this plays out The one thing I’m sure of is that nothing stops this train and central
ISM manufacturing print was quite market friendly Still in contraction territory but rising from 48.0 to 48.7 New order rose from 47.1 to 51.4 whilst prices fell from 64.8 to 63.7 We still think we are in a “Goldilocks” environment for risk Slowing not collapsing economy with
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I’ve been on holiday past 10 days Every time I go away, Bitcoin sells off I thought it was coincidence, but now starting to think it’s a real thing 😂 Anyway, flying back today so BTFD 💪
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Guys, when I said I was sticking some @DeribitOfficial Deribit shorts on, I didn’t mean I was shorting Bitcoin
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Single integration. Zero migrations. Native on every chain. Did we just solve distribution? 🫢 Spice Flow goes live in testnet today. Here’s what it is and how to scale your app across DeFi with minimal effort. ↓
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I should have said I’m on holiday this week and I don’t think I’ve ever been on holiday and crypto and equities not dump 😂 Thank me later for the great entry levels
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This is what makes this bull market fundamentally different The institutional adoption story has seen more “real” buying than speculative leveraged buyers That’s helping reduce volatility and making this bull market more sustainable It’s also reflective of a still relative
Despite ETH making a new all time high and the rest of the market sending, funding rates are still completely neutral. This is incredible stuff tbh.
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The ultimate bull case for crypto is playing out even more quickly than I expected Not only is it a high probability that the 4 year cycle is extended There’s a high probability it’s broken all together and Bitcoin could be set to go on an exponential run higher over the next
Been asked about when we think this Bitcoin and crypto cycle tops and if we’ve broken the 4 year cycle We believe the 4 year cycle has been at least extended to the end next year if not completely broken The crypto cycle typically syncs with the macro and liquidity cycle which
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This bull market is about a lot more than the next Fed rate cut 👇
It’s understandable markets rallying on a more dovish JPow who confirmed what we’ve been saying for weeks that they are implicitly accepting higher levels of inflation Indeed, the job of central banks in the face of an exponential debt spiral is to keep inflation as high as
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I’m going to claim this as a win @options_insight 😂 Tomatoe Tamata at this point 😂
Was great to get in the studio with @davidbrickell80 this week to hear his take on the #Ethereum explosion. TLDR: New highs incoming!
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If you’re looking to learn and start to understand and apply all things AI, give London AI club a follow 👇
What this tweet means in simple terms: Your phone or computer becomes an edge node, meaning it runs AI models directly on the device instead of relying only on the cloud. This allows the AI to generate results (text, images, audio) quickly and privately, right where you are...
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Check out my latest macro thoughts in Connecting the Dots for @LDNCryptoClub Quite an important one this week I think we’re nearing the moment the Fed will be forced to inject liquidity and effectively start funding the deficit All roads lead to Bitcoin 🚀
🚨 We're nearing a point where the Fed will be forced to inject liquidity and propel Bitcoin to new record highs 📈 Read our full explainer in the latest edition of Connecting the Dots - out now 👇 https://t.co/WFb6mlnwaz
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I’m looking forward to the day @iamtomskinner buys his kids a puppy and @narindertweets loses it blaming him for promoting cruelty to animals 😂
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