camilo
@curiouscamilo
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building a hedge fund to provide LPs with alpha exposure in prediction markets
san francisco
Joined February 2017
we are in the early stages of building this! . reach out if you’re a quant or dev interested in building in this space.
in the next 6–8 months, we’ll see the first polymarket-only trading fund. size: prolly < $10M.not hft (liquidity isn’t there yet).strategy: mix of ai + human experts (history, politics). it will easily outperform most other types of funds.
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hummingbird believes that founders are 80% of the equation, that is their confession.
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when it comes to infinite games like investing, there is no settled state, the horizon pushes forward and you chase after it @mariogabriele.
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prediction markets will become the financial market's new lingua franca. they are the common denominator connected in one way or another to every asset class. they distill the complexities of investing into a single equation of risk, return, and probability. they are the most
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RT @neilagarwal98: The powerful meta of prediction markets (and why I am an investor in them and a believer in @curiouscamilo even as he be….
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like this post if you are a trader, quant or dev bullish prediction markets. i'm building an army.
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RT @j0hnwang: prediction markets are leading indicators for surfacing alpha. aggregated collective intelligence is insanely powerful.
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prediction markets are still frontrunning Wall St. @Kalshi remains a leading indicator for Tesla delivery numbers, outperforming @TroyTeslike, the best quantitative Tesla analyst, and Wall St. analysts' consensus in predictive accuracy. this is a kindergarten-level arb,
Brilliant move: using @Kalshi predictions to arbitrage $TSLA and double your money. 🤯.
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prediction market this. prediction market that. polymarket this kalshi that. supercycle this bullpost that. the algo just loves it.
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prediction markets are truly antifragile. trump tariffs? war in iran? the world's eyeballs went to X. now they go to Kalshi and Polymarket. prediction market supercycle.
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spot on. very well written. we were underwriting a btc dat a few months ago but changed direction as the potential scenarios described here became increasingly probable with more dats continuously being listed/supplied driving mNAV compression.
DATs not going to last.The last ‘traditional’ bubble cryptocurrencies experienced was in Q4 2017, characterised by double or even triple digit % days, an influx of new participants such that exchanges couldn’t keep up with demand, speculative ICOs, record volumes, new paradigms,
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mNAVs have been steadily declining the past few weeks, across DATs. demand for coins has been strong, mNAV compression is being driven by increasing DAT supply (and it’s not slowing down with listings being announced every other week). supply/demand equilibrium of ‘coin exposure.
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tokenization is inevitable because it’s finance in humanity’s new lingua franca: code, which is now articulated in plain english.
The next wave of defi usage will be more extreme than we've ever seen, but it will not come from people manually going onchain like every prior cycle. They will be accessed via easy frontends:.- Aave widget embedded in Lemon, etc.- BTC-backed loans that flow through defi (Lava,.
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"Now we have, now, 3% of the world's population subscribing to Spotify, paying Spotify recurrently every month, 3%. Now do we get to 90%, unsure, but it's not implausible that we get to 10% or 15%" @alega
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