🚨Rate cuts in December are CANCELED Odds of a Fed cut just dropped below 50% I interviewed Fed insiders, analysts and macro traders Here’s full breakdown and what it means for BTC👇🧵

🚨Rate cuts in December are CANCELED Odds of a Fed cut just dropped below 50% I interviewed Fed insiders, analysts and macro traders Here’s full breakdown and what it means for BTC👇🧵

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10/ If you’re bullish, your main enemy now is timing The Fed is not here to save you in Q4 - not yet Stay liquid, rotate fast, and treat every breakout as a trade This is not yet the bull run you’re hoping for - survive until it is

9/ Crypto is reacting - not to data, but to disillusionment No rate cut in December breaks the “Q4 soft landing” narrative Altcoins struggle to break out, liquidity thinning, new meta unclear Retail is waiting, but smart money is already rotating into safety

8/ Market pricing now reflects a delayed easing cycle: • Dec 10: 25bps cut → 3.50–3.75% • Jan 28: pause • Mar 18: 25bps cut • Apr 29, Jun 17: pause • Jul 20: 25bps cut → 3.00–3.25% But even this depends on inflation and stability holding steady

7/ Inflation hasn’t vanished - it’s gone quiet before Q1 wage resets Shelter costs, energy volatility, and tariffs still pressure CPI Fed can’t ignore signs of stagflation: slow growth + sticky prices That’s a trap they fear more than mild recession

6/ Meanwhile, the U.S. is launching real military operations again Naval strikes on narco-cartels in the Pacific and Caribbean began Escalating conflict adds geopolitical uncertainty into market models And uncertainty = higher risk premiums = lower odds of rate cuts

5/ Ending the shutdown was technically bullish - but markets sold off Why? Because the news was priced in weeks ago - classic sell-the-news Shutdown resolution does not equal economic momentum or rate cuts It just removed one risk - not enough to justify new bullish entries

4/ WSJ says it’s the most chaotic Fed split in Powell’s 8-year tenure The shutdown ended, but trust in soft-landing narratives has collapsed Even “dovish” cuts projected for early 2026 now come with hesitation Volatility inside the Fed = volatility in crypto and risk assets

3/ Powell admitted publicly: “A December rate cut is not a done deal” This is rare - he’s usually careful not to spook the market mid-cycle But the lack of macro data due to the shutdown left them flying blind Each side now relies on private models, leaks and forecasts

2/ Inside the Fed, tensions are escalating between hawks and doves Hawks argue inflation is resurging due to tariffs and wage stickiness Doves counter with weakening labor data and slowing private demand The result - no unified path forward, just internal conflict

1/ The probability of a Fed rate cut in December has dropped below 55% Officials like Daly, Kashkari, and Hummack signaled it’s too early They warn inflation is still alive, and easing now risks a rebound The market is no longer pricing a December cut as a certainty

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🚨BREAKING Trump signed the bill to end the Shutdown Meanwhile BTC dropped 5% Still bullish

🚨BREAKING Trump signed the bill to end the Shutdown Meanwhile BTC dropped 5% Still bullish

103 → 92 → 171 → 65 3500 → 2800 → 6750 → 1300 Connect the dots

103 → 92 → 171 → 65 3500 → 2800 → 6750 → 1300 Connect the dots

Bull Run 2021: BTC is pumping ETH is pumping Alts is pumping Bull Run 2025: Shutdown: DUMP NO Shutdown: DUMP Rate cuts: DUMP NO Rate cuts: DUMP Tariffs: DUMP NO Tariffs: DUMP NO news -> DUMP Bad news -> DUMP Good news -> DUMP Is this the bull market everyone dreamed of?