Chris Perruna
@cperruna
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Owner's Rep, investor & weather enthusiast. Husband, dad, dogs & sports. My only account has a blue checkmark. Beware of impersonators. No investment advice!
NY/ NJ
Joined March 2009
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Last Seen Profiles
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THREAD // How I Invest
1. Successful Investing starts with Education
2. Psychology of Trading & General Rules
3. Essentials of Fundamental Analysis
4. Master Technical Analysis
5. Screening for Stocks
6. Making a Watchlist
7. Money Management
8. Diversification of Accounts
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Stocks to Watch 2021 - Full Analysis Blog Thread
$TDOC* $PINS* $CRWD* $FSLY* $NET $APPS $DDOG* $U $PTON $ROKU* $ZM* $DOCU $CRM $UBER* $ABNB
* = Stocks I own
Detailed analysis for each individual stock is within this thread, via screenshot from the blog
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This is When we Buy
Wait for the Stage 1 & 2 bases!
Simply put, sideways action in a monthly range while the 200d ma closes in on the sideways base will highlight the stage 1 setup.
Then, once the stage 2 break-out occurs, the new leaders will be off to the races.
#Patience
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If I had to trim my account to five "current" holdings and sit on them for 5 years, what would they be?
1. $SQ
2. $TDOC
3. $ROKU
4. $PLTR
5. $SE
* $ZM & $PINS very close
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I can't get over folks ripping Cathie Wood, someone who is 100% transparent, has a great track record & career for 2+ decades on Wall Street.
Then, these same folks buy into & believe straight up charlatans on Wall Street & Fintwit, with no transparency.
Human psychology 101
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🧵Stocks to Watch 2022
$ABNB $AFRM $APPS $ASAN $COIN $CURI $DDOG $DOCN $GENI $GLBE $INMD $MQ $NET $OPRX $RBLX $SI $SOFI $U $UPST $ZI
Detailed Blog Link:
Detailed analysis for each individual stock is within this thread, via a screenshot from the blog.
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Many growth stocks will need TIME to repair themselves to healthy charts, meaning:
- Establishing a bottom
- Building a base
- Getting back to the 200d ma
- Getting back above the 200d ma
- New Stage 2
Patience (months, if not longer) will be required with many of these names!
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I have compiled what I believe to be the strongest trends into 11 groups containing a list of 30 stocks.
I'm working to narrow to 15 names for Stocks to Watch 2021:
E-commerce
Payments
Security
Edge & Cloud
Database
Health
Fitness
Streaming
Digital Ads
Tech Utilities
Services
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THREAD
Buy What the Funds are Buying!
The sweet spot is the number of funds accumulating, rising from 200 to 1,000+ funds.
This is where the big runs happen (and beyond)!
Institutions move stocks long term.
10 EXAMPLES:
$SE
$SHOP
$ETSY
$NET
$TTD
$CRWD
$ZM
$PTON
$DOCU
$SNAP
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STOCKS TO WATCH | 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020
"Money is made by sitting" - Jesse Livermore
Amazing results: these lists have outperformed my personal account.
2020:
2019:
2018:
2017:
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1) Stocks to Watch 2020 - Full Analysis Blog Thread
$STNE $OKTA $ROKU $ZM $LVGO $WORK $SQ $CGC $CRWD $TCEHY $PYPL $MDB $SNAP $SHOP $SE
I have posted the detailed analysis for each individual stock within this thread, via screenshot from the blog.
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Honestly, 95% of all folks should just own index funds and call it a day and forget about trading or investing in individual equities.
I write that sentence above in my annual stocks trends post, every year.
And every year, it becomes more apparent.
It triggers folks. 🤷♂️
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I may start to accumulate some stocks during a stage 1 base but the lower risk buy is a breakout from stage 1 to stage 2, as depicted in the graphic.
I do not want to accumulate during downtrending stage 4 charts, when price is well below the 200d ma.
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My Top 30 Stocks to Watch 2021
$SHOP $SE* $PINS* $ETSY $CHWY
$SQ* $PYPL
$CRWD* $OKTA* $ZS
$FSLY* $NET $APPS $TWLO
$MDB* $DDOG* $PLTR*
$TDOC* $GDRX
$PTON
$SPOT
$ROKU* $TTD*
$ZM* $DOCU $CRM $U $FVRR
$UBER* $ABNB
Stocks I own = *
Others I own: $GRWG $TCEHY $CGC
Stocks to Watch 2021 - Full Analysis Blog Thread
$TDOC* $PINS* $CRWD* $FSLY* $NET $APPS $DDOG* $U $PTON $ROKU* $ZM* $DOCU $CRM $UBER* $ABNB
* = Stocks I own
Detailed analysis for each individual stock is within this thread, via screenshot from the blog
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THREAD | 20 STOCKS PULLING BACK, BASING or NEAR MA
$ZM $TDOC $DOCU $TCEHY $UBER $PLTR $GDRX $TTD $NET $DDOG $CRM $FSLY $FB $PINS $ZI $AMZN $NFLX $SE $JD $BABA
Leaders offering or about to offer interesting setups (to grab shares).
Some 2021 names or new portfolio adds...?
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Time to Sell?
If a stock's price is more than 70% above the 200d ma, it might be time to sell or take some profits.
Even William O'Neil lists this as a sell signal in his book How to Make Money in Stocks
5 Examples:
$ASAN 104%
$UPST 101%
$NET 89%
$AFRM 88%
$INMD 80%
Charts:
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When to Buy?
1. Buy during a bear market selling climax.
2. Buy on the test of a recent low.
3. Buy on a pattern breakout, with volume.
4. Buy on a pullback to moving average or support areas.
Don't Buy:
1. Late in a rally
2. Stage 4 breakdowns
3. Trying to guess a bottom
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$FB down 20% after hours
Others down big today, including after hours:
$SNAP down 25%
$SPOT down 22%
$PYPL down 27%
$PINS down 20%
$TWTR down 15%
Some major hits to major brands.
👀
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That wallstreetbets reddit site taken down at the server level.
They can cancel anything they want these days.
This is why we need decentralized sites using blockchain technology.
Not to manipulate stocks or elections but freedom from the control and cancel overlords.
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$TSLA went public on this day in 2010 at $17 per share.
The stock is up 22,660%
$10k = $2,276,000
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@Sundae_Gurl
That would be wrong and misleading...
The US averages ~7,700 deaths per day COVID or no COVID past several years.
195,000 died on October 1918, more than 6k per day.
I get what you are trying to do but misleading and way off!
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Throw back to when the State of Massachusetts prevented its citizens from buying $AAPL IPO because it deemed the security "too risky".
It's up 150,000%+ since.
1st Trillion $ company, twice over.
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This market can't go on like this forever. It will correct sharply one day and then fall for months.
I just don't know when that is. The fed pumping has lasting effects.
Too many think it's too easy right now.
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The key to every stock below the 200d is what happens when they get back there, from below.
Do they hit resistance & drop back down?
That's what I am watching.
Maybe a rally started, maybe it didn't 🤷♂️
Long term, the odds favor buys above the 200d ma!
Remember this chart:
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THREAD | 10 Steps to Profitable Trading
The secret to winning big in the market is not to be right all the time but to lose the least amount of money possible when you are wrong.
As long as you win larger than you lose, you will be a profitable trader at the end of each year.
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I want to take a moment to say THANK YOU to everyone in this community.
I've been writing, sharing & chatting about the market since before Twitter.
100k is unbelievable. It wouldn't be enjoyable without you!
You all rock - to continued success!
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Avoid Stage 4 Stocks
- Price is trading below 200d ma
- 200d ma is trending down
- Lower lows
- Lower highs
- Above ave volume on down days
- More down than up days
- Short term moving averages below longer term ma's
Many in stage 4 right now = highlighted on chart.
#Patience
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15 Quality Stocks at or near the 200d ma
$AAPL*
$ADBE
$AMAT
$APPS*
$CRWD*
$DOCU
$ESTC
$ETSY
$FB*
$MELI
$PYPL
$SHOP
$SQ*
$V*
$YETI
The stocks above have historically caught support or built bases at or near their respective 200d ma.
*stocks I own
Charts:
@MarketSmith
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Remember, so many stocks are still at point
#1
, downtrend below the down-sloping 200d ma.
Many will likely have to build/drag through zone 2, the base...
Before they can breakout at point 3, back above the 200d ma.
This is where I get most interested to buy big!
#patience
The key to every stock below the 200d is what happens when they get back there, from below.
Do they hit resistance & drop back down?
That's what I am watching.
Maybe a rally started, maybe it didn't 🤷♂️
Long term, the odds favor buys above the 200d ma!
Remember this chart:
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Michael Burry, of 'The Big Short' fame, compared the slowing housing market to 2008 saying it's like 'watching a plane crash'
👀🤷♂️
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Where did all the Cathie "buying the $PLTR dip" haters go? 🤷♂️
+70% from May low.
+40%-50% from summer lows.
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10 Brands for 10 Years
What are 10 KNOWN brands that you see dominating the next decade, the way FAANG have dominated the past 20 years?
IPOs from 2015 on:
$ABNB 2020
$ETSY 2015
$PINS 2019
$PTON 2019
$ROKU 2017
$SHOP 2015
$SQ 2015
$TDOC 2015
$UBER 2019
$ZM 2019
KNOWN BRANDS
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I paid my student loans back, I did the right thing as did millions.
If the government wants to forgive student loan debt, make the universities pay for it, not the tax payer.
Tap into those massive endowments.
Forgiving solves nothing. New debt starts accumulating tomorrow.
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Had I just bought $AAPL shares when I opened my account in February 1998 and sat on them until today ...
$5,000 would be worth $6,400,000+
Not bad for 25 years.
#perspective
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Stocks to Watch 2020 Update
+190.69% YTD
$COMPQ: +36.03%
$SPX: +12.62%
$DJIA: +4.81%
15 of 15 show a gain
10 of 15 +100% gain
$ZM $LVGO* $SE* $SQ* $CRWD* $SNAP $SHOP $ROKU* $MDB* $OKTA* $PYPL $STNE $WORK $TCEHY* $CGC*
*I currently own
$LVGO = $TDOC*
1) Stocks to Watch 2020 - Full Analysis Blog Thread
$STNE $OKTA $ROKU $ZM $LVGO $WORK $SQ $CGC $CRWD $TCEHY $PYPL $MDB $SNAP $SHOP $SE
I have posted the detailed analysis for each individual stock within this thread, via screenshot from the blog.
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To make money in stocks you must have the "the vision to see them, the courage to buy them and the patience to hold them".
"And Patience is the rarest of the three."
George F. Bakers (1840-1931) dictum:
Mentioned in Thomas Phelps book "100 to 1 in the Stock Market"
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"For a raging bull market, you need falling interest rates, a recession, lots of cash on the sidelines, good values in the market and a great deal of pessimism" - Zweig, 1986
We might be heading into that environment in 2023... 👀
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When to Buy?
Specific to a stage 4 decline:
Per Weinstein's stage analysis, the time to buy following a large drawdown is after a new Stage 1 setup (a base) and then a breakout above the high of that base = potentially a new Stage 2 move.
*200d ma is what I use (book = 30 wk)
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$AAPL $AMZN $MSFT and $GOOGL are now all below their respective 200 day moving averages.
If these guys go to stage 4 breakdowns - watch out!
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Stocks to Watch 2021
Week 1: +4.49%
$ROKU* $TDOC* $DOCU $PINS* $CRWD* $PTON $UBER* $NET $ZM* $ABNB $DDOG* $FSLY* $CRM $U $APPS
Stocks I own from this list = *
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The last time we saw Cathie Wood buy a stock w/ such conviction, it was $TSLA, when in the dumps.
Today, that stock is $TDOC
I own it as one of my largest positions so I have confirmation bias.
With that said, I love to see the conviction. She's a lot better at this than me.
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Worst bond market ever
Nasdaq down 21% YTD
S&P 500 down 13% YTD
Inflation at 40+ year high
Mortgage Rates at 13 year high
House prices at all time high
What a market!
When it ends, opportunities abound!
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I don't mind if they cancel up to $50k of student loan debt.
What concerns me is that government is doing NOTHING to fix the root cause of student loan debt.
We, as a nation, will be in the same spot in 5 years - new kids with masssive student loan debt.
Fix the cause as well.
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Tonight I'll profile a sneak peek of two new stocks that have a good shot at making the 2021 Stocks to Watch list.
I look for growth stocks that are in trending industries with upside potential.
Hint:
One in same industry as $ROKU
One in same industry as $TSLA
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Last March (2020), I remember when my shares of $SQ fell from $70s to the $30s... I froze.
Nothing changed so I held.
But, I really kicked myself for not buying more at those levels.
Thinking about that as we go through this tech sell-off.
What names offering discounts?
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Stocks to Watch 2020 | FINAL Results
Collective gain of 202.35%, if held all year.
1. All 15 stocks finished with a gain
2. 12 of 15 stocks had a 100%+ gain
Top Gainer: $LVGO +457%
$LVGO $ZM $SE $CRWD $SQ $SNAP $SHOP $MDB $ROKU $OKTA $PYPL $STNE $WORK $TCEHY $CGC
1) Stocks to Watch 2020 - Full Analysis Blog Thread
$STNE $OKTA $ROKU $ZM $LVGO $WORK $SQ $CGC $CRWD $TCEHY $PYPL $MDB $SNAP $SHOP $SE
I have posted the detailed analysis for each individual stock within this thread, via screenshot from the blog.
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The 30 growth stocks I said to watch on Jan 1st.
Now as growth corrects, I'm coming back to this list for potential future buys as they pullback and eventually base.
I currently own:
$SE $PINS $SQ $FSLY $NET $DDOG $PLTR $TDOC $ROKU $ZM $U
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MIND BLOWING
The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints' has an investment portfolio topping $100 billion that includes $47 billion invested in stocks.
Their top 10 holdings:
$AAPL
$MSFT
$GOOGL
$NVDA
$AMZN
$UNH
$META
$MA
$XOM
$TSLA
Portfolio is better than 99% on fintwit
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Cathie Wood's Ark Invest bought an additional 5.27 million shares of $PLTR today.
Ark now owns >9 million shares.
#longshares
#holding
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The percentage of stocks above their own 200 day moving average on the Nasdaq has dropped below 25% for the first time since April 2020.
It closed at 22.61% today.
The last 3 times we dropped below 25%, we went to sub 15%.
Will it happen this time?
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7 minutes you won't want to miss.
"Think Different"
You can go to school and spend years trying to learn about great marketing.
Or you can spend a few minutes watching Steve Jobs - all marketers should listen:
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Love this story:
Pic 1: Politician to Elon
Pic 2: Elon responds
Pic 3: Elon acts
California's loss is Texas' gain.
$TSLA
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$PLTR - $24.90, the number of institutional funds owning shares went from 193 to 464, a 140% jump last quarter.
That's a big jump in sponsorship.
Holding strong in Palantir!
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$PLTR
$1.1 billion in revenue for full year 2020, up 47% YoY
$322 million in revenue for Q4 2020, up 40% YoY
New contracts in Q4 include Rio Tinto, PG&E, bp, U.S. Army, U.S. Air Force, FDA & NHS
Expects Q1 2021 revenue growth of 45% YoY
#longshares
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I don't post much from my professional life but I can finally share an incredible project I have been working on, along with an amazing team (internal and external) over the past 2 years:
TikTok's NYC HQ in Times Square
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I started with a list of 37 stocks & have narrowed it down to 20 candidates for Stocks to Watch 2022.
Group Averages:
# of Funds: 431
Fund Increase Lst Qtr: +21%
Sales % Chg Lst Qtr: +101%
P/S (TTM): 26
Share Price: $96
% off 52 wk High: -39%
RS Rating: 70
IPO Past 2 yrs: 75%
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@BusinessFamous
My definition: One may consider themselves wealthy when passive income covers all expenses and you control your own time (at all times).
But that's just me.
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Names I really like if they pullback near the 200d ma:
Growth:
$SMCI
$MDB
$TTD
$GLBE
$CRWD
$SHOP
$ZS
$DDOG
$FROG
$MNDY
$IOT
$SOFI
$ON
Big Names:
$AAPL
$COST
$NFLX
$V
$MA
$NOW
$MSFT
$TSLA
$MELI
Note: most are trading below their own 50d ma but above their own 200d ma.
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@RichardMoglen
interviews me on Growth Investing
We verbally & visually cover (via MarketSmith):
My journey
Screening methods
Psychology
Accumulation & Distribution
50d / 200d
& much more!
Noted stocks:
$TTD $SHOP $ZM $ROKU $SE $TDOC $CHWY $DKNG
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A preview of what I am drafting up today for Stocks to Watch 2022.
The list contains 20 growth names to watch in 2022.
I currently own 6 of the names on the list with several new names that I have never owned & a few names that I have owned in the past.
It's a good mix.
$APPS
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When stocks don't go up on good news and strong earnings, it means one of two things, if not both.
Everything is priced in (for now)
and/or
Market health is questionable.
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My broken record statement on twitter has always been:
"They all come back to the 200d ma, eventually"
Many of the heavy hitting growth leaders of last year are there now.
Bases in this area, near thr 200d, are usually ideal to grab LONG term.
My sweet spot!
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Appears Ark bought 1.6 million shares today in $PLTR
$PLTR
$1.1 billion in revenue for full year 2020, up 47% YoY
$322 million in revenue for Q4 2020, up 40% YoY
New contracts in Q4 include Rio Tinto, PG&E, bp, U.S. Army, U.S. Air Force, FDA & NHS
Expects Q1 2021 revenue growth of 45% YoY
#longshares
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Early UK data shows cases soaring to all time highs while deaths staying flat.
Between vaccinations & natural immunity, & the historical 2 year mark for a pandemic approaching (ave length of past pandemics), we may be witnessing the beginning of the end of this COVID pandemic.
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Don't trust Wall Street analysts, do your OWN due diligence!
What's low, can go lower!
Enron taught me that 20 years ago as a young 20-something newbie in the market.
They recommended it the WHOLE way down, then rated it a "cut" after it already dropped 59%-99%.
#TalkingHeads
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"More people have lost money waiting for corrections and anticipating corrections than in the actual corrections." - Peter Lynch
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I'd be at least multiples of my current net worth if I sat in stocks from the early 2000s vs trading them.
I'm not making that same mistake from 45 to 65.
Sit and grow wealth!
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Who needs dividend stocks when a 100% risk-free savings account is paying 4.75% yield?
The going rate for a Goldman Sachs Marcus savings account is now 3.75%. I have received a 1% boost through Jan 2025 due to referrals.
4.75% is the highest savings yield in my adult life 🔥.
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🧵Stock Chart Stage Analysis
5 examples of stocks that just went through stages 2, 3 and 4 (all currently in stage 4).
Ideal Buy: In Stage 2 (above 200d)
Ideal Sell: In Stage 4 (below 200d)
$TDOC
$PTON
$ZM
$RDFN
$ROKU
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I pause when folks try to show off their wealth on social media --- it usually means they don't have it.
People that have money don't need to flaunt it.
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My wife's tire got a flat (puncture), so we took it back to Costco where we purchased the tires in 2021.
No charge, as it's covered by their 5 year warranty. Who knew... not me.
I love $COST as a shopper and shareholder.
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Here's a question for the weekend, coming off a strong week:
Does the 2023 market have a surprise like the 2002 market?
The Nasdaq rallied 51% in late 2001 (above 200d), with many stocks up more than 100% - only to make new lows.
The Nasdaq dropped 47% after that rally. 🤔😯
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Short term capital gains in USA:
Short-term capital gains are taxed just like your ordinary income. That's 10% to 37% depending on your tax bracket.
Keep in mind if you sell a stock to re-buy 10%-30% lower, you would have been better off holding and just buying more.
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Why do I follow Institutional Sponsorship?
$SE is the perfect example.
As sponsorship went from 256 Funds in Sept 2019 to 1,218 this past Qtr, the price went from $30 to $240+
Institutions move stocks over the long term - I just want to jump on for the ride.
Via
@MarketSmith
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$PLTR - $25.93, stock is basing nicely in triangle formation... looking for new breakout.
I own shares.
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**16 Must Read Stock Market Books**
Gifts for the Holidays!
Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
by Edwin Lefèvre
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They all come back to the 200 day moving average, eventually, every last one of them.
No exceptions.
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We really only have control over three things in life:
1. Our thoughts.
2. How we treat our bodies.
3. How we treat others.
Choose wisely.
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One billion dollars is mind boggling $
“If you worked every single day, making $5000/day, from the time Columbus sailed to America (1492), to the time you are reading this tweet, you would still not be a billionaire”
529 years
193,000+ days
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$NVDA provides a great example of buying the change in trend, back above the 200d ma vs trying to find a bottom.
The risk-to-reward is higher at Point A, as it recovers the 200d ma.
There's no guarantee that it will work but investing is about favorable odds.
$STUDY
#Patience
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$TDOC - $190.10, is a $29 billion company today.
It will surpass $100 billion in the future.
14.5x revenue NTM.
Today was another buying opportunity.
#longshares
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$PLTR exceeded earnings expectations and bumped its annual revenue forecast higher.
#HoldingShares
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I hear you and you are ALL right.
I am going to move on.
Stock screens only again tomorrow and beyond.
The good people of fintwit keeping me in check as I have fallen to some petty banter.
Poor judgment on my part, I'm very sorry.
Good night.
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What's My Watchlist
One list with 20 known names, some above their 200d ma & some below.
I want to see support at the 200d or a full base for names below the 200d ma
$MDB
$NVDA
$SNOW
$DDOG
$TTD
$AFRM
$U
$NET
$ETSY
$ABNB
$SHOP
$CRWD
$SOFI
$UPST
$SE
$APPS
$GLBE
$COIN
$DOCN
$FSLY
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When $NVDA opens tomorrow, it will be above a 100x return from Jan 1, 2015. It closed 2014 at $4.81 (split adjusted).
A 100 bagger in 8 years and 8 months.
$10,000 to $1,000,000
A 700 bagger over the past 20 years.
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1) THREAD | Stock Market Patience:
It’s what we all struggle with when it comes to investing.
Twitter is a haven for activity, lots of traders w/ action that is easy to get caught up in.
We all do at times.
Patience is what we are mentally trying to learn, fighting to grasp!
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The % of stocks trading above their respective 200d ma on the Nasdaq drops to a new 52-wk low to 28.03%, nearly entering the market correction zone which is below 25%.
It has only dropped below 25% four times over the past 10 years.
3 of the 4 times it went below 15%
$COMPQ
49
90
541