Jerry Welch @ commodityinsite.com
@commodityinsite
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Dad, So-So Fly Fisherman, Commodity Broker, and Author. There’s risk of loss in futures trading. Futures trading is not suitable for all investors.
Ennis, MT
Joined December 2016
Hi all, Jerry’s daughter here. Dad unexpectedly passed on Monday. We are in total shock, he was our world. He was so grateful to share what he loves with this community. Thank you for the support over the years. Yesterday we saw 3 moose together….you know what that means….❤️
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To leave a memory about Dad and for service info, please visit the below link ❤️ https://t.co/EwrDPplc3K
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Higher rates are bearish commodities. The 3rd Qtr that just ended had the sharpest rise with rates since 1987, 36 years ago. One market suffering greatly are grains. But I would not sell grains down here, “in the hole!” I would not be short!
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When a calf & cow moose do this it usually suggests…
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The main fundamental reason most all markets from grains to copper have done so poorly the past few months this: T-bonds in the 3rd Qtr. that ended Friday had the sharpest rise with interest rates since 1987. Higher rates is bearish as we all know so well.
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Across the board yesterday only copper & oj were higher. Bonds were higher but hit a 14 year low the day before. Grains collapsed but my soybean yield projection of 48.5 bu/acre for the upcoming WASDE report remains likely & if accurate; is damn bullish!
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This mornings USDA report was a bearish surprise & grain prices are sharply lower toy chagrin. Note too, sharply lower prices are also seen with livestock, gold, silver & most tropical markets. Ugh!
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Again: history shows stocks follow the lead of bonds. Right now, bond prices just fell to 112.13, the lowest since Oct. 2008, yes 2008. The Dow back then was under 9300 vs right now 33,781. But does history always repeat itself? Time will tell!
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Based on recent soybean yield results my estimate for the upcoming WASDE report is 48.5 bu/ acre. The last USDA estimate was 50.1 & mine was 50.0. If my new estimate is accurate soybean prices will rise to $15 a bushel PDQ. And I do mean PDQ!
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With 10 year Treasury yield hitting 16 year high today I am reminded that: “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” By John Maynard Keynes. My advice: Use a stop! Or, watch for moose signals!
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Oh, oh! In the past when moose calf runs to its mother, a cow moose it oftentimes means you know what. Not always but oftentimes!
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When reading my opinions on here keep in mind my 2 top rules: #1; No one knows for sure. Not for sure they don’t. And # 2: “Always use a stop.”
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This morning bond futures are down to levels last seen in March, 2010, 13 years ago. That means interest rates r soaring higher & that is bearish most all markets. However, the grain complex is showing independent strength in early dealings which is bullish!
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When I saw these buffalo crossing the Madison River in Yellowstone National Park I thought it was so cool. It would also be cool for last Tuesdays lows in the grain complex to hold this week. If they do, the complex should rally in this Fridays report!
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This is the first snow of the season here in Ennis, Montana. In the past, the soy complex followed closely by the wheat market rallied nicely into January.
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The, “funds” r short the 2nd largest corn position n history n largest short in wheat since ‘16. They are long soybeans however, but less than a year ago. History shows the”funds” tend to put the highs & lows in before a major tradable reversal. Avoid shorts
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Before the last WASDE report I forecast that contract highs would set with soybeans if the yield fell to 50.0 bu/acre or lower. The yield was pegged at 50.1 and bean prices fell sharply. The next WASDE report could show yields under 49.0 an acre. I’m bullish!
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The Fed did not hike rates yesterday but today bond prices collapsed & yields rose to levels last seen late ‘09. In late ‘09 the Dow was 10,200 vs now 34,500. History shows stocks follow the lead of bonds. So do cattle. Today, the markets r hiking rates!
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Demand for beef is starting to tumble badly. The most difficult fundamental to gauge is demand because it can surface or disappear without warning. If beef demand slips much further December cattle may fall to $180. Avoid the long side of cattle for now!
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My most sensitive work hints the grain complex will bottom today. My most reliable private research firm is calling for a low tomorrow. However we have both been wrong about the grains for some time. But any grain that closes higher today validates my work.
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