Nik
@cointradernik
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Once wrote a book about magic internet money.
Joined March 2014
ANNOUNCEMENT 👀 Anyone miss the weekly Market Outlooks I published for 5 years? Well, thanks to @OstiumLabs, they’re back - and you can now read them for free. 🫡 I’ll also be publishing periodic deep dives into market cycles, positioning, liquidity and more. Again, all for
Launching Weekly Market Outlooks with @cointradernik! 📣 Today, we're publishing the first of an ongoing series by Nik for Ostium at the intersection of crypto X macro. More on why below 🧵
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This week’s Outlook is now available👇 It’s another week that’s light on the macro front but heavy on the speeches — though we all know that’s not the point of interest this week… After the chaos of last Friday, I’ve provided updated views on Q4 & Q1 for $HTC $ETH $DXY and
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We are currently in the ‘confluence of sell the news narratives’ stage of this view
Some thoughts going into Q4: If we close green today on risk across the board after the intraday whipsaw yesterday, I think that helps carry momentum through to FOMC next week (and likely a little bit beyond) There’s little Powell can say that would be more dovish than the
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One obvious thing I did completely overlook btw is gov shutdown = no ETF approvals yet, despite all the deadlines over the next two weeks So that catalyst is still a little ways off
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For anyone asking ‘wen crypto’ because everything else is running, I already gave you the TL;DR on what I’m expecting time-wise BTC $125k next week and $133k end of month ETH $5k end of month November altszn / uponly / froth Dec shakeout / profit-taking It’s all in the
Some TL;DRs for those who cba to wait for the article on X / have the attention spans of a goldfish 🫡 And maybe I’m wrong and we chop for months or maybe I’m wrong and we’ve just started a bear market with the 4-year cycle now complete I don’t think I am though
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Think equities bottom today or tomorrow Will be looking for various divergences over the next 48 hours
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IWM closed in price discovery with smallcap futures pushing new all-time highs in spite of a fresh round of orange man headlines
High Beta vs Low Vol -> Consumer Discretionary vs Consumer Staples -> Russell -> Crypto ex. Top 10 The risk curve in real time with the former two providing the signal for the market environment we are in and the forward outlook that is being priced If high beta is in price
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Reintroduce old conflict -> market dumps -> offer conflict resolution -> market pumps Higher-highs, higher-lows and a perpetual wall of worry This is the game
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Kinda uncanny and something something history doesn’t repeat but rhyme
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This is not what the beginning of a bear market looks like Sorry guys, higher 🫡
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Smallcaps new highs Smallcaps were underperforming prior to the selloff and were my first sign in late Sept of potential vol event as shared on here ( https://t.co/F4ascNqC1g) Decent chance they are also signalling the selloff is now largely over
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Interesting
PAUL TUDOR JONES PREDICTS NASDAQ WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER BY YEAR-END
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Now we pray to the Bitcoin gods Weekly open reclaim = *the* bottom is in
This week’s Outlook is now available👇 It’s another week that’s light on the macro front but heavy on the speeches — though we all know that’s not the point of interest this week… After the chaos of last Friday, I’ve provided updated views on Q4 & Q1 for $HTC $ETH $DXY and
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Wen BTC 91.8 monthly RSI ???? Can the devs do something ???
JUST IN 🚨: Gold reaches most overbought level in history after hitting 91.8 on the monthly RSI 🤯👀
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Think equities bottom today or tomorrow Will be looking for various divergences over the next 48 hours
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Everything going according to plan for higher for longer into Q1 imo
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First naked swing long on $BTC since Sept 20th Punish me swiftly if I am wrong, reward me greatly if I am right 🫡
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