A decade of framework thinking. Three books. One thread. 2015: Tension is the energy of innovation 2019: Change your identity, change your future 2026: America's biggest problems are becoming our greatest advantages America's Stubborn Allure — coming June 2026 from Forbes Books.

This is one smart man……

Heading towards zero conservative journalists and professors.

A best-selling author who is not a member of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints wrote this after studying the Church and its members.

Boiling the Oceans? The Exponential Curves the Climate Worriers Missed https://t.co/YXX7T3gjhM

🔥🚨 BREAKING: The Tongva Tribe in California FIRES BACK at Billie Eilish and her Grammy speech: "As the First People of the greater Los Angeles basin, we do understand that her home is situated in our ancestral land. Eilish HAS NOT contacted our tribe directly regarding her

https://t.co/zKQIOahJUI

"AI is boiling the oceans!" I keep hearing this. So I ran the numbers. What I found: the catastrophists are extrapolating linearly into an exponential future. Here's what they're missing

If we'd banned data centers in 2007 because they used 2.5 watts of overhead per watt of computing, we'd have frozen the industry at its LEAST efficient moment. And prevented the 38% efficiency improvement that actually happened. Moratoriums don't solve problems. They freeze them.

I live in Utah. We're a desert. The Great Salt Lake is dying. But when Gov. Spencer Cox was asked about data centers threatening water supplies, he pushed back: "Most data centers do not consume water. This is a big misnomer." He's watching the trajectory, not the snapshot.

Arizona golf courses use 29 billion gallons/year. Arizona data centers use 905 million gallons/year. Golf: 32x more water consumption. Data centers: 50x more tax revenue per gallon. Selective outrage isn't environmental policy. It's culture war.

In August 2024, Microsoft announced ALL new data centers will use zero-water cooling. Not "reduced water." Zero. Closed-loop systems that fill once during construction, then recirculate forever. The technology transition the moratorium crowd wants to freeze is already happening.

By 2030, we'll get 191,000x more compute per gallon of water than in 2007. That's not a typo. That's exponential improvement. The "boiling the oceans" crowd is making the same mistake as the "cities buried in horse manure" crowd of 1894.

"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." — Albert Bartlett Data center water panic in one sentence. The catastrophists extrapolate today's problems linearly into a future technology is reshaping exponentially.

After reading and listening to dozens of AI thought leaders worry about how AI is going to take all the water and boil the oceans, I decided to do a deep dive on this topic, and the reality is that we already deploy AI data centers that consume NO water after they are initially

In this episode, I go ALL-IN with @chamath and @NathalieDompe on leaving California, tech investments, their marriage, and a potential run for political office. 0:00 – Introduction 1:26 – California’s Wealth Exodus 2:00 – The “Red Pill” Moment 4:01 – Evolution of Their

Also left a detailed comment on Noah's original piece exploring these ideas. The question isn't whether Chinese competition is unfair (it is). The question is whether unfair competition leads us to build resilience or maintain dependencies.

The Creative response to Chinese EVs: ✅ Mandatory joint ventures (force tech transfer) ✅ Escalating local content (75% by year 5) ✅ Leverage federalism (states compete) ✅ Free speech advantage (transparency as weapon) Full analysis:

What actually works? Taiwan chips: Stay ahead despite IP theft German machines: Precision they can't copy Japanese autos: Built US factories, 400K jobs Pattern: Capability-building under pressure succeeds, even against state-sponsored

The evidence on protection without capability-building is brutal: Solar panels: 12 years of tariffs → capacity DECLINED Steel: 25% tariffs → production flat Rare earths: subsidies → went bankrupt anyway Protection delays collapse. It doesn't prevent it.

In the 1980s: "Japan as Number One" will overwhelm us In the 1960s: "Soviet planning will surpass us" Now: "Chinese state capitalism will destroy us" Same pattern. Same anxiety. Same misdiagnosis. Coordinated state capitalism contains fatal flaws.