I’m writing to share a story. It’s about a market meant to save the Amazon rainforest, which has ended up profiting people who are speeding its destruction.

Exclusive: Google deal for Amazon reforestation makes Brazilian startup its top carbon credit supplier. #COP30 By @bzbrad Brad Haynes https://t.co/Ufswe9PBEX

Em português:

Only a few of those voices could make it into the story, but all of them gave me hope in their collective ability to learn from cautionary tales like this one.

It’s also been a privilege to learn about these new conservation markets – how they can work or fail – from some of the smartest economists, entrepreneurs and public servants trying to get them right.

Huge thanks to the reporting partners whose talent and dedication made this project possible: Jackie Botts, @brito_ricardo and @jakespring. The pictures by Adriano Machado and @uesleimarcelino are like haunting memories of our reporting trips.

We wanted to know how many were run by people with a public track record of participating in illegal deforestation. The answer surprised me and everyone else that I’ve shown our findings. I hope you’ll give it a read:

In one case, federal police said the sales were funding one of the biggest illegal logging rings in the Amazon. I found that alarming, so started digging with my colleagues into every project we could find offering carbon credits to protect the Brazilian Amazon.

A couple years ago, I started hearing about Brazilian ranchers with patchy environmental records making millions off conservation projects. These ‘carbon cowboys’ sold credits for companies to offset their greenhouse emissions – but I was curious where all that money was going.

Brazil fire brigades fight Amazon blazes off to torrid start in 2024

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Brazil police seize Bolsonaro's passport and accuse him of preparing a decree to overturn election results, then pressuring military chiefs to join an attempted coup. https://t.co/WMOgcTpKwl

Brazil lawmakers pass bill to pave a highway through the rainforest, loosening environmental rules and using conservation money from the Amazon fund. https://t.co/huV85iuZc6

Props to @jakespring for his unmatched expertise and sourcing on the rainforest science. @BrunoKellyphoto was a great partner digging into this story from drought-ravaged Manaus. And it was a pleasure as always to edit with @suzyji

The irony is that Brazil is making real progress against deforestation in the Amazon – down to a five-year low after surging in recent years. But it could be a tinderbox next year. The new government will have to fight fires as hard as they’ve tackled deforestation so far.

The forest itself is also being pushed to its limits, which may double the mortality of big trees and raise the risk of major fires, scientists say. Lula warned the #COP28 climate summit last week that the Amazon could pass a point of no return even without felling another tree.

The impacts are already scary. Extreme heat and dryness has killed hundreds of endangered dolphins, withered crops and made rivers unpassable, cutting off food, medicine and commerce for about half a million people.

Scientists say they’ve never seen anything like it. Hut tub temps in the N. Atlantic kept things bone dry for months. Now a “Super El Niño” in the Pacific is weakening annual rains. It may be late 2024 before good rains arrive and early 2026 when the rainforest fully recovers.

The Amazon and its tributaries have hit record lows, as an extreme drought driven by climate change threatens life in the world’s largest rainforest. The worst may be yet to come. A thread on what @jakespring and I discovered about the dangers ahead… https://t.co/9HE4exhglO

Amazon drought set to worsen next year and forest will likely only fully recover its soil moisture by 2026, scientists told me. That means giant Amazon trees in particular likely to die with bad climate consequences. "This is the overture" https://t.co/iMTP3NYRHf W/ @bzbrad